Welcome back to Part 1 of 2024’s Tracking a Transfer! If you haven’t seen these in the previous two off seasons, this is where I do deep dives into the previous year’s film of all of our incoming transfers (it will be four this year that I do as I’m making a hard and fast rule about scholarship players). I strive to review full-game footage at the college level; which tells you a lot more about a player (especially on the defensive side) than his highlight packages do or his high school tape. The goal being, to have a very good sense of the different elements to the player’s game when this is over, and to think about how he would fit with our team/system (although there will be at least some speculation this year if we do change some things about our system). The process for these is that I review as much as I can find about the player at the college level, review stats and metrics, and then find four full games that I break down in these (sometimes that’s all that’s out there for a team, sometimes there’s a lot more to choose from, sometimes there are even fewer and I end up having to send away for DVDs of St. Thomas games!). I’ll normally try to pick the best competition the player plays against if they’re from a smaller school and, if from a bigger school, a mix of early/late season/high stakes games so see if anything has changed in their game or how they were utilized, etc.
This first review will be for Florida State’s PG, Jalen Warley, the former composite 44th ranked high school recruit in the country in 2021, who has one year of eligibility remaining. Just look at the picture above, for starters, to appreciate the length he has on the players he was often defending (and who were defending him). The 6’7″ Warley started every game (except for Senior Night) for FSU as their true PG, only sliding off of the ball and playing secondary initiator during the 280-some possessions backup PG Primo Spears shared the floor with him. He also started 21 of 32 games as a Sophomore, and 5 games as a Freshman; so he’s no stranger to running an offense at the major conference level. He’s a fantastic athlete on that long frame, but much more so laterally than vertically. What I mean by that is that he’s fast, he’s quick, he’s fluid in his movement, and he uses his length to cover a lot ground on the floor very quickly, to bother passing lanes, to get his hands on the ball, to extend shots past and away from shot blockers… but he’s not going to soar over a Center for a rebound or give you many Ryan Dunnesque blocks from the weak side. Make no mistake about it, despite the dissimilarity in programs and despite his lengthy stature, this is a CTB-style Point Guard. He’s doing to defend, he’s going to, for the most part, play very smart, sound, basketball, he’s going to get his teammates involved in the game, and he’s going to display leadership; calling out and visibly signaling defensive rotations and offensive decisions to make. He was the steadfast leadership and calming presence on the floor for FSU this past season. What he’s not going to do is shoot the ball from outside. Warley took only SEVEN(!) three-point shots last year, making just one, a year removed from shooting 32% on just 31 attempts. This (along with his one year of eligibility) might explain some of the lukewarm reception that I’ve seen from fans who are still stinging from an abysmal offensive season.
Warley’s stats don’t jump off of the page. His 7.5 points per game were just sixth on his team, his 2.6 rebounds per game were over a full rebound fewer than Reece Beekman provided last season (and he’s 4 inches taller), and his 2.8 assists per game were almost half of Reece’s. But his advanced metrics painted a different picture, with his Bayesian Performance Rating at evanmiya.com leading his entire team by a considerable margin, the predictive rating listing him as the 98th best transfer in the portal (higher than any of our incoming transfers this season), and he was in the top three most efficient two-man lineup pairings on the roster. Watching the games, this was a player who could take over a game, or a player who could fade into the background and hardly be noticed; but a lot of that came from his unselfishness and the system in which he was playing and what FSU was asking him to do. This is a player who I think will benefit greatly from CTB’s system (especially defensively) in some ways, and who I also think we won’t be able to tap into his fullest potential if we don’t change the way we play.
So, let’s take a more detailed look into the player. The four games we’ll review are an early season drubbing @Florida, an overtime win against Colorado in the Sunshine Slam Championship (Warley was named to the All-Sunshine Slam Team despite scoring just 3 points in the opener against UNLV), against Virginia Tech in their opening game of the ACC Tournament, and against UNC – their resounding defeat in the ACC Tournament. It’s a spread of two early-season games and two late season games; three of which are against teams that made the NCAA Tournament, one against a conference opponent who made the NIT, in postseason action. So, keep your eyes on #1 for the Seminoles with these Cuts! But, before we start…
First A Word About Florida State
It’s interesting scouting a player on a team with which we, as Virginia fans, are much more familiar; looking at him as an asset as opposed to as the competition. In fact, if we recall, he’s the reason Reece wasn’t bringing the ball up the floor on this play:
And here he is taking Rohde off of the dribble, missing his shot in the lane, getting his own rebound, and kicking it out to a teammate to finish the play:
So, we already have some initial opinions, right or wrong.
FSU, under coach Leonard Hamilton, has virtually always been a LONG roster and this season was no different with their shortest starter at 6’5″ and no one else under 6’7″. They run a high-pressure system; typically pressuring full court for the majority of the game, using their length and athleticism to sow chaos, and playing a deeper bench/rotation than most to allow for the sustained intensity. This year, they regularly played between 9 and 11 guys in close contests; but Warley averaged just over 24 minutes per game despite the regular high allocation of bench minutes. That being said, FSU was not as good nor as imposing as they’ve recently been this past season and the quality of their results swung pretty dramatically. They finished 9th in the ACC, 10-10 in the conference. They had bad losses to the likes of Lipscomb and Louisville along with some blowout losses against Florida, UNC, and South Florida; but they also had wins over UNLV, Colorado, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. For the most part, it was a team that looked less talented but, probably more, less disciplined than recent iterations. They would often go off the rails and everything would fall apart; but that also showed some real glimpses or promise. To his credit, Warley was steady, and while he didn’t always have the offensive solution, FSU seemed to have a lot of confusion around how they wanted to play offense outside of getting Jamir Watkins touches. Defensively, FSU was sometimes a sieve, but most of the issues came as a result of mismatches the opponent could exploit or a breakdown in their assignments. Warley was very rarely the cause of these and even more rarely conceded points to his man when covering on the perimeter.
Defensively, the Seminoles are (and were this season) defined by their inclination to switch almost everything; every ball screen, every dribble hand off, often even players just crossing each other away from the ball. The concept being that they have the length and athleticism for any player to guard anyone (supported by aggressive help side defense on the interior). The benefit of this, to us as viewers, is that we got to see Jalen Warley in a bunch of different defensive positions and situations, which I’ll dive into momentarily; but I would argue that this was not the most effective strategy for Warley nor FSU on the whole, as their opposition was well-aware of this system and targeted it to their advantage throughout the season. Warley, a very talented on-ball defender, would often get shuffled away from the ball or under the hoop while FSU’s slew of big men would often get isolated on the perimeter. In some previous seasons when FSU had true inter-positional interchangeability, this system allowed them to create constant pressure while negating a lot of what offenses were trying to do through their screen games; but this team struggled to execute that vision; often turning in some very poor defensive performances; including giving up 89 @Florida, 88 at home vs. South Florida, 80 at home against us (and we know our offensive struggles this past season), and a whopping 101 points in a loss at Louisville. If I was a FSU fan, my fingers may have bled with the frenzy in which I would have been typing about how often Hamilton’s system was putting his individually talented players in unfavorable defensive positions, how unnecessary it was, and how often things just fell off of the rails as a result. It was a more extreme version of the battle cry we’ve been having on our team recently where sometimes you need to be able to adjust and get away from your system if it’s not well-suited for the roster. Needless to say that Warley, while having some very good moments and making his impact felt quite often, was not as effectively deployed as he could be. We could never see how capable he was at just taking the opposition’s best guard out of their game because he rarely stayed on one player throughout an entire possession, even. It was visible on film that teams were often intentional about orchestrating motion to get him off of the ball and under the hoop as best as they could. I think he will benefit greatly from a transition to the Pack Line, both because he WILL be able to blanket the opposition’s best guard, and because he is also incredibly experienced in providing help defense in more extreme ways than he’ll be asked to for us, as we’ll soon see.
Offensively, FSU primarily ran a series of ball screen offenses much like variations of our Flow, that regularly stationed two players in each corner with three guys working ball screens and post ups in the center of the court. Warley was at his most effective as the helm of the offense, either looking for opportunities to attack the hoop or setting up opportunities for others. When he wasn’t playing primarily on the ball, though, FSU would put him in one of the corners away from the action. Depending on the opponent, their roster, and their scouting report, this had varying levels of success. As mentioned previously, he wasn’t looking for his shot from deep, so teams willing to aggressively play off of him in these situations did have some success gumming up the offense. As I type that, I hear reactions in my head recoiling as everyone thinks about Ryan Dunn last offseason and the impact of teams sagging off of him when he was outside. I would caution against that extreme of a comparison; as Warley has a much better handle than Dunn and is a more aggressive offensive player. He would attack these situations differently and it wasn’t nearly as limiting for the FSU offense. Still, it was a real obstacle for them to overcome, at times, especially when opponents were intentional about how they defended him, and I would hope that we minimize the amount of time that he’s playing off of the ball this season. Instead, I’d like to see us primarily use him to drive the offense. That being said, FSU had a number of players who were very capable of attacking off of the bounce, and often tried to attack through Jamir Watkins, Darin Green Jr. or others who were adept at creating their own shots and were more geared toward scoring. In fact, FSU averaged about 3 fewer assists per game than we did last season despite scoring about 13 more points per game primarily because guys called their own number so often; so there definitely seems to be room for Warley to initiate more here; and I’d also expect his assist numbers to increase.
There’s one more element we need to discuss as a whole when talking about FSU, but it’s the defining characteristic that makes them SO different from how we play, and that’s their full court presence, both defensively and offensively. As I mentioned, FSU pressed most of the games, and Warley was a huge part of that; keeping the ball away from primary ball handlers and creating turnovers. FSU also loved to run and push the ball in transition, and Warley’s quality decision making/passing, flat-out speed in the open court, and ability to finish at the rim on the run were significantly positive parts of his game. While he was a very controlled and smart player, he could create chaos along with his teammates for the full 94 feet. In fact, when Warley was playing at his absolute best for FSU and really making his presence felt, it was almost always accentuated or bolstered by his presence in the full court, not just the half court. As we know, this is the opposite of how UVa plays; often not pressing until down big and, even so, not doing so until very late, and rarely pushing the tempo unless it’s the most obvious opportunity. In fact, between Beekman, Dunn, Harris, Gertrude, Bond, and Minor, this had the ability to be a strength of ours last year and we never explored it. So, this will be a big question regarding what CTB means by “change” for this coming season. Does change look like anything tangible with regard to our approach and style? If so, Jalen Warley will likely be a big part of that but, if not, we won’t be using him to his maximum potential even if we do improve his impact in other areas.
Alright, I think that’s plenty of setting the stage. Let’s go ahead and dive in!
Offense
To keep a consistent format, I’ll start with his offense even though it’s his defense that I’m most excited to cover. Warley was a savvy floor general whose strength is his game sense/passing. I mentioned that he only had 2.8 assists per game, but he had almost 23% of his team’s total assists, despite playing just under 25 mpg due to their rotational strategy. He had a good number of hockey assists where he’d create the advantage to get the play going, regularly looked to get his teammates open and involved early, and was often visible calling out/pointing to open men for his teammates to pass the ball to; directing traffic on the floor. Additionally, he was FSU’s inbound passer in almost every set play, illustrating Hamilton’s trust in his decision making and execution.
Warley wasn’t afraid to attack the rim off of the bounce and was often called upon to do so at the end of the shot clock; but it was rarely his initial priority and he was often more passive about this than you’d expect given his athleticism and ability to slash. He was at his most threatening when he got going downhill, in transition yes, but also just if he could use or reject a ball screen and get a little momentum while attacking. He was a good finisher when he got to the rim, as a whole, and often used his length to stretch the ball away from shot blockers and/or draw fouls; but had inconsistent touch at times in that more mid-range area when defenders kept him from getting too deep. He could take advantage of his size on smaller players on the drive (passing or shooting over them), but rarely posted them up by design and he wasn’t an aggressive offensive rebounder (or in general) as you might suppose. Namely, he wasn’t an overly physical offensive presence and, though he did present mismatches, he could still normally be defended with a guard.
Because he didn’t look for his outside shot, and this became increasingly more prevalent by the end of the season after he’d been scouted, his primary defender would often give him a significant cushion both on and off the ball. This often discouraged him from driving unless he was forced to or unless he could play through a ball screen, which was often FSU’s counter but overall this did result in the play moving away from Warley to someone else more often that it likely would have otherwise. When he was off the ball, it didn’t often bog down the offense as FSU had individual scoring talent and collective length. He would also often take advantage of the space by driving or cutting to the ball; but there were certainly moments where the lack of spacing due to his unwillingness to shoot a three derailed a possession or made things harder.
Let’s go ahead and take a look at the most relevant aspects:
Driving to Score
This is an area where I think Warley is at his most inconsistent. He can be very good at it; and often presents a matchup nightmare when matched up on the other team’s PGs. He’s both quick and fast and his strides are hard to stay in front of. He has good body control, identifies angles, and spins off of defenders well to create space… but he isn’t often aggressive about calling his own number and his touch can be a weakness at times. So, while he’s very good at finishing AT the rim, his lack of a jump shot and inconsistency in the midrange can make him fairly one-dimensional as a scorer. Here’s a look early in the season against Colorado; a game in which he scored his second highest point total of the season; with 19 on 7-11 shooting from there floor. Here he pushes the ball up the floor, takes a ball screen, gets down the lane and finishes with a nice little right-handed runner over the 6’11” 265 lb. Eddie Lampkin Jr. (#44).
I’m not characterizing that one as a transition bucket because everyone was back, but it is a very early shot in the possession, taking advantage of the defense still fully setting up, which is something he’d need to be given the freedom to do here. That being said, notice how much ground he covers when he turns the corner on the screen and how he’s able to use his length to take the runner without much worry about Lampkin blocking it. He’s able to kind of lean into him while keeping the ball high and back.
Here he is in the same game, below, where he dribbles up and gets into the offense, hangs out away from the play in the lower corner, gradually rotates back up toward the ball, before eventually taking the pass, using a ball screen, and hitting a nice little floater in the lane.
Here’s another, below, from the same game, this time playing off of the ball on the wing after inbounding the ball. When he takes the return pass from the point with his man playing in the passing lane, watch how quickly he explodes on the drive and how he’s able to finish pretty comfortably through the contest at the rim.
At the end of the Colorado game, down one with just over a minute left, FSU called Warley’s number. Although he couldn’t finish with the left hand, you can see, below, that slashing, explosive drive through the lane that, once he gets a step, is hard to cut off. He drew a foul and got to the line off of this.
Below is a good example of him more as the primary initiator @Florida. In this one he only had 7 points on 3-5 shooting and the Seminoles were dominated from the jump (but he did have 5 steals and 4 assists). Initially we see him run a pick and roll with 6’10” Cam Corhen (#3), getting the ball to him cutting into a clogged lane. Corhen resets the offense which cycles the ball back through to Warley again. This time there’s a screen action with Corhen but there’s awkward timing with Darin Green Jr. (#22) flaring out to the nearside wing. It looks like it’s designed to be a Spain action of sorts with Green back-screening for Corhen and then flaring, but he doesn’t set an actual screen, just runs through, which just ends up causing congestion and Warley still has nowhere to go with the ball. He passes it back out, fakes a ball screen himself, takes the pass back on the wing, and simply jab steps to his left and slashes through the lane for the long, outstretched, easy right-handed layup.
I like that example because you can see that he can be effective when he just makes his mind up to call his number. It was quick and it came without any advantage, just taking a simple pass on the wing after the offense stalled out. You can also see how his man wasn’t getting to that ball when he extended it for the layup because of his reach. Once he’s by his man, he’s very good at taking an advantageous angle and playing keep-away with the ball on his finish. But, also, you can see how FSU’s offense wasn’t crisp and Warley stayed pretty disciplined early on, looking to operate within the design until that didn’t work and he had to just make something happen. That’s the kind of thing that translates very well to us when our sets don’t yield something and we need someone to bail us out by making a play.
This next one, below, is just a straight up isolation play for Warley at the end of the first half against Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. He’s got 6’4″ Jaydon Young (#13) on him but, with the play designed FOR him and limited time, he has the purpose and confidence to take it to the rack and finish with an outstretched right hand. There’s really not a ton to this move, it’s just a slight lean to the right, a dribble between the legs, and an explosion to the left; but he’s able to create a small advantage with the misdirection and his explosion/speed/length does the rest.
Again, it’s that he’s able to build momentum while keeping the ball outstretched away from his defender. It’s not the tightest handle, but he makes it look easy enough that you wonder why FSU didn’t design more for him in isolation.
In the same game, here’s a different look, below, off of a pin-down screen like we run in Sides. This time he doesn’t get a great ball screen after catching the pass on the wing, but it’s a good look at how his size is a problem for opposing defenders at the guard/wing position even if he’s not posting them up or backing them down. That’s 6’4″ MJ Collins defending him (#2) and he does well to cut off Warley’s driving angle into the paint, but Warley simply spins off of him back toward the rim and finishes. He covers a lot of ground in so doing and it’s very hard for a player like Collins to both match his quickness to beat him to the spot on the drive while also recovering back from a long pivot like this:
This is also where it’s worth making this point, though – he wasn’t always this aggressive. Warley was a pass-first PG who defaulted toward getting his teammates touches; it took situational things – an opening in transition, him getting hot, the end of a shot clock, a designed play or possession to go through him – to get him to ratchet up that aggression for his own offense.
Here’s a different look, below, from the Colorado game that exemplified far too many possessions for Warley and is why it would feel like he’d disappear from some games. He initiates the offense and gets a ball screen, but his man sags pretty far back, playing well under, daring the shot. Rather than attempting to punish by pushing the action into the lane or being willing/able to just take the shot, instead he lets this deter him, passes the ball to the bottom wing, and clears out to the far corner where he sits while his defender keeps a foot on the opposite paint. FSU ends up getting a pretty bad shot (a contested three from Baba Miller #11 off of a hand off) that they could probably get whenever they wanted.
To be clear, this is not even a game where Warley was struggling offensively or not in the flow of the game; he had 19 points in this one and was effective scoring the ball efficiently. So, it’s not ideal to see his man just play so far under the screen be effective at causing him to just defer on the possession. Something to continue to mull as we look at his ability to create for others and spacing a little later.
Here’s one more look from the same game just to illustrate the trend (I could have found a lot of these but we don’t need to look at more than two clips of him being passive when his man sags off of him – and that’s coming from me!). But here his man plays under two different potential ball screens and Warley remains passive, passing the ball non-threateningly to the point before heading to the corner.
It’s not that it’s always bad for him to get the team into an offensive set/flow. A play like the above isn’t by definition bad; but it also depends on the quality of the offense you’re getting when he is deferring. For a team like FSU’s last season where too many guys were willing to take any open shot, or ours last year where almost no one was willing to take any shots (two very different scenarios but the same role he needs to play), you’d rather him be more assertive to help find a better look.
In addition to sometimes playing passively, another inconsistency for Warley was often his touch in the lane. He was a great finisher in close to the rim, off of the glass, on drives, and in transition as we’ll see shortly, but sometimes it was really ugly in that 5-10 foot range. Here’s a look, below, against Colorado that happened very shortly after the first clip I posted in this section. So, he’d already made a push shot from decently far up the lane. But on this one, he has a little bit more of a head of steam pushing the ball up the floor, some pressure comes in on his right as he’s about to shoot and he launches it clear over the backboard!
Here’s another floater attempt against VT, below, off of an inbound play with a pin down screen action for him. It barely grazes the rim short:
And here, against UNC, we see him actually methodically back down the much smaller defender, Elliot Cadeau (#2), which he would rarely do. He gives a nice up fake and steps through to get a pretty good look close to the bucket… but the shot is just like a laser that clangs well above the square on the backboard and has no prayer.
He’d go from looking pretty silky at times (just to reiterate, he can hit this kind of shot – it is a part of his bag)…
to just looking like he’d lost all touch entirely like in the other clips above; which could explain some of the hesitancy to initiate in addition to the unselfishness.
Creating For Others
In the halfcourt, Warley is at his most effective when he’s using his dribble to create for others. It’s basically all of the advantages he can bring above, but converting the opportunity through a better shooter most of the time. It’s also where he can capitalize on his quality court vision/awareness and make smart plays with accurate passes.
Here’s a look against Colorado that his teammate didn’t convert so it won’t show up on a stat sheet; but it’s a very good play by Warley. First, he directs traffic to set up an initial ball screen, which he doesn’t use aggressively, that lulls the defense for the second ball screen which he explodes off of. Notice how much ground he covers and how quickly once he starts his drive such that neither his initial man, nor the recovering post player can get into a relevant angle. It goes VERY quickly from looking like the post defender is in a decent defending position to suddenly being well behind the play. Warley then picks out his teammate and executes a crisp and accurate bounce pass through the defense for what should have been a finish at the rim.
My favorite thing about that clip is that you can see both the speed at which he’s playing compared to the defense, but that he’s also in control, reading the defense as he’s doing it, and able to deliver a quality pass on the move.
Here, below, is a great look from OT in the same game on a play that basically iced the game. FSU again gave Warley the ball in isolation, with a play designed to action De’Ante Green (#5) to cut up through the lane from the strong side block up to the weak side elbow, and for Darin Green Jr. (#22) to cut from the baseline to the strong side corner; occupying both of their men as Warley drives in isolation. Darin Green’s action starts a little too late, though, and so his man has to stay home because Warley fully blows by his man who was pressuring him, getting his full body past him on the drive. Seeing the defensive rotation, he kicks the ball out to Green in the corner as he’s arriving for the three.
Again, his explosion is such that he gets entirely by his man, but he isn’t out of control or running over the help defender; he just identifies the open man and makes the timely pass.
Given his ability to read a defense and play under control, he also does well as a passer out of the pick and roll. Here’s a look against Florida (oof on the score) where he runs off of a stagger screen where one of his teammates rolls to the basket and the other pops out to the three-point line on the wing. He uses his dribble to press the advantage and create space, then reads the opening and finds his man for the open three.
In the same game, this is another look that his teammate couldn’t convert but was a really nice play by Warley. Cam Corhen (#3) sets a ball screen for Warley going to his left that draws the 6’10” Tyrese Samuel on Florida (#4) to stop the dribble while the ball defender works to get back into the play. This leaves both players in a quasi trap on Warley while Corhen rolls to the hoop. Warley displays great feel here, representing a bounce pass between the two while waiting for Corhen to free up, and also demonstrates the benefit of his length as he pretty effortlessly both sees and passes right over Samuel.
For a smaller and/or less patient/savvy guard, that would have been a much more difficult pass and, even though it didn’t yield points, Warley created a very positive chance.
Here he is against Tech in the ACC Tournament and we get an interesting baseline angle. This play is very Sidesesque as he takes a pin down screen to the wing and then runs a two-man game with his big. Again, he draws both defenders, this time toward the baseline, but has no issue passing over them and puts nice touch on the alley oop.
And here’s one, below, early against UNC where he rejects the ball screen, takes the ball baseline, and finds his man in the opposite corner for a wide-open look. You can see how extremely Cadeau (#2) reacts to the threat of the ball screen to try to get over it, and when Warley rejects it, Bacot really doesn’t have much of a chance to stay in front of him. Basically, he occupies two defenders on this play and neither are actually impeding him.
From what I saw, I’d approximate that Warley rejected a ball screen almost as often as he accepted it, which allowed him to equally punish how his defender was playing him, utilized the threat of his speed, and kept them guessing.
All of that was good, solid PG play/vision/decision making augmented by his ability to get separation and his reach – but he also had the capability of making some passes that really caught the eye. Here’s one against Florida that really stood out to me. He’s directing traffic early in the possession early in the play, gets the ball on the wing and rejects the ball screen (really doesn’t even wait for it), rips the ball through, drives toward the baseline away from traffic, but his man does a good job of cutting off his driving lane. From there, Warley slows his pace, Euro steps through the contact, stays strong with the ball, and then muscles a crazy pass through two defenders to a Jamir Watkins (#2) cutting down the lane.
Everything about that play is impressive; from the body control, to the ball control, to the ability to pick out Watkins on his cut, to the ability to get the ball to him on the run through contact.
And then here’s one more, below, against Tech that’s not quite as crazy but I thought was still impressive. He takes the ball down the cleared out bottom side of the court, spins back into the lane where three VT defenders are converging, and quickly identifies/delivers a pass to the weak side corner over the outstretched hands of the defense.
That’s just quick mental processing and decision making, along with the ability to look over a defense and be able to deliver a pass on a line without a lot of arc (allowing for recovery on the close out). He also drew three defenders to help on his drive because of the pressure that he put on his one-on-one defender, which allowed for the opportunity to begin with.
Warley took care of the ball; his 1.1 turnovers per game had him at a rounding error away from a 3-1 assist to turnover ratio which is basically what Reece’s was (reduced from roughly 6-2). The few turnovers he did have weren’t often through being pressed or from playing out of control, it seemed more from a momentary lapse in concentration. Here’s an example against Colorado where he just kind of falls asleep on the reach/presence of the defender, thinking he could lead a backdoor pass to his teammate:
And here’s another example, below, of a post entry pass against VT where he just gets a little too comfortable in his execution and attempts to throw a left-handed pass off of the bounce to a cutter posting up and just leads it too far toward the hoop and into the defender who steals it.
While these are sloppy and represent mental errors, the encouraging thing is that you rarely saw him get turned over because he was just over-matched, or because his handle wasn’t good enough, or because he was misreading a defense or consistently over-estimating his ability to make a play. And, considering how often he coordinated the offense, broke pressure, and pushed the ball in transition, I feel confident saying that Warley will offer the ball security that CTB covets at the position. But, speaking of a key element of his game…
Transition Basketball
This is where Warley was at his most dangerous, which sparks a conversation because this is where we almost never place emphasis even when we have rosters like last year’s that have the personnel for it. Warley, as we’ve mentioned, is fast and gets downhill in a hurry, and with more ground to cover he’s able to maximize this skill. He’s also very good as a finisher when he can get all the way to the rim or draw a foul. Let’s take a look, starting with the Colorado game. He doesn’t finish here but is fouled, and you’d like to see him try to finish that with his left hand (he can and does but sometimes likes to extend with his right hand from the left side of the hoop to avoid shot blockers or get the ball as close to the rim as possible), but what stands out most about this clip is how it’s not a clear break out. All of Colorado’s defenders are back or even with Warley when he takes the outlet pass but they seem caught off guard with how quickly he gets on them; not ready to stop him from forcing the issue.
That wasn’t a traditional fast break, it was just Warley being aggressive before the defense was fully set.
This next one, below, is against Florida and you’ll see again that the defense is back (and actually more set this time) but Warley has a head of steam coming at them, easily glides past the first defender and uses that extended right-handed scoop to finish past the 6’10” Samuel (#4) without much worry of him blocking it.
I’m reminded of the clear-out sets we’d run in transition two years ago where we’d let Kihei try to surprise his defender and blow by him toward the hoop. That’s something incredibly well-suited for Warley and he probably wouldn’t even need to surprise his defender for it to be effective.
Here, below, against VT we get a sneak preview of him getting switched onto and fronting a post player. He steals the lob pass and goes coast-to-coast with a good spin, body control, and finish to cap it off.
In the previous two clips we saw him just kind of pushing the pace and testing whether the defense was really set. Here he creates an opportunity through his defense and is immediately looking to punish even though VT does have defenders back and he initially bobbles his dribble and has to re-collect.
He’s not just good at leading the break himself, though, he’s also good running out and finishing opportunities. Here against VT we see him take the sideline on a run out after a rebound, time his stride to fill behind two defenders, hang, keep the ball away from the defender, and finish.
Another look against Tech, below, where he reads the defense, delays his run, presents as the trailer, collects the pass, and then Euro steps through contact for the left-handed finish at the rim.
This next one against UNC I really like as he leads the run out, collects the outlet pass without breaking stride, and gets into Armando Bacot’s body while keeping the ball extended away in his right hand for the layup.
It’s nice when your PG can comfortably finish over (around) the opposition’s 6’11” Center without hesitating or even looking like he’s breaking a sweat.
Not commonplace but still relevant, one of FSU’s favorite plays to beat the press was just to send Warley deep and let his speed/height create separation from whoever was fronting him. I’ve clipped it twice; but especially note the body control on the under-thrown second one and how quickly he adjusts and regains his momentum after the catch. Hunter Cattoor on Virginia Tech (#0), specifically, not only gets lost before the catch, but gets completely lost after the catch; anticipating that Warley’s momentum would take him away from the basket.
I showcase those not because I expect they’ll be a staple of what we run with him at UVa (I expect we’ll run our standard press break), but because it really showcases his athleticism, and fluidity. He was like a 6’7″ Wide Receiver out there.
So, the elephant in the room with regard to Jalen Warley will be, on the back of telling recruits that we are open to change, and with having a player like him who thrives so much in the open court; will we be comfortable letting him cook or will we attempt to rein him in in the name of controlled possessions as we are wont to do? The answer to that question will determine whether or not we can truly maximize his potential for us.
Spacing
This is the worst part of Warley’s game and is the biggest reason that I think it’s so important to play him at PG rather than just as a big guard. He’s just not a threat (or at least, was incredibly unwilling) to shoot it from outside. Now, as I alluded to in the intro, fans watching clips from last year are no doubt scarred by watching teams sag off of Ryan Dunn on the perimeter and I want to reassure you by saying that this is not that, at least not nearly as extremely or consistently. Warley does all of the things that I called for Dunn to do last year when teams are cheating off of him; attack the space off of the dribble, cut without the ball, reposition himself to take his man farther away from the play; but it does still create some issues and gum things up from time to time.
Let’s first take a look against Florida. Throughout this play, despite Warley being on the nearside wing throughout, his man is well off of him, with a full foot in the paint at times. The defender deters the driving lanes and as Cam’Ron Fletcher (#21) curls off of a pin down screen, he can see that there’s no space to continue attempting to get into the lane with his right hand. There’s no kick out to Warley off of the help (and we’ll see in some of these clips that FSU would often not make the pass to an open Warley on a kick out), and instead the play results in Watkins settling for a contested three that he could take at any time.
There were other issues on that play, above, as well, but Warley playing off-ball on the wing allowing Florida to consolidate their defense in the paint shaped that look.
This next play vs. Virginia Tech is pretty glaring with regard to how bad of a defender Sean Pedulla (#3) is. But you can see again that he’s playing off of Warley and is in a position where most defenders would be able to step in and bother the driver as he tries to go by. I mean, he’s right there and he sees the play developing for a while… and instead he gives the ole “Olay!” – but the clip is still a good look at how casually many defenders played Warley when he’s off the ball and how a better defender could be a real menace here.
This next clip, below, vs. UNC is increasingly illustrative of the issue and, to UNC’s credit (and it’s not like the scouting time was much different, this was the game following the VT game at the very end of the season), they leaned into cheating off of Warley more than any other team I saw. Elliot Cadeau (#2) plays with a full two feet in the lane with Warley in the weak side corner and then steps just slightly outside of it when the ball rotates. He’s playing DEEP, without worry about recovering for a close out. When Baba Miller (#11) on FSU probes the paint, Bacot is there, but Cadeau also joins to contest/harass the pass and to squeeze the play so that there’s really zero space for a right-handed drive should Miller want it. If you pause from around 2:51-2:52 in the clip you’ll see the chasm between Cadeau and Warley. Cadeau lingers without worry – it’s actually pretty brazen (but effective) from a basketball perspective, and rather than pass it out to Warley, Miller attempts a lob pass over the defense that goes awry.
This last clip, below, from the same game is the most glaring of them all. The play kicks off with Warley taking the ball from the wing and cycling back to the point. Cormac Ryan (#3) switching onto Warley after the ball screen and hanging out down by the free throw line when he has the ball. They’ve clearly read their scouting report. With Ryan playing so deep and Bacot in good position closer to the hoop, Warley really isn’t able to initiate. As an aside here, watch where Harrison Ingram (#55) is defending Watkins when Warley has the ball at the point. He’s just inside of the three-point line, extending his arm into the passing lane so as to deny an easy pass. Warley brings the ball over to Watkins and drops toward the corner and Ingram switches onto him. Now watch Ingram. He’s guarding Warley in roughly the same spot, with Watkins having the ball at the point this time. He has one foot almost in the paint basically forming a two-man wall alongside of Bacot if you pause at 32:36. That’s a stark and clearly visible difference based entirely on not respecting the outside shot. Watkins probes on a drive and draws three players surrounding him – Ryan recovering to him, Bacot helping off of the post, and Ingram helping off of Warley in the corner. Watkins sees but doesn’t kick it out to Warley in the corner, instead sending a cross-court pass to reset the offense. The ball cycles back to Watkins who once AGAIN attempts to drive the same spot on the court, this time drawing another three men, one again being Ingram who abandons Warley in the corner entirely in an attempt to block the shot. Never once in all of this does Watkins kick the ball into the corner for Warley and the entire possession is shaped around UNC’s willingness to just abandon him entirely when he’s off the ball out there.
Now, whether or not you think Warley will make the shot, that’s really bad basketball by Watkins basically just putting his fingers in his ears and trying the same thing over and over. But there’s no doubt that, in FSU’s last game of their season, this was a pretty glaring issue and is concerning. And it’s why, ideally, you aren’t just trying to hide Warley in the corner off of the ball when he’s in the game; you’re better suited allowing him to create, setting ball screens for him, and cycling the offense through so that he’s catching and moving the ball or getting to probe off of the bounce.
That being said, and while these were clear problems, let’s also look at some of the many times he combatted this space, when given it. Here’s a look, below, where FSU has the ball in the near-side corner against Florida and Warley is attempting to pull his man out of the lane by staying well-beyond the three-point line. Realizing it isn’t going to work, he gets to a sprint of a backdoor cut down the lane, makes a difficult catch on the pass, and contorts his body for a good finish on the block.
Here, against Virginia Tech, FSU again has the ball on the near-side of the floor this time with Warley on the weak side wing. 6’9″ Robbie Beran (#31) is sagging off of Warley again, but Warley gets a running start again, cuts across Beran’s face, and finishes in a flash at the rim with the left hand.
Here, again against VT, Warley gets freed up on a pin down screen and is wide-open on the wing. Again, ideally you’d want him just to set and shoot this for the three points, but I’m comfortable with him driving the space quickly for the easy two as he does here.
These are the things that I was clamoring for Ryan Dunn to do last year – cut to the ball and drive the open space when given the opportunity. Warley more consistently looked for these chances and was far more capable at putting the ball on the floor (we’re talking about your PG vs. your SF/PF for anyone conflating the two).
This last clip, below, again against UNC, is the most intentional. When Seth Trimble (#7) stays back when Warley gets the ball on the wing, he first attempts to pass it into the post and relocate away from the ball. This is a smart and helpful way to approach the defense, but Corhen loses the handle and has to leave the block to recollect, passing it back to Warley at the point. This time, Warley directs traffic, sets up a ball screen with Corhen, rejects it, drives the lane quickly and, while he misses his shot, Bacot’s momentum carries him under the hoop and Warley is able to gather and put it back in.
It’s worth noting how quickly that last drive came together and how far Bacot had to take himself out of the play to react to it.
And finally, once more against UNC, although this wasn’t common, he was capable of backing down a smaller player like Cadeau and at least drawing a foul, as he does here. This is something he should certainly look to do more often against smaller guards who play him like this:
So, yes, while the spacing issue is real especially when he is off of the ball, he’s got a variety of tools he’ll go to that help him combat the strategy. Even still, given what he brings when on the ball and this element when he’s off, it’s a strong case to limit the minutes where he’s being used as an off-guard and not the primary point offensively.
Free Throws
Not a ton for this, but I don’t think Warley is solving our free throw woes from last season. He shot 72% for the season and took 102 attempts (second most on the team). He holds the ball fairly far in front of him on the release which looks a little awkward. In the Colorado game, he had quite a few pressure opportunities from the charity stripe. Here, on this clip below (where we get a nice straight-on view of his shot), he made 1 of 2 to tie the game and eventually send it to overtime.
In OT of this game he missed the front end of a 1-and-1 early and then made 1 of 2 late when the team was up five. Not especially great clutch shooting. You’re going to get about 3 of every 4 available points when he’s able to get to the line; which is about the volume of FTs he was getting per game.
Okay, so that wraps up the offensive section. He’s a very talented player who can offer you a lot; but is also pretty narrow in the way that he offers it. If you’re asking him to pilot your offense, make smart decisions, get everyone involved, exploit some mismatches himself, and get up and down the floor in a hurry, there’s a lot of potential here. But if you’re asking him to play ball control, deliberate, offense, or to play off of the basketball… he might be okay, but I don’t think you’ll be happy with your return and you’ll be wasting some real potential.
Defense
On Ball
I’m not going to sandbag and start with another topic here; this is the biggest reason to be excited about bringing Jalen Warley onto the team. His ability to be a complete terror on the ball without having to adhere to a defensive system where it was easy to cycle him away from whatever player the opposition didn’t want him guarding, is enough to make me salivate as a UVa fan. FSU’s defensive system, which switched just about every action, made it incredibly easy for teams to intentionally keep him from being where he was best suited on the floor. RJ Davis went for 18 points on 7-15 shooting against FSU in the ACC Tournament. Almost none of those came with Warley as his primary defender. Often opponents would score many, easy, buckets from the gaps in responsibility that the switching created, and we’ll see some of this later along with how Warley was asked to defend off of the ball. In fact, within these four featured games I’ve highlighted, the only time I can remember a perimeter player specifically attacking him as a direct matchup off of the dribble without switches and having success was a play in which he slipped. Let’s go ahead and take a look…
There’s going to be a whole pressing section, don’t worry, but even though the headliner from this first clip against Colorado comes from the half court, it’s worth pointing out Warley picking up in the full court to start. This is Colorado’s Cody Williams (#10) bringing the ball up the floor. Warley forces him to be aggressive to get past him; pressuring him into a full sprint. He stays level and cuts off the drive angle near the three-point line. When Williams spins back away from Warley, Warley is aggressive about anticipating and trying to steal the dribble; confident in his recovery if he’s unsuccessful. Williams spins a second time away from his aggression, and Warley recovers back into position, baits a pass, and reacts incredibly quickly to deflect the attempted pass back out to the point. Quick to jump on the ball, Warley has secured a fast break opportunity for himself, hits that that Euro step, and draws the foul.
That’s a one-man wrecking crew of a defensive possession there. He harasses Williams the entire time, getting him to play faster than he wants at first and then forcing his back to the basket almost as soon as he crosses half court, which impede his vision and keeps him from setting up the offense. Finally, he lures and jumps the pass, forcing the turnover and turning that into an opportunity.
Here he is, below, single-handedly locking down the Buffaloes at the end of regulation. With under a minute to go in the game, Warley starts off as the primary defender on KJ Simpson (#2). Simpson passes to Caleb Williams and then runs off of him as if he’s going to take a dribble handoff, with Williams faking the DHO, and spinning toward the lane with the drive. FSU switches this action putting Warley on Williams after Simpson passes him. Watch how quickly Warley reacts to the drive. He slides so well to cut off the angle while also twisting his hips to give ground and not foul. Then, once he’s in good defensive position, he’s active with his hands, stripping the ball, causing the scrum, and eventually being the one who ties it up for the jump ball!
If you go back and rewatch that clip from about the 1 hour, 10 minute and 49-50 second mark, that’s the bit that made me audibly, “wow,” when watching. Williams has a slight advantage and his shoulder is low on an aggressive driving angle and Warley contorts his body so that he can give up ground while still getting in better position so that he can strip the ball. It’s a one second window of time where he goes from being slightly behind the play to in fantastic position suffocating the ball without the offensive player (an athletic 6’8″ by the way) ever breaking stride. Also worth noting, Simpson is 6’2″ and averaged almost 20ppg and Warley looms over him in a foreboding way such that they decided to play through Williams, who is 6’8″ and scored 12ppg. But Warley really didn’t cede any length to Williams and had superior mobility. Point being, these are two talented but very different styles and sizes of players and Warley had the advantage against either on the ball starting on the perimeter.
Here he is against Florida, below, and their ultra quick/athletic 6’2″ Walter Clayton Jr. (#1) who averaged almost 18ppg. With a drive attempt on a cleared-out side, Warley just rides Clayton’s hip, forces him to pick up his dribble, and then reaches up high to deflect his attempt at a cross-court pass, forcing a turnover.
Here, in this next clip below, he’s once again making Clayton work to cross the timeline, but Clayton is able to get a very slight advantage on him on the hesitation dribble to the left, improved by a slight rub screen from the post. Despite allowing Clayton to get the angle on him, Warley is still able to use his length to bother the shot and force a missed layup.
Let’s do a couple of clips with him guarding Sean Pedulla from Virginia Tech, who we as Virginia fans are familiar with. The 6’1″ guard (#3, below) is a skilled offensive player who scored over 16 ppg and has a knack both for getting into the lane and looking for his own outside shot. Here he makes the mistake of trying to test Warley with the blowby and Jalen makes the reaction and active hands to force the strip look pretty effortless. Pedulla is smothered here.
And here, below, we see him switch assignments a couple of times to end up on Pedulla in isolation again. He’s able to give a solid buffer. Pedulla fakes the drive and takes a step back three, but Warley’s not really threatened by the drive and you can see doesn’t get put on his back foot, instead responding by going toward the shot. His contest is quick and invasive, and he covers a lot of ground to get there to force the miss.
In a similar light, we’re aware of Hunter Cattoor (#0) on Tech and how much he likes to take the outside shot; but watch, below, how much space Warley is able to give him when he has the ball but he still doesn’t feel comfortable shooting it. Honestly, it’s very impressive at the amount of open floor space available to Cattoor when he first catches the pass in this clip below, and how he ends his touch of the ball by just non-threateningly dribbling the ball on the perimeter and passing it away. It’s like you can almost hear his inner monologue deciding against challenging Jalen.
He’s really good at contesting the outside shot as one might expect from his mobility and length. Above are a couple of good examples, here’s one, below, against Florida, where it’s just hard to get away from his reach (but his teammate fouls).
But if I had any criticism of his on-ball defense, and it wouldn’t be much, it’s that he can be over-aggressive on his contests; sometimes taking himself out of the play after a miss, occasionally fouling the shooter, like in this clip, below:
You’d like more situational awareness in that one; it immediately called to mind Ryan Dunn and Jordan Minor fouling three-point shooters late in games last year. But, it was rare, I like the aggressiveness in general, and bothering outside shots was certainly a strength of his. The main area he’ll want to clean up on ball (but it extends to off-ball as well) is not taking himself past the play, thus putting him out of position; but I expect that changing defenses will help with this/where he is positionally.
One last clip to illustrate a slightly different type of play, as he impacts the game in a lot of different areas that won’t show up on the stat sheet but do keep points off of the board. As an example, how well he defends this 2-on-1 fast break, below. He retreats, keeps a good depth to discourage the pass back, swipes to bother the shot on the way up while still retreating, without fouling, and forces a miss on a play that should be an easy two points (or and-1) most of the time.
To wrap this section – what I’m most excited about with Warley coming to play for us is not just his impact defending on the ball, as displayed above, but that our system is better suited to keep him on the right players (we’ll talk about how FSU struggled to do this a bit in the off-ball section). He’ll be able either to shut down the opposing team’s most potent guard if that’s the primary goal. Sometimes we switch guard to guard screens, and we could work to keep him on the active ball handler as much as possible if that was our priority. Point being, his on ball defense is a huge asset and is something that CTB and his system is well-suited to weaponize if we play him in that way.
Pressing
Normally I’d transition into off-ball defense next, but with Warley it makes more sense to segue from his on-ball defense into his full-court pressure. Just like the Transition section under my offensive review is going to be highly dependent on our willingness to utilize that style of play, this is more so. We do run in transition situationally, but we almost never systemically press unless we’re down big. That’s also something I doubt that we’ll change much; but what we HAVE seen us do on occasion historically is pressure the ball up the floor. The Kihei Clark 10 second violation against VCU, anyone? I could definitely see us deploying Warley in that way as a sole point of pressure when opponents bring the ball up the floor; so there’s still relevance here and it also shines a light on some options we could play around with if we really were taking this whole “change” idea seriously.
This first clip is probably one of my favorite sequences from him and you get some bonus offensive footage early with his blowby drive and finish at the rim; but then he jumps right into a rangy (and gorgeous) steal of the inbound pass and turns that into just an incredibly acrobatic second finish at the rim over Lampkin.
Four points in a matter of seconds. That was just one of those, “oh, so he’s just going to take over the game now.” sequences.
Here he is against Florida stealing the inbound pass and finding a teammate (who passes out to another teammate for a missed three):
Here he fronts, trails, speeds up, and eventually forces the turnover from Walter Clayton Jr.:
And in this last one we see him at UNC, this time not fronting the inbound but roaming with his eyes on the inbounder like a safety. He swoops in to deflect the pass and cause the turnover, takes the pass from his teammate on the floor, and has good court vision to switch the floor with a long pass to further develop the play (which ended in a put back).
I won’t spend too much more time here because of relevance, but it showcases his ability to speed teams up, get his hands on the ball, and sow chaos in the open floor. And, while I’m not sure we have the roster to support him here nor are we likely to do anything in this broader area – having him pick up full court by himself and force the other team’s ball handler either to work or not initiate the offense is something we may see from him.
Off Ball Defense
Now it gets a little messy but also fun. I’ve talked quite a bit about the switching of FSU, but now we’re going to see it in action and Warley in a variety of situations. In some cases, how he defends a situation is based on scheme and isn’t directly relatable to what we’d do, especially with how often he would just get directly switched onto post players, as I’ll showcase first. Across the board, though, we can relate many of these situations to what we do.
In this first clip of the game against Colorado, we’re going to see Warley start out on KJ Simpson, but the simple action of him crossing in front of Eddie Lampkin Jr. (not a screen or any kind of difficult action to defend) causes FSU to switch, sending the 6’10” Cam Corhen out on the 6’2″ Simpson and leaving Warley on Lampkin who, recall, runs 6’11” 265lbs! It’s so unnecessary and deserves a system rant by FSU fans far and wide, but it’s a great point to highlight because we won’t be asking Warley to do this. When positioned into the post, Warley’s go to move was to attempt to front (we saw him steal a lob pass earlier), but he didn’t have the physical size/bulk to be effective in there. In this clip, we see him do an admirable job of contesting the shot on Lampkin’s quasi up and under (more just a slight ball fake and a step through with size), but he can’t maintain any kind of positioning to secure a rebound and Lampkin collects his own shot and kicks the pass out for a good look.
I want to be very clear here – saying that Warley isn’t a good interior defender on a Center isn’t a knock on his game. He shouldn’t (and won’t) be asked to do that with any regularity. But, on occasion, our off-side guards to have to drop down into the post when we’re hedging or for double teams. I think Warley’s ability to at least affect the first shot here is encouraging on that front as it’s relevant to us.
Similar in concept in this clip below, a simple ball screen from Bacot on RJ Davis takes Warley off of Davis and puts him as the solo defender on Bacot. This is something UNC regularly did to create mismatches, smartly. Now, while it’s clear that Warley is struggling to front him and I have zero confidence that he would have been able to secure the rebound if UNC had taken a shot with him in that situation, it is to his credit that, as a PG, he was able to front and keep Bacot from getting the ball. Look at how far forward he leans when Bacot pushes him in the back; it’s a huge weight disadvantage, but UNC doesn’t see enough that they like to attempt the lob and, instead, Cormac Ryan draws a foul.
Once more, you shouldn’t (shame, FSU), and we aren’t, expecting our PG to be able to defend probably the best Center in the ACC one-on-one under the hoop. But I find these efforts encouraging with regard to his ability to still impact play while he’s down there and not make things easy, even when disadvantaged.
This next clip, below, is a little more natural on that front as it relates to a defense like ours because he doesn’t have to switch. Guarding KJ Simpson off of the ball, he shades him with a hand in the passing lane, does well to step in and bother the dribble of a Colorado player without losing his man (and fronting Simpson through the lane), and then has the awareness to stay home with 6’8″ Luke O’Brien (#0) free off of a cut, to stand firm, swipe at the ball, and force a turnover.
That look above is more like what you might see from us when he’s not on the ball and was done very well.
He starts this next possession, below, by having a hand in the passing lane to the wing (more on this later), then switches on the cutter through the lane, but is once again in good position to stay at home and defend the drive coming from the opposite side. He bothers the shot on the way up and then goes straight up, forcing the miss. I would want him to get into better rebounding position after that first shot, instead he kind of drifts under the basket and we’ll speak about his drifting a bit more shortly (and his rebounding), but he IS successful as the last line of defense in forcing the miss.
This next look against Florida, below, is another look much more like he’d see with us. Florida moves the ball to the near-side wing and FSU pinches in on the post, causing Warley to play between two offensive players on the weak side, needing to be able to react toward either on a pass (or to jump the passing lane). The pass goes from the baseline to Will Richard (#5) in the corner, whose initial man, Josh Nickelberry (#20) recovers out to him. Richard uses Nickelberry’s momentum against him, and drives the lane, but Warley absolutely pounces on his dribble from his help position, using two hands to rip the ball out before falling on it on the floor.
This is good, attacking help side, actively looking to make a play on the ball.
This next one is a lot of the FSU switching, but it is a good look at how well he communicates within and executes a defensive scheme, which will translate well to us if he can pick up the Pack Line quickly (which I believe he has the experience to do). Notice that Tech runs a Spain screen here where they set a ball screen on Warley with a big and then have a guard/wing set a back screen for the big/initial screener, while flaring to the corner. This is a notoriously hard set to defend/communicate but FSU’s system and crisp communication does allow them to defend it effortlessly. Notice how Warley switches onto the man who screens him and then seamlessly switches on to the next screener to start the play. It could be a complicated action but FSU almost doesn’t have to move despite Warley having switched men twice already. Flowers to FSU there since I’ve been talking about the issues with their scheme, that was a strength and it was crisp. Anyway, Warley follows his man through the lane and then executes another switch, this time putting him back onto Pedulla. VT is discombobulated at this point because nothing has been working, and Warley’s good ball denial pressure forces a turnover as there’s a misread between Pedulla and his teammate on whether to make/take the pass or not vs. Warley’s presence.
While, again, this isn’t how we’d defend a lot of this action, it’s a good look at Warley as a savvy and aware defender who can execute a system against a tricky offensive set very well.
This next one, against UNC below, should look pretty familiar now with Warley being in position to stay at home to defend the rim at the end of the possession, and LOOK at that block on RJ Davis (makes me smile)! But I also like the opportunism and confidence that Warley has in this play, venturing pretty far away from his man to attempt to bother UNC’s dribble while being confident that he can turn and recover quickly enough when that pass is kicked back outside to his man.
That’s really good stuff just with him being a very active defender off the ball to try to insert himself into the play across several areas, ultimately being well positioned and capable of rejecting a very good scorer in the lane.
That level of opportunism and aggressiveness to make a play off of the ball was a double-edged sword, though. At times he’d have a little too much confidence in his ability to impact the ball or to recover after missing out that it would allow an opportunity for the opposition. Sometimes that was by design – aggressive with the goal of funneling players toward shot blockers – but sometimes he didn’t always walk that fine line. Here against Florida, for example, he switches off of his initial man with the goal of over playing Will Richard (#5) in the corner. He just gets a little too lax, though, and isn’t alert enough on the back door cut. The play requires that Richard make an incredibly acrobatic finish over the help side, which he does, but Warley should be keeping him from getting this pass.
This next play, below, is more what the play above should have looked like (and bonus points for leading the break the other way and picking out a quality early pass):
I like that last play was against the same team and same player in a very similar situation, but Warley learned from it, was alert to it, and made the play.
But here’s a similar over-confidence/losing his man a little against RJ Davis on the backdoor from the wing that, in this case he has the length to get back into the play and force the miss, but he’ll want to tighten this up a bit.
But, all-in-all, just like sometimes he was a little over-aggressive with his closeouts, his confidence and risk-taking was worth the reward most of the time. I’ll offer two more clips to illustrate this point.
This first one, below, offering a pretty similar look to how he might play help side with us off of a post double team or a hedge. Firstly, there are some subtle things that jump out in this clip that make me really appreciate his mentality. He starts the possession on the ball and is reading his man. Watch how far he jumps down to try to deny the pass to the wing with the confidence that his initial man won’t be able to punish/beat him back to the basket. That’s disruptive in and of itself and forces Florida to catch the ball far away from the basket. It’s also a sign of his mentality. They’re down 22 with less than 6 minutes to play in the game here and he’s expending energy to deny wing passes. I love that. As his man cuts through the lane and he’s help side, you can see him reacting to cutters and it’s almost like he’s salivating for an attempt to jump at a pass, but he’s also sagging pretty far off of his man, not in this case because he’s a poor shooter, he’s not, but because he knows that he can recover out to him. That’s a big deal as it relates to our ability to recover/help on the back side within our defense. As the drive goes to the baseline, he collapses into the paint near the restricted circle, helping to absolutely gum up the works and denying any opportunity for a pass to the cutter. In the process, he leaves his man relatively unattended on the outside, but the presence of the FSU defenders on the collapse (including his) makes sight lines terrible and the Florida ball handler has to anticipate where he thinks the kick out is, throwing it away. Of note, Warley looks pretty confident in his ability to close that gap with a pass like that if it had been on target.
And lastly, this clip below just shows his alertness and how he’s always looking for an opportunity to attack on the defensive end. Pressing up from the weak side in the passing lane, he reads that the pass is coming to the post player, who has his back to him. Warley leaves his man and swoops in for the blind side steal and then attempts to posterize him going the other way (drawing the foul instead).
Now, I’m not AS excited about Warley’s defense off of the ball as I am his on-ball defense. Sometimes his gambles don’t pay off, sometimes he gets a little lax, sometimes he takes himself out of position, and he drifts a bit (as we’ll see shortly on the Rebounding section). He’s not a vertical or physical presence inside and he’s not going to come flying from the weak side to swat many shots out of bounds. But, he is capable of impacting shots and causing disruption on the interior, especially when left as the last line of defense against players coming downhill at him. He’s great at covering space and closing gaps, blowing up passing lanes, and he’s very good at sensing opportunities to make a play on the ball.
Alright, one final section…
Rebounding
Warley is not a natural rebounder despite his size. You’d expect that as a 6’7″ PG that he would offer some added benefit there – crashing down and helping his teammates to secure the glass on either end; but that’s not the strength of his game. I don’t want to describe him as a disinterested rebounder, because that implies a lack of motivation; but he often deferred to his teammates to secure the glass, seemed focused more on the other elements of the game, and didn’t have a great feel of where to go or how to position himself when securing the boards. Where you felt his length as he covered ground laterally as with many of the clips below, you didn’t feel it vertically, as he’d often be around the ball with players slightly larger or around his same size and not really be able to contest for the board. Primarily, I think it’s a combination of positioning and focus/priority. Let’s take a look at a few examples:
This first look really isn’t a showcase of his ability but it is of his attention/prioritization of rebounding. The shot goes up from the opposite corner and he just ball watches, not looking to box his man out at all. His man crashes the glass and secures the long rebound easily.
This next one, below, is hardly fair because he again gets switched onto the opposing team’s big unnecessarily. He’s only giving up 2 inches to Mylyjael Poteat (#34) on Virginia Tech, but he is giving up 60 pounds. So, when the shot goes up, he tries really hard to box out but it plays out like the guard/post mismatch you’d expect it to be with a shorter player.
Here’s another look, below, against UNC. You wouldn’t call this his fault but it’s discouraging that he couldn’t get himself more into this play to be more disruptive on the glass. The defensive switching puts the 6’5″ Darin Green Jr. (#22) on Harrison Ingram (#55) and Warley on Armando Bacot (#5). Elliot Cadeau (#2) drives the lane and gets a layup off of the glass, forcing the smaller Green to try to keep Ingram off of the glass, which he’s unable to do. But if you watch Warley on the play when this shot goes up, the other two players are moving to go attack the ball. He’s trailing the play, but he’s kind of waltzing into it slowly and really a non-factor.
The thing about that play above is, he’s the same height as Ingram and he certainly has the opportunity to contest this board if he’d gotten a running start and fought for it. But there’s something holding him back from being aggressive on the glass – he hesitates.
This next clip is a good look at his ability to impact a shot with his help side defense again, but it introduces the question around his rebounding again. He does well to cut through the lane and deny any passing opportunities to his man in the corner and then he cuts back through to the other side, shadowing his assignment. When KJ Simpson (#2) drives, Warley reacts well and helps to bother/alter the layup attempt by crashing down help side… but when he doesn’t collect the pass and Simpson gets the ball back, Warley doesn’t to well to insert himself back into the play. He kind of jumps vertically around the follow up shot, which Simpson misses again, but finds himself leaning backward again, and Simpson actually beats him to the rebound again but the ball is fortunately deflected out of bounds.
The shot contest is good but the rest is pretty bad here. It’s not physical, it’s not aggressively trying to grab the ball off of the glass, and his second jump is very slow. Not a good sign when the 6’2″ player is more explosive vertically trying to hunt the rebound than you are. He just doesn’t look comfortable and kind of floats around the rim without seeming to know what to do with himself when the ball is in the air/coming off of the rim. It reminds me a bit of Blake Buchanan earlier this past season on the defensive glass when he was turning and ball watching a lot. More excusable for Warley as a PG but also not ideal as a veteran player who has the size and ability to just go up and snatch this after the miss.
This next look, below, against Florida, is a more clear example of that above where he’s pulling himself out of position by drifting around the rim. Warley is providing weak side help and when Riley Kugel (#2) drives baseline he steps up to help. At the point he starts, he’s right under the basket and he puts his arms straight up to help – but he actually drifts past Kugel entirely when doing so, floating out of position, if you will. Kugel gets a pass into the corner to Warley’s man who takes and misses a three, but rather than keeping that inside leverage around the hoop that he had, he curls himself around behind Tyrese Samuel (#4) really pulling himself out of rebounding position and, as a result, he gives a foul on the board.
For as savvy as he is all over the floor on the defensive side of the ball… this is the opposite. It’s just not a great grasp of positioning, how to maintain a rebounding advantage or what to do with himself when a shot goes up. If he didn’t drift on the Kugel contest and then stayed put on the pass, pivoting back toward the lane and opening toward the shooter, he’d have been either in good position for a weak side rebound or, sensing his teammates had that covered, could have launched forward to try to box out Samuel with good positioning.
This last example is probably the most glaring at how unnatural this is for him. It starts off with a nice example of him standing up to Harrison Ingram (#55) attempting to back him into the lane. He cedes a little ground but doesn’t get out of position and forces a pass to the corner. But pause it at 43:21 when the shot goes up. Cadaeu shoots it from the corner and the weak side is entirely cleared out. Warley is in the center of the lane with no one to his right and a teammate boxing out Bacot on the strong side block. Most anyone who has played basketball for a while is going to intuitively sense that if a shot from that angle comes off, it’s most likely going to keep its momentum and come off of the rim toward the weak side (bottom side of the screen). Now I get that Warley has responsibility for Harrison and he sticks his arm backward to keep contact with him and make sure he has a feel for where he is, but otherwise he’s just standing still in the center of the lane, slightly shaded toward the shooter. At the very least, you’d want him to immediately locate Ingram and then start moving toward the opposite side of the rim so that he could go attack that rebound if it came off in its natural direction. That’s the other element to this; he’s flat-footed without actually boxing someone.
Now, Jamir Watkins completely falls asleep on Cormac Ryan who swoops in for the board and the put back, and the result of the play is much more his fault than Warley’s, but there’s a significant lack of rebounding canny on display here.
To close on a positive, he will sometimes attack a clear mismatch, like below here where Sean Pedulla is tasked with keeping him off of the glass. That’s an aggressive crash and he makes it look easy.
But you’d like to see that energy and fight to go get the ball sustained against players closer to his size.
In Conclusion
Putting all of that together, I’m very bullish on the Warley signing IF he’s utilized in a very specific way. If he’s your true PG, primary ball handler, and point of attack defender, then you’ve really got a player who can give you some distinct advantages. He can use his speed and length to punish smaller defenders and attack the rim. He can run efficient and turnover-lite offense for you, steadying the ship. He can be more aggressive about pushing opportunities in transition if you’re so inclined. He can pressure the ball up and down the floor and absolutely clamp down on the primary ball handler. His help side defense can be rangy and his close outs suffocating at times against smaller guards. And his presence, when coupled with appropriately sized 2-5 guys, really goes a long way toward establishing a lengthy lineup that can bolster your roster in a lot of ways.
On the other hand, if you’re playing him just as a “big guard” to compliment another PG, you’re losing a lot of the distinct advantages that he brings to the table and making his weaknesses more relevant. If he’s off the ball on offense then you’re going to have to deal with his lack of shooting much more regularly and, while it shouldn’t be the same thing we saw last season, it would likely pose some problems. If he’s, say, covering the opposing team’s SF on defense, he should be fine – he’s a good defender regardless – but, ideally you don’t want “fine,” you want the special sauce that is a 6’7″ condor gliding fluidly all over the floor, hounding a 6’1″-6’4″ initiator, and providing bonus/unexpected length around the rim on either side. That’s unique and valuable, where he wouldn’t be that different in stature than most ACC 3s – maybe more mobile but not as strong. Additionally, he’s not a good rebounder, which is a much bigger issue outside of the PG position (especially if he’s used at SF) where he’ll often be used to balance the floor anyway.
So, yeah, it really depends on how we use him, in my opinion. It’s not to say that he’ll definitely be “bad” if he’s not primarily playing PG for us this season, but it is to say that it will be a pretty big opportunity cost re: how Warley’s value can be maximized if he isn’t. I’m sure there are some ways he could be mix and matched where he runs the offense but defends off of the ball or vice versa, but I’m telling you – treat him as a true Point Guard (not a Combo Guard, not a Small Forward), on both sides of the ball – and I expect that will lead to the best possible outcomes for our team this season.
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