This is a really weird season. Ostensibly, we have a coach who is competing for his job… but he isn’t really coaching like that. He’s coaching like someone who is running a long-standing program with a multi-year plan who is guaranteed to retain a large portion of his roster. Yet, we’re aware of the fact that’s incredibly unlikely even if he stays.
Coach Sanchez is still running the program in the style that CTB would (with a few subtle differences) just without the same in-game savvy or gravitas. That makes it hard to know what to root for because, while we’d definitely like to see improvement, it’s not an approach that I have much confidence in moving forward. We’re at a crossroads where we need a positive jolt for the program and pressing on with this style of basketball but in a worse way doesn’t seem like the way to accomplish that. It’s a bit like Christina Aguilera’s prophetic hit “Season In A Bottle”, clearly written anticipating this year of UVa basketball (she was ahead of her time), where my body’s saying “let’s go!” but my mind is saying, “no.”
That being said, Coach Sanchez should realize this and act accordingly. What can he do to inject some energy? What can he do to change the trajectory of the season? What can he do to alter the narrative about his interim tenure and the direction of the program? It would appear that his view on that is to hold the status quo, to gradually improve, and to be better by year’s end. But I’m of the opinion that won’t be enough to show the necessary strides; especially given how he’s been utilizing this roster.
So what, realistically, can he do? I’d focus on two main things: pushing guys to take the first quality look they get with confidence (fighting back against the philosophy of passing up good for great), and leaning into our roster advantages; our size, without compromising shooting.
Shoot It!
This first section is going to be pretty easy on my end; it’s just going to be highlighting standout possessions and pointing out where, in my opinion, we should have shot the ball earlier in the possession than we did, really regardless of outcome later in the possession. We were fortunate on a few late shot clock buckets in this one, and there were also times that we weren’t, but we certainly don’t have the luxury to pass up open looks this season given our guard play and lack of ability to create off of the bounce.
Despite all of the offseason hullabaloo, we’re once again dead last in DI in pace of play by over a full half of a possession. This does nothing to change the narrative about our style, especially when it’s been so ineffective. You might make the argument that this has been by necessity as it’s taken so long to get the ball up the court and to get into our offensive sets as teams have increasingly relied on ball pressure and pass denial to attempt to disrupt our flow. You wouldn’t necessarily be wrong… but there still have been plenty of times in games where we’ve passed up open looks generated by the offense to continue to run the offense. That really has to stop happening. For one, because our turnover rate has been so bad that you aren’t even guaranteed to get a shot off but, secondly, because it’s very likely that the shot later in the possession won’t be so open. Given our trouble with initiation, our goal in any given possession should simply be to take an open and quality shot; and we can further accomplishing that by taking the opportunities that present themselves. Basically, any open three from anyone not named Buchanan or Robinson, any reasonable shot in the lane with a slight advantage, even mid-range jumpers if they’re wide-open (although, of course, be more judicious about these).
Of course, we could really go down the rabbit hole of things we could do to improve our offense (syncing up motion away from the ball while the important actions are happening would be a big one). This is a really quick and easy improvement opportunity, though, that wouldn’t really require any additional investment of time or resources.
So, let’s take a look at many (not all) of the times where the offense generated a quality look that we passed up. I’ll keep the play throughout so we can see the outcome, but I’m not evaluating the decision based on what happens afterward. Whether or not we turn it over or get a better shot at the end doesn’t impact the decision at the time we make it. Collectively this season, we know that running our offense has not yielded great looks and has created a very high turnover rate – so I think it’d be hard to argue that passing up opportunities is the correct decision.
In this first clip, Ames lands a really nice pin down screen on iMac’s man with Cofie staggering. McKneely curls too far into Cofie’s man, if he snaps that cut off on the catch the shot is wide-open here. Still, he’s got space to shoot over the contest from Matt Rogers (#15) if he’s ready on the catch, which is the look this set is supposed to be doing. He just needs to be aggressive with his shot timing and selection – iMac shooting a somewhat closely contested three is still a good shot for us in most cases, especially when he’s in rhythm. What’s worse, though, is even if he’s going to sit on this switch and not shoot, both he and Dai Dai need to identify the mismatch with the 6’2″ Geoff Sprouse (#12) getting switched onto Cofie and get him the ball!
Shoot it or target the mismatch. Poor decision-making across both caused a poor Ames contested turnaround jumper that missed everything. This is a, “Shoot it!” section, but I’m especially keyed into the lack of understanding of when you have an advantage and not going to it in that clip.
This next clip, below, we have Ishan Sharma on the floor who is also a quick-release sharpshooter who would benefit from reps and opportunity. Keep this clip in the back of your mind for a later section as we see Saunders put the ball on the ground from the perimeter and cause American to have to collapse with two defenders. He does this against the 6’6″ Lincoln Ball (#4) who is sized as many SFs are even though he’s defending the PF. If you pause at 11 seconds into the clip, you’ll see three American defenders collapse around Saunders with one more trying to play help side between Buchanan and Murray. Saunders throws a bounce pass out to Sharma who should step into this pass and take the shot (around 11-12 seconds). Instead, he’s backing up on the catch and immediately turns away from the closeout, killing the advantage of the drawn defense. He attempts to thread a tough pass past the post denial and turns it over.
If Sharma was aggressively hunting his shot, as I feel he should be, that’s a three-point attempt over a closeout from a smaller player.
Here’s another look from Sharma, this one more glaring as there are really two times he should have shot the ball. The first on the catch against the zone rotation at 6 seconds into the clip (14 seconds on the shot clock). It’s a simple but through and pass to the wing but American is slow with their close out and Sharma could/should try to punish this. But then, at 11 seconds into the clip and 9 still left on the shot clock, he takes a return pass from Cofie with Power setting a screen for him. There’s another opportunity to set and fire. We know he has the range. Instead, he just dribbles into the two collapsing defenders and kicks the ball around and we end up with a desperation Power shot.
Both shot opportunities from Sharma were better than the one we got, for sure, but outcome aside, both were just solid looks for a very good shooter with range and a quick release. Don’t pass these up. Shoot it!
Here’s a look at Taine from the corner with about 16 seconds on the shot clock off of a good pass from Buchanan. Shoot it! There’s more than enough room to shoot over that close out. Instead, he probes baseline, gets cut off, and we get a no-touch shot from Buchanan trying to crack the backboard.
Again, it’s not even the shot we got at the end – a hook shot in the paint isn’t a bad look, it just requires better execution, but that opportunity for Taine if he’s ready on the catch and shoot is both better and just good in general for a good shooter. Not every look can or should have no defender trying to contest.
Here’s McKneely passing up a clean look in transition with Rohde laying the ball back to him and shielding the defender. McKneely is just inside of the logo – but well-within his range. Instead, he pump-fakes, resets the offense, and we get a contested runner from Rohde at the end.
Speaking of how our pace of play hasn’t increased, that’s a great example of us just being unwilling to play at the temp it would need to. The opportunity was there, and we should always want McKneely to pull an open look. But, also, even though we aren’t focused on any one outcome, it’s still worth noting that the looks we’re getting (or not) after slowing down and running our offense aren’t often any better (and are often much worse) than the first opportunity.
Here’s Rohde passing up a clean look from outside on the wing with 17 seconds to go in the shot clock. Perhaps we’d say last year’s Rohde was better served not to take this… but this year’s Rohde is shooting almost 45% from deep! Instead we get him driving and trying to finish around the basket – which I also don’t hate (he didn’t have the touch in this one but in general shots like this around the rim aren’t terrible) – but give me that 45% shooter firing with confidence and that quick release.
Here, below, we actually see that quick release from Rohde at the end of the play after a nice find from Saunders at the end of the shot clock… but iMac loses his man under the hoop and gets a great look for himself at 10 seconds to go in the shot clock. Why he passes this up to attempt to drive baseline, I have no idea. It’s another decent slow drive in from Saunders and find for Rohde in the corner. And that’s a really nice catch and release from Rohde with almost no wasted motion – but that’s a more difficult shot than the one iMac declined!
In this next one, below, we’ve just seen Rohde with the effective catch and shoot – do it here! He’s got a nice two-man game with Cofie who gets into the lane, sucks in the defense, and kicks out. Rohde should pull the trigger at 16 seconds in the shot clock. Instead, he resets the offense and attempts to attack the mismatch with the switch off the bounce, but rushes the layup.
I don’t mind Rohde recognizing the switch and attempting to attack the mismatch. That’s what I want other players on the team to do as well when the situation calls for it. But, Rohde has been shooting well – own it here.
These final two are with Cofie who appears to have gotten away from his outside shot altogether, which we can’t have. We need him not allowing opponents to sag off of him because he’ll take the shot; has to keep his confidence even if they aren’t going in. First, he’s WIDE open after Rohde draws two and passes back with 23 seconds left in the shot clock. If he takes this and misses, he probably hears it from the coaches about how much time we had in the clock left. He shouldn’t hear it from them. He should be encouraged to shoot it when he’s open, especially this open. But, later, he gets it back from McKneely with 16 seconds left on the shot clock and room to step behind the line – he declines again and tries to force it into Saunders.
This is fully coaching. If coaches are discouraging this shot, shame on them. If Cofie is opting not to shoot on his own, coaches need to be in his ear TO shoot it. “I’ll sit you if you don’t take open shots,” is a common battle cry on the recruiting trail – and we should embrace that.
Final look here, from Cofie, below. He catches the ball with 21 seconds on the shot clock wide open for a look. His man is intentionally playing below the elbow. He dribbles around out there a bit with no intention of looking for his shot, eventually hands it to Saunders who resets and we get a midrange pull-up jumper from Rohde in isolation that he hits.
Good for Rohde, but I don’t care that it’s late in the game and we’re down. Cofie needs to be a threat to shoot this ball and let it go. One of the big advantages of him as a big is our ability to play him without giving up the ability to space the floor. We need to be demanding that he shoot open outside looks.
It’s interesting because one of the advantages that this team was supposed to have over last year’s is that we just have more shooters across the board. And, honestly, that’s been very true. Power may not have had the results we expected (but he’s still capable and needs to keep firing if we’re going to play him), but players like Ames and Rohde have been even better from out there than anticipated. Of all of the guys we ever play in the main rotation, only Buchanan and Robinson shouldn’t be shooting from out there. But what’s the point of having so many shooters if you aren’t going to shoot when you get the chance? You can’t wait for the seas to part, you’ve just got to step into your shot confidently and let fly… and if our coaching is deterring that to hunt for the great shot (which I’m pretty sure we are given our overall pace of play and collective hesitancy to look for a shot early), then we are missing the boat. Stop passing up good for great, because we’re normally passing up good for worse (or nothing). Just take good.
Shoot it! And instruct the team to do so as well. That alone is the easiest and quickest way that Coach Sanchez could improve the team’s offensive performance at the moment – and really doesn’t require any changes other than how we’re instructing the guys to play within what they’re already doing.
Play To Our Advantages
There’s a lot to point to, but I’d argue that the single most indefensible thing Coach Sanchez has done is to watch the impact Anthony Robinson has had on the game when he’s gotten the opportunity, especially in the Memphis game, and continue to only look at him as playable when the team experiences foul trouble. That’s a bad evaluation and there’s no apologizing for it. I understand that Robinson is still a raw player and may be subject to mistakes – but his overall ability to impact the game with his strength and his length has been obvious. He helps our ability to secure the interior on the glass, he stands up physically to stronger players in post defense, he helps free up our cutters with some of the best (probably the best) screens on the team, and he helps to support our lacking perimeter defense by taking up space and offering rim protection behind them. When added significantly into our frontcourt rotation, he helps turn it into a formidable group. He allows Buchanan to play with more energy in fewer minutes, and he allows Cofie and Saunders both to work from the PF and to add a more physical defender alongside of both of them.
Now, I have no video in this game to show of this, because Robinson didn’t play a single minute. A poor decision. Please revisit the Memphis piece if you want visuals on him. But, and I’ve floated this idea for a while, the ability of both Saunders and Cofie to handle the ball a little bit, defend with versatility, cut, pass, and shoot it from outside (Cofie needs to get back into that habit) should allow us to play either or both of them alongside Robinson and/or Buchanan. What would that do? It would make our interior defense incredibly robust between one of our Centers, and then both Cofie and Saunders crashing the glass. It would allow us to play toward mismatches on offense with either Saunders or Cofie both of who (most likely Saunders) would have huge size advantages over their man. It would improve our ability to make passing lanes difficult and it would greatly improve our help-side defense without likely giving up that much on the offense end (and helping if we were intentional about playing it). Keep in mind, we’ve already been trying this with Power – just Power doesn’t have the athleticism nor the ability to make plays in more ways like Saunders does. It certainly wouldn’t be a defensive minus from the times we’ve used him (which actually haven’t been that bad with him at SF).
So, given that this matchup involved Saunders matched up against 6’6″ players all game that would more likely resemble ACC wings than PFs and the Center matchup was closer to an ACC PF than a true Center, this is a pretty good opportunity to show what they can bring to those matchups. I’ll be using the remainder of this piece attempting to illustrate looks that show, what I believe, point to how we can use either at those positions (SF for Saunders and PF for Cofie, respectively) and how they could augment a Center for a true “big” lineup.
Let’s start with Cofie because he’s already playing PF some, just not as much as maybe would be ideal. This ability to take his man off the bounce and shoot this little turn around translates at either PF or C, I’d hold.
But this next one, below, gives a better look at his handle when he feels pressed to use it and how he would be a threat to drive and finish against most bigs. He’s really quick through the legs and toward the hoop here after his man attempts to pre-position himself for the screen.
If thinking about whether or not this skill of his translates as well against an ACC PF than it would a Center… consider that we haven’t really even had this skillset to effectively put the ball on the floor from the perimeter at the four in a long while. It’s probably been since De’Andre Hunter (you got it occasionally from Hauser). Both of these looks are things Cofie is capable of doing in conference play if he gets his number called (hopefully more frequently).
He’s also a very good passer from out there, though. Here he is threading a neat backdoor cut to Taine while handling the ball out on the perimeter.
Cofie is a better defender at the PF than the C where he can use his mobility and length to his advantage without having to worry as much about some of the strength he cedes to opposing Centers. Here’s a great look, below, at him easily standing up to the isolation dribble from the perimeter and forcing the deflection/travel:
And then this, below, is such an active defensive possession where he cheats trying to get the steal and runout probably with the safety net in the back of his mind that he can get back into the play, which he does with his mobility/reach, poking the dribble out from behind.
I probably didn’t have to sell you so much on Cofie at the PF, though, I imagine it’s the idea of Saunders at the SF that could raise some eyebrows. He’s got the spot up three; what he doesn’t have is the typical handle for the position we’d play out there. I’d ask, though, who really does? Yes, we run Rohde out there sometimes (with mixed results certainly from the dribble perspective), but who among Sharma, Murray, or Power are regularly using the bounce to create an advantage from parity against their man? Saunders can do the same thing they do where he presses an advantage created through the offense with more methodical drives where he uses his size and control to shield the ball. We saw one earlier where he drove and drew and then kicked back out to Sharma (who passed up the attempt).
Here’s an example where he’s guarded by the 6’4″ Wyatt Nausadis (#7). Yes, he’s playing the four, but that’s a guard matched up on him. So, what do we do? We clear out on the wing and let him take his man off of the dribble. It’s a more methodical attack where he uses his size to create angles and there’s a backdown element to it at the end as well. He’s lucky to make this shot, it’s one he kind of flips up, but the advantage he creates on his man to draw help and the foul is not luck – that’s just mismatch basketball.
Of note, Buchanan is on the floor – so you already have this working while we have one non-shooter out there. Do we really think having Cofie in the weakside corner, as an example, instead of Taine would change the way this play worked out? It wouldn’t.
You could also run stuff like this, below, with him at SF still. He’s being guarded by 6’6″ Lincoln Ball (#4) here and you could find matchups like this all of the time against ACC SFs (size-wise, there would be more skill). He gets a back screen from McKneely and just gets the ball against his man in the post/takes advantage of the mismatch.
This is an inbounds play, so it has a different design to it than we typically run in our base offense. But there are opportunities to post up across all of our positions. Cofie easily could have handled the ball on the perimeter the way Murray did here and could have thrown this entry pass. Buchanan is, again, on the floor, so that didn’t mess with spacing. Use Cofie on the perimeter to handle an entry pass and design something to free up Saunders on the block, and you have a regular post up mismatch with this 3-5 (or Robinson instead of Blake).
He’s also a good cutter from the perimeter too, though. Check out this play, below, in which Saunders could have easily been the SF on this one and we’d have known no differently. He starts out in the corner, rotates up to the wing, makes some perimeter passes, and then when Buchanan gets the ball on the block, dives toward the rim to take the pass for the finish and one.
Having a player like that cutting from the arc is such a huge advantage with his ability to pressure the rim and finish as he did compared to anyone else who would be playing the wing for us.
I just don’t see how playing Saunders out here some to allow for more bigs (accompanying Cofie at the PF) would represent worse offense than what we’ve regularly been seeing and I do think it would represent the ability to do some things that would create some advantages for us if we planned to run offense with all of this in mind.
As for defense – I’ve written in the past showcasing how Saunders has the ability to be a very solid defender on the perimeter. Despite that’s how this matchup against American played out – a much more perimeter-oriented matchup. He primarily guarded Greg Jones (#23), but it was mostly a slew of 6’6″ wing-types with the ability to drive or shoot it. Jones shot 2-5 from the floor and really didn’t test Saunders that much. When he did, it was mostly tepid, like here where he comfortably shuts down the driving angle and doesn’t offer a tempting target to attack:
But he also had moments where he would fully switch a screen on the perimeter, like here with Dai Dai Ames, and not be tempting to drive against; plus, it’s nice to have him crash down and support the glass like that on the run as opposed to having him fight on the interior against opposing bigs (where he’s often been out-sized this year).
It’s not to say he’d be perfect at perimeter defense – but it would be hard to convince me that he isn’t better than many of the options we regularly play out there such as Taine or Power – and I actually think his size/strength/physicality/and rebounding off of the crash would be an overall improvement – especially when paired with Cofie and a Center behind him. That’s a ton of size to bother our opposition without really giving up much mobility compared to our standard lineups.
Let’s look now at both Saunders and Cofie working together in this game and try to imagine if it would have to be any different if they had a Center on the floor with them instead. Saunders plays through the wing, Cofie gets the ball on the opposite wing, fakes the hand off to Ames and hits Rohde with a nice back door cut. Rohde finds iMac who makes a nice pass fake back to Saunders and sticks the shot. It’s a beautiful set with quality spacing, intentional movement, and minimal dribbling.
Yes, Cofie is offering that Center position, but he’s extending out past the free throw line to the three-point line, which Buchanan often does when he plays this role. Buchanan could be the passer in this situation, or you could play him on the opposite elbow and still have Cofie act in the same capacity as he does in the play. Saunders could easily be Ames here, running off of the handoff fake and/or taking the hand off and whipping the pass over to Blake at the opposite elbow or Cofie on the wing to cut off of them. He could also easily be Rohde on this play and make the same backdoor cut only he probably could have finished and/or gotten fouled at the rim (but certainly is talented enough to make the pass to iMac out there). There’s nothing about this set that would preclude us from playing big as long as Saunders and Cofie were 3-4. In fact, this was the early-season vision when we thought that TJ Power would be effective at the SF in the same capacity.
But what this would offer is a more threatening presence on the offensive glass. Rohde dribbles himself out of an initially effective drive here, but check out Cofie’s offensive rebound and put back against an American Center who more closely approximates a PF. Note also how Saunders has pressed down on the back end of that play and is in great position/physically owning space vs. the 6’6″ Greg Jones (#23) who is probably the best approximation that American had of an ACC SF athletically and size-wise.
Here’s the thing: It wouldn’t be perfect, but we also wouldn’t have to stick with it if a matchup was particularly bad. It’s not something we’ve really tried more than a couple of early season possessions (and never with Robinson). But if we’re really serious about being as competitive as possible this year, we have to find where our team can offer us an advantage. It’s not in the guard play. As a group they just aren’t good enough at creating nor defending. And in the frontcourt, both Buchanan and Cofie have struggled at times when paired up with either Saunders or (shudder) Power at the PF. Their strength deficit coupled with the PF length deficit (Saunders) or strength/athleticism deficit (Power) has often given us issues primarily on the defensive glass. But upshift that all a little bit – surround Buchanan with Cofie AND Saunders and now you’re just pounding the glass and contesting the rim on each end. Get Robinson in there and it’s even more dramatic.
That’s where your advantage is.
Saunders and Cofie are both versatile enough pieces with their mobility, ball skills, and athleticism, that you can get them both out there with one of your Centers and really make it a bad time for your opposition. You just have to have the vision for it and the willingness to actually change the way you’re trying to play a little to do so.
But, if I’m Coach Sanchez, I’d try this in a heartbeat. Your frontcourt, not your backcourt, is where you have the best opportunity to create an advantage over your opposition. Let’s play them in that way!
In Conclusion
I highly doubt that we’ll discover the big lineup this season. When Coach Sanchez talks about how iMac needs to realize he can put the ball on the ground more and make plays, it’s very clear that he’s still viewing the roster through the lens of the guards being the players he needs to lean on to create more offense. Frankly, yes, iMac could be a little more aggressive driving a closeout from time to time – you’d like to see him become as effective as at least Taine in that regard – but that is not the strength of his game. If we’re thinking that the way we’re going to improve and score more points is with iMac becoming even more involved as an initiator/distributor – I’d point you toward many of his reckless turnovers the past few games because he is trying to do more.
I’m very confident that McKneely initiating with the ball in his hands off of the bounce is not our key to turning this offense around. Now, I do want him (and everyone else) to shoot the ball when they get their opportunities, as highlighted earlier. But, no. Let’s run clean offense where we pass the ball well and take advantage of the spacing that comes with our shooting. Let’s play through our size advantage if we’re courageous enough to use it, and cut off of those players. Let’s target mismatches. Let’s get imaginative about how we see this team and what we think is the best way to use it.
So, yeah, I don’t think we’re going to get there. There are just too many mental hurdles for us to overcome right now. Thinking the solution is heavy-iMac facilitation, the clear instruction for the team to shoot great, not good, shots, the clear preference for Cofie not to shoot as often from deep, four guard lineups used very recently, Robinson still viewed as only in the rotation when we have foul trouble…. It’s a lot of preferences for us to clear/overcome in order to get to this place.
At the very least, changing our shot selection to be more aggressive and at least working Robinson into the regular rotation regardless of foul trouble should be pretty achievable ways to improve. And with regard to loftier goals of playing bigger and up-shifting Saunders and Cofie, I’d still make the case:
Doing the same things we’ve been doing and hoping for incremental improvement is just going to yield more of the same… because we’re just not close enough with what we’ve been doing for incremental improvement to get us where we need to be.
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