Well, well, well…. Our first commitment for the class of 2025 and it’s the homegrown talent! I think UVa Basketball social media broke on Friday afternoon when Chance Mallory announced his commitment. Mallory is the 53rd ranked player in the country in On3’s composite ratings and is the first in-state recruit to land on scholarship to the team since 2014 (that’s a crazy fact)!
The Charlottesville native has created a ton of buzz around his decision; and I can’t remember the fanbase being this fired up around a recruiting win since… maybe Kyle Guy? Honestly, probably not even since then, which, let me tell you, is going to make it a ton of fun for someone like me to write objectively. I think it’s because so many fans of the team have already seen him play, or followed him, or known someone who knows him, or read about him in the local paper… etc. Mallory is going to be an absolute lightning rod for debate and engagement which will almost certainly be an energizing thing for the program.
Now, I’m not here to do my normal thing where I break down 30+ clips on his game… I save that for college tape. But I will pull a couple of clips here just to outline the kind of player we could be getting and then to have the broader discussion. But first a few other thoughts about his recruitment:
It IS great AND important to get the local talent. It’s been a long time since we’ve even tapped into the state – instead, the mid-west, North Carolina, NY/NJ, and the west coast have all being more lucrative recruiting hotbeds for us lately. It doesn’t feel great to have the Maliq Browns of the world just an hour down the street in Culpeper going off to Syracuse and now, (shudders) transferring to Duke. You’d like to get as many of what should be easier wins as possible when the talent is there. Having Mallory stay at home not only drives local engagement to considerably higher levels, but it’s a good story to try to win more area talent. Distance from home is often a big recruiting factor. Let’s keep these guys who were fans of the program growing up around and help to put to bed the narrative that we can only land Wisconsin kids (and all of those other areas too, but you get the point).
It’s also a big deal, and we’ll talk about this more soon, because of the type of player that Mallory is. He is a lot of different things which we’ll discuss, but above all else, he is offensive fireworks! If you’re adding Chance Mallory to your program, you’re adding someone with deep range, who has no conscience as a shooter, who can microwave you some offense in a hurry on his own and, conversely, create opportunity for others given the threat he poses himself. Keep in mind, UVa hasn’t played a basketball game that counts since scoring 42 points against Colorado St. in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament last March. And, in fact, in a recruitment that’s gone on for over a year, Mallory seemed to cool on the Cavaliers throughout this rough offensive season only to come on strong at the end. Now, perhaps that was all just perception and rumor, and he never actually cooled. But the point being, that a player with such offensive talent chose to come here. He wasn’t derailed by pace, nor style of play, nor system. The optics on his momentum along with the comments from recruits and those plugged into practices all make me think there’s real fire behind the smoke that is the offensive augmentation this offseason. It’s certainly enough to be hopeful about – because Mallory benefits from playing quickly and having no brakes on his shot selection.
So, if you aren’t familiar with him, let’s talk a little bit about Mallory’s game. He’s a very small (5’9″) score-first PG who can light it up in a hurry. His range is deeeeep. Deep like this:
He’s spotting up from Delaware for the return pass and notice how quickly he gets into his shooting motion on the catch. What I also love about that clip is that he had missed quite a few before that, per the announcers, and there’s zero hesitation from so far away. He has no conscience as a shooter in the best possible way because he is such a good one.
He can get it off quickly and off of the bounce, like using the ball screen here:
Of off of the bounce here, when defenders flat hedge and attempt to recover, he just takes that little step back and it’s bombs away:
Or trailing, like here…
This one, below, is so hard to defend because he probes the lane, forces a collapse, but then relocates so far away with the pass back it lulls his man to sleep with how deep he is and how quick that shot comes (and from how far).
Floaters in the lane without breaking his stride, like here:
And sometimes the downright spectacular, like here:
I’m showing a small sample size (especially by the Cuts standard) here because, again, it’s AAU and high school and I only deep-dive college tape; but I assure you that these plays aren’t flukes. The range is true, the handle is pure and purposeful (and he can do whatever he wants with it), and the finishing in the midrange is fluid and efficient. In fact, he was the 7th most efficient scorer in the Under Armor Association and at the highest PPG (21.1) of anyone in the top 10 of that category. It’s not just that he was some volume scorer; he did so at a very effective clip.
Chance is naturally going to draw many Kihei Clark comparisons because of his size and because of the program; but their offensive game really aren’t similar at all. Clark was always pretty hesitant to shoot and needed quite a bit of space to do so. His release wasn’t very quick and he often liked to kind of line it up and take his time with it. He got a little better about that as his career progressed, but even as a pro now you can almost see him mentally convincing himself to let the shot go when he’s got a look. Mallory, on the other hand, is an absolute wired scorer where if you blink, a shot is going up from pretty much anywhere on the floor.
I’ve seen a lot of player comps for Chance over the past couple of days, but I’m not sure there’s actually a clean comparison. There are elements to his game you’ll see in others. He’s much like Carsen Edwards in his willingness/quickness to shoot and his ability to do so spotting up, on the move, or off of the dribble. He’s like Markquis Nowell in the range with which he’s willing to take his shot, more similar in size, and in the toughness he plays with around the rim where he finishes things you wouldn’t expect him to be able to. He’s obviously not as big as Edwards nor as polished of a passer as Nowell – but kind of a hybrid of those two players is where I think his upside is without being unrealistic.
Now, size does matter, and you have to keep that in mind with how his offensive game will translate. I typically say to beware of players who have to do the spectacular against lesser competition because, while it’s great that they can, it’s often hard to replicate those kinds of shots once the athleticism and coaching takes a step up. Better sometimes to have guys who make it look easier at that level and still have a higher gear… but I’ve changed my tune a little bit watching a good deal of Mallory. His range and the ability to pull defenders so far away from the hoop should translate, both in his ability to find those shots and to open up the second level of the defense with more space. I expect his touch around the hoop will also translate, especially with his floater and jumper in the midrange. He’s very quick and can punish players over-playing his shot. He’s deceptively strong and physical and the aforementioned handle is so good I expect he’ll be able to command the ball at this level. Basically, it could be more of a challenge at this level, but he’s such a skilled offensive player, especially from range, that I think he can keep doing spectacular things even against the jump in competition and he’ll probably always draw the oppositions best perimeter defender while doing so (which is great for shooters like iMac or Sharma).
Around the rim, I expect he’ll need to adjust his game so that he’s creating those opportunities and then laying more off to a teammate to finish – but he seems skilled and capable in that regard, he just hasn’t really had to at the HS/AAU level yet. It’s not going to come as easily – but it never does in college – but I don’t believe it will take long for him to become very effective as an offensive PG who can put up points in a hurry or set the table for the rest of his team.
Where I most question the translation is on the defensive side of the ball. While Chance is certainly an athletic player, he does play below the rim and his size will almost assuredly create some trade-offs even if his offensive game is as advertised from the jump. He does pressure the ball handler pretty well and has active hands and good anticipation – so if we can keep him mostly in that capacity it will help. If he’s off the ball a great deal, then we’ll see it quite a bit in passing lanes as we did with Kihei when we started playing Reece on the ball more regularly.
But, even when he’s on the ball, he’ll have his challenges contesting jumpers:
He does well to invade the shooter’s space and not foul there, but that’s the kind of shot that high quality scorers at the collegiate level will feel confident taking because they’ll know they can get their look pretty comfortably.
He’ll run into a good deal of this, below, where certain PGs will use their size to try to back him down:
And he’ll need support defending it because this is just a little too easy/little resistance – but, also, he should have more help around the rim than he does on St. Anne’s H.S. team.
He had a tendency to get buried on pick and rolls when defending against ball screeners or having trouble getting back into the play after getting caught behind:
And that’s going to be a hard thing to negate entirely because the screeners will be even bigger and it will be easy for him to get lost in the recovery space. In that game above, his team moved him off of the ball defensively after a few plays similar to this… which, you don’t really want to have to do at the collegiate level. There aren’t many places to hide a player, and length is so important in our defensive system off the ball.
Point being, at least early on in his time here (and probably throughout), it’s probably going to be an offense/defense trade-off and we’re going to need to keep a close eye on how that’s going game-to-game. But here’s the thing: in all of those games shown above at both the HS and AAU level against quality competition, despite those defensive clips, he was arguably (and in some cases just overtly) the best player on the court in each one. So, it is very possible to expect that the trade-off there is going to be, at some point but maybe sooner than later, worth it.
And that means we’re going to need to be very intentional about who we pair with him!
Recently, I had a discussion about the lack of collective team size we’ve been playing with, focusing on the SF position, but also mentioning how we’ve gone small at Center and the drop-off of our defense over recent seasons. We’ve done so to try to spark our offense, to try to spread the floor more for driving lanes with the requisite number of shooters, and to try to have a certain number of initiators/shooters on the floor.
But, with Mallory, you aren’t going to have to make as many trade-offs for the offensive side of the ball because he’s the tradeoff. He should be able to carry a lot of that load himself. So, what does that mean? It means that we’re going to want to prioritize defense, and size, to pair with him.
There’s a reason why in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 Kihei Clark was a much more effective defender than he was later in his career – and it’s for a couple of reasons. Firstly, there was no confusion about him being the primary on-ball defender when he was in the game; that’s what he did well and wasn’t being pulled off the ball because there was someone (Reece) who was better at it. Secondly, he could afford to lean into the thing he did really well, which was to harass and get into the body of opposing ball handlers as much as possible. He’d get underneath them and make their ability to handle the ball and pilot the offense miserable. He could do that because when he was beaten off of the dribble (which was more often than you probably remember), he had some combination of Jay Huff, Mamadi Diakite, De’Andre Hunter, Braxton Key, and Jack Salt behind him to take up space with mobility and to protect the rim. Later in his career that support became increasingly thinner and less impactful until there became a point where, when he was beaten, it was very likely ending up in a bucket because of the lack of rim protection behind, which caused him to play less aggressively and, in turn, negated much of that “special sauce” that was Kihei’s defense. Those early rosters are how we’re going to need to use and support Mallory but, unlike Clark who was still very much a pass-first PG, Mallory should supplement that support with lots of buckets.
Practically speaking, what does this mean? It means a player like Jacob Cofie’s development becomes incredibly important. Assuming we’re going to play with one of Blake Buchanan and Anthony Robinson at Center most of the time (but that Cofie can also slide in there on occasion), we’re still going to need more back-end help and rim protection than we did previously. Can Cofie develop into a regular part of the rotation at PF? If we’re playing TJ Power there, will we be able to play a bigger wing at SF like Elijah Saunders (as mentioned in my last piece) or in someone else through the portal or the upcoming high school class? It means the recovery of Elijah Gertrude takes on more importance because his athleticism and defensive support from the guard position (and ability to get out and run) compliments Mallory very well. Can you play Mallory with both iMac and Sharma next year? You probably could and that would be a lethal shooting lineup – but it’s honestly probably a redundancy of shooters and not enough defensive presence 1-3. Christian Bliss, as a 6’4″ ball handler who will hopefully have the size and skills (shooting but an emphasis on defense and creation) to pair well with Mallory and could give you the option to move Mallory off of the ball some where he could also be effective (although I think you want him as your primary PG most of the time he’s in because the dual threat he offers and the way he stretches the defense when he has the ball in his hands is a unique advantage).
The biggest challenge I foresee is the Dai Dai Ames of it all. Ames should be one of our two main initiators this season and, by the time Chance arrives on grounds, will be a Junior with a ton of major conference playing experience. The problem is that his skillset overlaps with Chance in a lot of key ways. Ames is bigger than Mallory at 6’0″ but is still a small PG and, even though he also played alongside the 5’11” Tylor Perry last season, you’d want him to be your smallest player on the floor. His shot, especially from outside, isn’t close to having the precision (or the ability to get it off quickly) that Mallory’s does; and, while he also has a really nice handle, he doesn’t appear as quick, explosive, or polished with his offensive game (he is more physical). Now, perhaps with a full additional season under his belt, that will change for Dai Dai. You certainly could envision a world where he runs the point and Mallory runs the SG – but then you’re really going to want to lean into size/athleticism 3-5 in a way that I’m not sure we yet have on the roster. We can feel fairly guaranteed that iMac in his Senior season is going to carry heavy minutes, and what happens to a developing Sharma, or even a Senior year Andrew Rohde? What happens to a still developing PG in Bliss or a (hopefully healthy) Elijah Gertrude? Mallory, Ames, and iMac as your three guards will probably get you absolutely killed defensively, IMO.
You could always delay Chance’s path to PT and wait until his Sophomore season to lean harder into his minutes. Surely, deferring to more experience is not foreign to CTB; but I think it’s pretty unlikely given what we know about his playing time choices as well as the potential for offensive firepower that Chance brings to the table being unparalleled on the roster. Plus, even if you delay his playing time his Freshman season (and get him to stay), you still theoretically have a Sr. Ames, Jr. Bliss, So. Mallory PG triangle the following year – and do you want a player as offensively gifted as Mallory feeling as though he has a log jam ahead of him for PT? Probably not. You’re probably going to see him crack the rotation right away. Do you want to jam all three of those guys into regular PT given the other guys on the roster and defensive needs? Also, probably not.
Assuming that’s the case, thinking about just next season, you’ve got all of Ames, Bliss, Mallory, iMac, Rohde, Gertrude, Sharma, Saunders, Power, Cofie, Buchanan, Robinson. A 12-man group to rotate through not accounting for any new additions.
Having lots of talent is a great problem to have and any good program is going to deal with it. Ideally, you put your best lineups on the floor, give some preference to your long term upside all things equal, and you have to live with the expected attrition in the modern age of the portal. But this is my worry, and is why I think that the Mallory experience could swing from having an incredibly high ceiling but also a pretty low floor. The floor of this experience isn’t Mallory not translating his offensive game at this level (which I think is unlikely), nor just not working out as a recruit, nor not finding playing time and transferring or having to wait until his Sophomore season to get run. None of those are actually very risky because it would likely mean that our other guys were doing incredibly well and there is ostensibly a lot of talent on the roster now. Rather, the floor of this experience is that we jam some wacky (and small) lineups together to try to support reps for a certain threshold of talented guards who don’t all pair well together. That we don’t look to negate Chance’s weaknesses with roster composition if we do turn to him early. This has been our Achilles’ heel for a while now and avoiding it is going to require CTB make some very difficult choices and to skew away from some of his more recent trending. It’s going to have to be okay to see some of our experience walk if it means clearing the way for an even higher level of talent. And, transparently, having some combination of Ames, Bliss or Rohde move on after this coming season to pave the way for Chance and to open some slots for another defensive guard/wing in the portal, would probably be a positive outcome for the team.
So, no, I don’t want to see us trying to load up the floor with all of these talented guards and watch us get crushed on size/athleticism in the name of scoring. Playing Chance as your PG and McKneely or Sharma as your SG… supplement that with defense and guys who can finish around the rim (and players like Saunders, Power and Cofie who provide the shooting as well). Keep Ames as your starter and back him up with Mallory next year? Sounds great, but you’re probably going to need to be willing to accept what that means for Bliss and Rohde. Play Mallory and Bliss together? Okay, but be prepared for what that means for Ames. Difficult choices are going to have to be made next season, but please let those choices consider positional size with regard to lineup composition as well as individual upside.
In Conclusion
Chance Mallory is what I would call a build-around player. What I mean when I use that term, is that you have to build your roster to be mindful of the fact that you’re going to have him in it. Not any old normal thing will do – you need to tailor to the fact you know you’re going to have him out there.
The great news is that he offers you the potential for something really special in certain areas; and offensive talent unlike what we’ve had in a while ideally supporting a playstyle unlike we’ve had under CTB ever. But you also will probably need to support his inclusion in the lineup in specific ways. Surround him with quality defenders and plus positional size and athleticism (ideally that can shoot, too) and prioritize those things over your more traditional lineup preferences. I believe we’re going to want to get him on the floor as quickly as possible, but I’m concerned that we’re not going to give enough credence to that need for roster fit.
At the very least, he should be a joy to watch play in a unique way to what we’ve seen under CTB – and his signing is energizing for the city and a positive sign for the evolution of the program.
How quickly and effectively does his game translate at this level, how patient can we afford to be with him, and how much are we willing to tailor what we do and the choices we make to compliment his strengths and weaknesses – those things will be the determining factors in how his time here goes.
Welcome aboard, Chance! I’m very much looking forward to see how all of that plays out… and to the first time you pull up from the logo on some unsuspecting opponent!
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