By: StLouHoo
It’s a tough year to rack-and-stack the ACC, tougher even than usual, and not just because we have three new programs that we know very little about. Don’t get me wrong, figuring out Cal, Stanford, and SMU is plenty difficult, especially since all three are effectively in total rebuild scenarios with new or near-near head coaches. But I think that after (*sigh*) Duke and maybe UNC, there really aren’t clear cut powers in the league. Similarly, aside from the likes FSU, BC, and Stanford, I don’t see a lot of easy outs either. The “middle” of the league runs effectively from #2 to #15, where I think many nights for many teams will be tossups. With an unprecedented amount of roster turnover for almost every team in the league, uncertainty has never been so high, but where’s the fun in not at least taking a stab at a Power Ranking anyways?
#1 – Duke – The Devils bring back two proven blue chip guards in Tyrese Proctor (30.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg) and Caleb Forster (25.4 mpg, 7.7 ppg) to provide stability to an otherwise wholly rebuilt roster. Jumbo wing Cooper Flagg is the most pro-ready college freshman in years. A trio of proven mid/high-major transfers (Tulane’s Sion James, Purdue’s Mason Gillis, and Syracuse’s Maliq Brown, all Top 60 transfers in EvanMiya.com’s rankings) provide the veteran depth to complement additional 5-star prospects like wings Kon Knueppel (#18 national recruit per 247) and Isaiah Evans (#13), plus bigs Khaman Maluach (#4) and Patrick Ngongba (#21). Jon Scheyer has a “no excuses” lineup as Duke enters the season the favorite both for an ACC title and a Final Four run.
#2 – UNC – Returning the starting backcourt from the ACC’s #1 seed, senior RJ Davis (21.2 ppg, 3.5 apg, all-ACC 1st Team) and sophomore Elliot Cadeau (7.3 ppg, 4.1 apg) is an enviable starting spot for Hubert Davis, though Cadeau has yet to live up to his #12 ranking in the ’23 class. Two one-and-done prospects in Ian Jackson and Drake Powell will dominate wing minutes, giving UNC big scoring upside but half-court defensive risks. A transfer portal rebuild of the front court (Belmont’s Cade Tyson, Vanderbilt’s Ven-Allen Lubin, GT’s Tyzhuan Claude) offers offensive versatility but lacks size. Still a top ACC team but a little more susceptible to upsets this year.
#3 – Louisville – There arguably isn’t a more intriguing team going into the season than the Cards, the ultimate “new look” team with a completely turned over rostrer and coaching staff. Pat Kelsey was dominant in previous stops in the Big South and CAA, and his depth chart will boast 9 Top 250 transfers, seven of whom are 4th or 5th years. It’s a fascinating experiment that makes Louisville near-impossible to predict. But the talent is absolutely there to make a run for the top of the conference, the Cards got the added benefit from a summer foreign tour to build additional chemistry, and Kelsey is arguably one of the brightest coaching prospects in the game having won combined conference regular season + tournament titles in five of the last eight seasons at Charleston and Winthrop. It’s not crazy to think they could make a run in the ACC this season as well.
#4 – Wake Forest – The Deacons have the enviable benefit of returning 1st Team all-ACC guard Hunter Sallis (18 ppg, 41% 3P%) along with three other rotation players from last year’s 21-14 (11-9) squad. Louisville’s Ty-Laur Johnson (8.7 ppg, 3.6 apg) becomes the new PG and will need to improve on his consistency, as additional former 4-stars Davin Cosby and Juke Harris will work in as reserves behind senior Cam Hildreth (13.8 ppg, 35% 3P%). The frontcourt boasts senior Efton Reid (9.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg) who will be supported by two transfers: App State workhorse senior Tre’Von Spillers and Iowa State former 5-star Omaha Biliew. With Reid and Sallis, coach Steve Forbes has proven his ability to get the most out of blue chip transfers, so if he can work similar magic with the likes of Johnson, Cosby, and/or Biliew, this could absolutely be the season Wake breaks free from the Bubble and pushes for the league’s top tier.
#5 – Clemson – The Tigers get to pair incumbent 5th year guard Chase Hunter (12.9 ppg, 3.2 apg) with 5th year BC transfer guard Jaeden Zachery (11.3 ppg, 4.2 apg, 41% 3P%) for one of the league’s best backcourts. Double-double machine Ian Schieffelin (10.1 ppg, 9.4 rpg, Honorable Mention All-ACC) is back, while Cincinnati transfer center Viktor Lakhin (9.2 ppg, 6 rpg) steps in for PJ Hall, with Chauncey Wiggins and Illinois State transfer Myles Foster giving good front court depth. Guard/wing depth is an issue and could cap Clemson’s upside, so some step back from last year is possible, though there’s enough proven talent that another NCAAT berth should be likely.
#6 – Southern Methodist – Andy Enfield quickly settled into a “consistently good but rarely great” comfort zone at USC, and was hired to quickly raise SMU’s profile. The Mustangs boast one of the league’s better-looking guard tandems with returning Chuck Harris (13.4 ppg, 3.4 apg, 41% 3P%) and Wake transfer Kevin Miller (15.6 ppg, 3.5 apg, 37% 3P%). The front court boasts A-10 1st Team stretch forward Matt Cross (15.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg at UMass) and former 5-star recruit Yohan Traore (14.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg at UCSB). Depth needs to shake out, but with 10 players who averaged double-digit minutes per game last year in addition to three rookies, Enfield has a ton of options to work with. Bottom line is that there’s enough here for SMU to make an impact in their first year in the ACC, especially at home where visitors have a long haul to get to Dallas, and an NCAAT appearance is a realistic target.
#7 – Virginia – Virginia hasn’t finished worse than 6th in the ACC in over a decade, but Tony Bennett’s teams tend to underperform (relative to peak) when facing a lot of year-over-year turnover. With Isaac McKneely (12.3 ppg, 45% 3P%) the only locked in returning starter, the Hoos will be leaning hard on veteran role player transfers like SDSU’s Elijah Saunders (6.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg) and FSU’s Jalen Warley (7.5 ppg, 2.8 apg), plus betting on rising 4-star sophomores Dai Dai Ames (#83 in 247’s 2023 ranking), TJ Power (#17), and Blake Buchanan (#82). Four of the Hoo transfers did rank in EvanMiya’s Top 250, but heavy turnover rosters like this under Bennett typically end up in Bubble territory. With the middle of the league more competitive this year, a similar result is likely.
#8 – NC State – Kevin Keatts has made a strong attempt to reload after losing the majority of his starting rotation from last year’s Final Four run. Returning senior guards Michael O’Connell (5.7 ppg, 3.2 apg, 38% 3P%) and Jayden Taylor (11.2 ppg, 36% 3P%) will serve as team leaders, while a trio of proven high-major transfers likely round out the starting lineup up front in Louisville wing Michael James (12.6 ppg, 5 rpg), Georgetown forward Dontrez Styles (12.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg), and Louisville big Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (12.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg). Keatts has talent to play with off the bench as well with underclassman 4-stars at both guard and forward spots, plus senior big man Ben Middlebrooks in the post. On paper there’s a lot to like, but remember Keatts went only 9-11 in the ACC last season even with Final Four level talent; he’s historically a very .500 kind of coach in the league, finishing between 9-11 and 12-8 in six of his seven seasons at State. Oh, and remember, the prior two seasons have seen ACC clubs follow up Final Four appearances with missing the Dance entirely (UNC and Miami), so State can’t take anything for granted.
#9 – Syracuse – Only two rotation players return from last year’s 20-win Orange team, perimeter players JJ Starling (13.3 ppg) and Chris Bell (12 ppg, 42% 3P%), so 2nd year coach Adrian Autry will need to get a lot out of transfers and rookies to bounce back. Hofstra transfer Jaquan Carlos (10.4 ppg, 6.3 apg) is the likely 3rd starter and floor general, while young former-4-star talents Kyle Cuffe Jr (RS Soph), Elijah Moore (Freshman), and Chance Westry (RS Soph) compete for reserve roles, so there’s no shortage of talent to work with. Potential one-and-done Donnie Freeman slots into the 4-spot with Colorado center Eddie Lampkin (10.6 ppg, 7 rpg) at center, though front court depth is worrisome to the point we may see 5-out lineups. The Orange have enough firepower to stay competitive, but have just enough questions that they stay stuck in the pack for another year.
#10 – Pittsburgh – The Panthers have finished T-3rd and 4th in the ACC the last two seasons, and get to lean on four returning rotation players as they look to keep momentum. Returning guards Jaland Lowe (9.6 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Ishmael Leggett (12.3 ppg, 34% 3P%) will be able to shoulder more load in Bub Carrington’s absence, with Houston transfer Damien Dunn taking on a glue0guy role on the wing. FSU forward Cam Forhen (9.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) will try to fill Blake Hinson’s giant shoes, while Capel needs the Diaz-Graham twins to turn a corner into starter-quality contributors. This roster feels a couple pieces short barring breakouts from a five-man freshman class, and probably slides back into the middle of the pack this season.
#11 – Georgia Tech – The Jackets have a respectable floor with the returning core of PG Naithan George (9.8 ppg, 4.7 apg), wing Kowacie Reeves (9.8 ppg, 38% 3P%), and big Baye Ndongo (12.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg), and have quality reinforcements coming with shooting specialist Lancy Terry back after a missed injury year plus Oklahoma transfer guard Javian McCollum. Depth, especially in the front court behind Ndongo and Colorado transfer Luke O’Brien, is a big question mark with four freshmen in the mix for roles. But the pieces are there for the Jackets to push for an NCAAT invite in coach Stoudamire’s second season.
#12 – Notre Dame – The Irish looked ahead of schedule in Micah Shrewsberry’s first season as the head coach. PG Markus Burton (17.5 ppg, 4.3 apg) was a freshman sensation earning Honorable Mention All-ACC honors, and fellow rookie SG Braeden Shrewsberry (10.2 ppg, 37% 3P%) surprised as well. 5th year Princeton guard Matt Allocco (12.7 ppg, 43% 3P%) strengthens a deep backcourt rotation that also has three incumbent reserves and two 4-star freshmen inbound. The big rotation is somewhat of a concern as inbound transfers feature a big step up in competition, though returning juniors Tae Davis and Kebba Njie have a solid floor. The Irish have the kind of roster stability, culture, and forward momentum that we’ve seen from the likes of Mike Young’s Hokies in recent years that could have the Irish sniffing around .500 in league play and pushing for an NIT bid, though admittedly they won’t have the benefit of sneaking up on teams like last year.
#13 – Miami – It’s hard to peg Miami when, with essentially the same roster over the last two years, they followed up a Final Four run in 2023 with a 14th place ACC finish last season. Only Nigel Pack (13.3 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Matthew Cleveland (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) are back from last year’s rotation but a few top transfers arrive to reinforce both the perimeter (Samford’s AJ Staton-McCray, Stetson’s Jalen Blackmon) and front court (ECU’s Brandon Johnson, VT’s Lynn Kidd). All in all Jim Larranaga will have 7 seniors in the rotation plus one-and-done prospect Jalil Bethea, so this very much feels like an “all-in” play from the coach. But he’s had only two winning ACC records in the last six seasons, so it’s hard to bet on them to put all the pieces together, especially on the defensive end. My guess is this season ultimately shows only a modest improvement on last season’s record.
#14 – California – In his second year at Cal, Mark Madsen has brought in a good-on-paper haul of transfers to remake his roster. The headlines are at the 3-through-5-spots, with Air Force wing Rytis Petraitis, Stanford forward Andrej Stojakovic, and Michigan State big Mady Sissoko all Top 200 transfers in EvanMiya’s rankings. The guard pickups were lower profile leave some depth questions, though, so Madsen may struggle to pull this team together overnight. Expect them to be a quiet presence hovering around the league’s middle tier, probably struggling on east coast trips but overperforming at home against jet lagged visitors.
#15 – Virginia Tech – The Hokies managed a .500 league finish last year but saw an exodus of talent to better paying NIL opportunities, and return only role players from last year’s team, the closest thing to a headliner being 5th year big man Mylyjael Poteat (14.5 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg). Their front court looks okay with additions of Charleston’s Ben Burnham (11.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg), VCU’s Toibu Lawal (7.7 ppg, 6 rpg, 43% 3P%), and 4-star freshman Ryan Jones. But the guard rotation is questionable at best aside from high-usage/low-efficiency Temple transfer Hysier Miller, and this feels like a season where a lot of the league has simply passed the low-budget Hokies by.
#16 – Stanford – Cardinal made one of the best coaching hires of the offseason in reigning Pac-12 COY Kyle Smith from Washington State, but he’s facing a tough first year with the roster almost entirely rebuilt. Stanford does have a top notch center to build around in returning senior Maxime Raynaud (15.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg last year in the Pac-12), but aside from Harvard big man Chisom Okpara (16.5 ppg in Ivy League), the rest of Smith’s depth chart is former role players and 3-star rookies. With only two seniors on the roster, have to peg this as a “maybe next year” team.
#17 – Florida State – The Leonard Hamilton backslide continues after the mass exodus of 10 players (3 graduations, seven transfers), backfilled with a fairly underwhelming transfer haul and rookie class. Returning wing forward Jamir Watkins (15.6 ppg, 6 rpg, Honorable Mention All-ACC) is an all-ACC talent, but after him the best looking options are Top 100 rookie PG Daquan Davis, rising junior returning wing Chandler Jackson (15.6 mpg, 4.9 ppg off the bench last year), and #1 JuCo prospect Malique Ewin (247’s #118 recruit in the 2022 class). Otherwise its low-major transfers and unheralded 3-star rookies (many raw internationals) that could land the Noles in the ACC’s basement, Watkins’ presence the only reason I think they’ll avoid last place entirely, and bring an ignominious end to Hamilton’s long, impressive career.
#18 – Boston College – The Eagles got rewarded for their best season in years (20 wins, NIT) with five rotation players chasing NIL bags at “better” programs. RS Sophomore Donald Hand (15 mpg, 5 ppg) is the most veteran returner, and coach Earl Grant could mostly only round out his roster with low/mid-major callups (UMBC, SE Louisiana, St Bonaventure) and 3-star recruits. Due to a total lack of established post depth, BC will likely have to play drastically undersized with a 4-guard base lineup. A big step back is ultimately expected for BC this year.
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Alright, a note from Cuts here – thanks to StLouHoo for this series of roster turnover and power rankings! Stay on the lookout for more content from him as we get closer to the season.
Next week, I’ll tag back in for a little thought piece as we continue to wait for the Blue/White scrimmage. Until then!
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