Another Blue/White internal scrimmage in the books. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to make it out this year, but I have combed the highlights, digested the first-person accounts, checked the PBP, and have a few quick thoughts. It’s such a small sample-size that we are prone to over-analyzing because of the dearth of tangible assessment over the offseason, so what I’d like to focus on are things that I think are over-reactions, and some things that aren’t.
Over-Reactions:
Shooting Woes
CTB ran the team for a full 40-minute scrimmage closed-doors prior to this contest AND had his four best shooters participate in a three-point shooting contest directly prior to the game. That’s an intentional choice that he made for some reason. I’m sure it’s partly to help with conditioning and playing in front of a crowd when you’re tired and your legs aren’t at their springiest, but I do think it was also partly to mute expectations out of the gate. His post-scrimmage comments echoed as much, where he emphasized that this team will improve as the season goes on. Now, shooting in this game is a small sample-size, anyway. Last year we “famously” shot the lights out from deep in this game (which Traudt was also playing in) and then dealt with streaky shooting on a month-over-month basis throughout the year. I do buy that outside shooting might not be this team’s biggest strength, but I don’t buy that they’re a collective 2-17 combined from Beekman, McKneely, Rohde, Dunn, and Groves bad. McKneely, Beekman, and Groves, especially have shown that they can be consistent shooters at this level, and Dunn and Rohde are both confident shooters (confident enough that Dunn is taking jab step threes now). It’s easy to see 4-25 from outside, hear reports about lots of open looks missed, and revert to immediately thinking of recent woes – but the stats are extreme enough from reliable players that I think it’s safe to give a lot of credence to both the fatigue factor and variance. Now, it’s certainly possible that we’ll go cold in this area or not be as reliable as last year, and we’ll have to see how that balances with the offenses we’re running and the level of defense that we play (which I am high on), but I would dismiss this outing as an indicator either way.
Rohde’s Finishing
This is a similar point to that above, but there has been enough made of Andrew Rohde’s 2-11 day from the floor that it’s worth mentioning directly. There was likely an added microscope on Andrew Rohde’s play given his reputation as a player who can create his own offense and the lofty expectations that his presence will provide an offensive pop to this roster. This outing shouldn’t dissuade that confidence at all, in my opinion. If anything, the fact that he was aggressive enough to take the most shots on the team both shows that he was able to get to them and that he likely has that role in practice and is making them enough to have the confidence to shoot them. If the legs are gone, especially for a player who is looking to create so often, it will likely show up with his finishing. Point being, the only takeaway I believe this game solidified is that Rohde WILL take on the role of a creating/scoring option when he’s in the game. How efficient that looks or whatever lens you viewed his effectiveness in that role coming into this game should probably remain unchanged. I do still like this idea (and it’s the one change I’d make to my preseason article on what I’d like to see happen for the coming year) of Rohde being our 6th man but likely still playing those same starter’s minutes. Beekman is, by far and away, going to be our best initiator of offense and the most effective player at creating his own shot, as well. Rohde stands to be a long pop of offense who can get into the lane, get his own shot, and create for others as well, but he’s not the sniper that McKneely is nor the defender/athletic presence that Bond is. If you start those other two and get a feel of the game, Rohde has the skill/length enough to come in for either. This way, if McKneely is cold out of the gate, or if we need more options for dribble penetration, or if he’s struggling to defend his man, OR if Bond is struggling to provide needed offense or if his defense isn’t as needed on his cover, Rohde could be that spark that spells either and provides an offensive jolt. You could bring him in between 4-6 minutes into the game, give Beekman a little rest on the offensive end, and augment the appropriate matchup 2-3. Basically, Rohde gives you a lot of options if you’re bringing him into an established game flow, much like Manu Ginóbili did for the Spurs, albeit at the NBA level. It’s a very similar concept. Furthermore, around that time our opposition might be bringing in their first guard/wing sub off of the bench, so you could also time Rohde’s arrival such that their bench player (or a fatigued starter, depending) has to cover him, allowing him to ostensibly go to work on a weaker defender. Lots of options there that are worth seriously considering.
Sides
We primarily ran Sides on Saturday and this team (other than some lineups where we might get Minor and Buchanan together) appears much better suited for some of our other offenses, putting Flow at the top of that list. But, CTB is very tight about what he’s willing to show outside of game tape. The secret scrimmages are on lock, practice footage is at a premium and in very small snippets, even this event has been altered to add non-game content and also to make the play itself more ragged. Given that Sides is the most iconic/known offense that we run, it’s not tipping anything to show it in this event (other than that we will still use it and are still practicing it). We know/have seen them practicing Flow in some of the small snippets that they have released and, contrary to what’s been written, they did use some of it in this game. We shouldn’t take this event as any indication of which offenses they’ll use or how often they’ll use them.
Freshmen Big Men
By all accounts, both Blake Buchanan and Anthony Robinson popped on the floor in ways that neither Jordan Minor nor Jacob Groves did. Their ability to eat space (especially Buchanan’s defensive rotations), Robinson’s thunderous dunks, and their collective size, were notable by contrast. This has lead for some calls for Buchanan to start and for Robinson not to redshirt. And, while I do share the sentiment that Buchanan could be ready to contribute more quickly this year than most Bennett bigs, and that he probably should, we’re sleeping a little on the value of Minor’s physicality and clean up buckets/play. Minor was the 4th leading scorer in the scrimmage, half of which game from offensive boards and putbacks. He was very good on the glass despite being matched up with the size/length of the young bigs or the much more athletic Dunn. Given CTB’s historical preference of playing that kind of physical, veteran, player in that slot, I do think it’s going to be a high bar for Blake Buchanan to unseat him as the starter by season’s end (not to mention that there is a transfer portal cost if you minimize Minor’s role too much). Also, Groves’s shooting is real and, along with his mobility, appears considerably better than what BVP offered. CTB will certainly lean into shooting/lineups that stretch our opposition as well with Groves on the floor. Now, I do think it’s reasonable (and likely) that Buchanan carves out a growing role for himself over the span of the season. We’ll need his length/size and his grasp on the defense for how young he is in it was strong, but I will be surprised if he ends up as the starter, barring injury, this year. I think there’s almost zero chance, again barring injury, that Robinson doesn’t redshirt. His potential is enormous and I love the idea of he and Blake playing together as early as next season, but he is still very raw and sloppy at times and he did come here expecting to redshirt as opposed to being told it was a possibility and thinking he’d play his way onto the floor. CTB will take that bird in the hand and get him into Mike Curtis world almost assuredly, which I think will be beneficial for both him and the team long-term as I view his flight risk as minimal.
Not An Over-Reaction
Leon Bond
In that same preseason preview article, I wrote, “I have a theory that the more time Leon Bond earns at the 3, the better this team will be, because it’ll mean he’s doing enough offensively (or we have enough offensively around him) and his ability to defend and to help our bigs secure the glass should be invaluable.” I believe Bond is more ready to contribute offensively than I thought at the time I wrote that, and I’ve shifted from hoping he gets playing time and being worried about it not happening, to feeling fairly confident that he’ll be a rotation staple, if not outright starter. He’s always had a good/confident midrange game. The question has always been, given that he is still undersized despite his length to be primarily a back to the basket player, can he extend his game to the wing? On Saturday, he took and made his lone three-point shot without hesitation, he beat his man off of the dribble and finished athletic reverse layups around strong contests, he was silky in the mid-range, and even made an incredibly athletic catch diving to the rim and finished a sweet little floater. Easily our most efficient offensive player on the day (6-8 from the floor), his help defense was oppressive and he was lock down man-to-man against everyone not named Reece Beekman or Ryan Dunn. It’s not even really the shooting efficiency from Bond that moves the needle for me, although that’s great, it’s the confidence with which he was playing accompanied by the varied ways in which he was attacking/scoring. Outside, midrange, inside, he was aggressive taking and converting his opportunities (and creating). While there will be times where Andrew Rohde’s offense will just be more valuable, I expect Bond to be the kind of player who can find his looks/opportunities even when the team is going through dry spells and who does so many other things (off/def rebounding, on/off-ball defense, creating good spacing if he’s at the 4) that he’s going to earn significant run and be very impactful for us. I also think he raises both our floor and ceiling as a team, because defense travels and he offers a lot of solutions if other things aren’t working. I’m no longer just hoping Leon Bond III will make a regular impact this year, I’m expecting him to.
Dante Harris Minutes
I joked a little online about this interview with Jason Williford on the Jerry Ratcliffe Show, because of how reverent the reaction from the fans was, but mostly because, as I’ve written about many times, Kihei was a much better offensive player than he was a defensive one later in his career. Furthermore, his defense early on was augmented by the ability to be over-aggressive on the ball with great back end help, and then, as he lost that support, became very dependent on the type of opponent he was facing, their size and skillset. Dante Harris does not appear to have those same limitations in any significant way. He’s taller by a few inches, quicker, faster, stronger, and can jump higher. He had more steels than Beekman did in the scrimmage and, by all accounts, was even making the All-ACC talent’s life miserable bringing the ball up the floor. We can remember a distinct story about Clark doing this against Ty Jerome, who was very skilled but one of the slower-footed guards in the ACC. There are no such stories about Kihei being able to bother Reece in any similar way, let alone senior year height-of-his-powers Reece. No, Dante Harris is something different and the early commentary about “Dante’s Inferno” appear apt.
Offensively, he’s not nearly as polished or savvy as Kihei yet, but his explosion is on another level. This clip, below, really stood out to me, even though it’s more of a Ryan Dunn block highlight (more on that later and also points to his offensive limitations). There are some other angles out there that show just how quick this was, this was the best I could find for this format, but Minor doesn’t really catch Reece with this ball screen. That’s all just Dante Harris blowing by and turning the corner on the reigning ACC Defensive Player of The Year.
He is going to have to better polish what he does when he gets in there; look to dish more, be willing to pull it out if it’s not there, but that first step is just electric. The outside shooting from him was 0-3, doing nothing to change the narrative about his lack of shooting prowess through his first two seasons, and I could see his decision-making being a little too chaotic for CTB to handle, at times, but he did work in transition and ran the offense with confidence. If fouls were being scored/implemented as a disqualifier, he would have had Reece in foul trouble early, and that’s notable.
Harris’s ability to hound the ball and force the issue off of the dribble are things that CTB covets, so I have no doubt that he will have a significant role on this team. In fact, there’s a real chance he could be the 5th starter instead of either Rohde or Bond (which I would really dislike and don’t think is the most likely scenario, but do think it’s possible). Either way, any thoughts/hopes of him primarily just being the backup PG to Beekman (which I have a few) do not appear to be realistic.
Ryan Dunn Has Arrived
Dunn was everywhere on Saturday, seemingly contesting or outright blocking almost everything around the rim. But his defensive prowess was felt last year, and it was his offensive confidence/skills that needed improvement. What was wild (and probably not sustainable but notable) from Saturday is that he led the team in assists with 5, two more than Beekman’s 3. He had good court vision, a comfortable handle, a willingness to take his man off the bounce, and a willingness to shoot the ball (both off of the move and stationary). His multiple jab step then launch three-pointer was a shot of a confident player who has the green light. I don’t think we’re at the point yet where he’ll be the volume scorer for us that we had in Hunter (his shot isn’t like THAT yet), but I do think he’ll be heavily involved in creating offense in a variety of ways, both himself, outside-in, and for others. And his defense has the potential to be about as versatile and imposing as we’ve seen in the CTB era (can block/bother shots better than Hunter and is more mobile than Diakite). For as much of a mainstay in the lineup as Beekman will be at the guard, I expect Dunn to be every bit as much of that (at least close) in the frontcourt/sometimes wing with a similar level of trust.
Gertrude’s Knee Health
If there were any outstanding questions, Elijah Gertrude was moving very well with almost no signs of injury, and he looked like he belonged. Long three at the buzzer not withstanding, Gertrude moved fluidly, passed out of the double team, found some quality passes, played some good defense, finished around the rim, etc., etc. It’s hard to speculate whether or not he’ll be able to carve out a role for himself on this roster (I’m still hopeful), and it’s possible he’ll see his athleticism ramp even more as the season progresses, but it’s clear that he’s back in a fullish capacity and will not need to delay his ramp up. The fact that he looked every much like he belonged on that floor was exciting in and of itself.
In Conclusion
Relatively quick-hitters from me, but there’s not much you can say confidently from these kinds of events. This is the lens through which I’m most confident digesting our newest findings.
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