Well, hello! We’re into October, which is not far off from scrimmage season… which means that we’re probably overdue for this piece. Welcome to the 2025-2026 version of “Hopes” where I break down what I’d like to see from the team during the upcoming season, including playing time and minutes distribution for our roster. As a reminder, these typically aren’t necessarily what I think will happen in terms of a direct prediction as to how we’ll use our roster. It’s, based on how I expect things to unfold/our guys to do, what would I want to see happen. Just to be perfectly clear, not pie-in-the-sky predictions based on who I’d just like to see do well… it’s given what I think the team is most likely going to need to be at its best, given the system and players, what do I think is most likely to give us the best opportunity to play our best basketball this year.
I didn’t do a lessons learned piece from last year because of the change in coaching staff. It was written with CTB as the coach in mind and was before the loss of Jalen Warley – so much of it quickly became obsolete. That being said, there were still some pretty big whiffs, some things I could have gone harder on, and some things that I think were pretty spot on. As always, we learn and move forward!
The fun part about this season is that there’s SO much new ground to cover. It’s all through the brand-new lens of Coach Ryan Odom, his staff, and the current college environment and landscape. This offseason for Cuts has been primarily spent learning the new offensive and defensive systems that Coach Odom is likely to employ, in one form or another, along with breaking down all of the core incoming transfers and international players. Odom is very flexible as a coach. Previously, we always knew we were going to be running the Pack Line defense and then likely some combination of Sides, Inside Triangle, and Flow (continuity ball screen). There may have been small variations here and there, but it was easy to think about the roster holistically and how those pieces would fit into our long-standing systems and CTB’s established preferences.
From year-to-year, and depending on his personnel, Odom will run certain things very differently. I do believe there’s generally a way he prefers to play when he has the guys to do it… and I do think this roster has those guys and skills. As a result, this piece will probably be the closest marriage of what I want and think will happen of any of the pieces (past and future) because I’m basing my own preferences on what I’ve seen Odom be effective at his prior stops. That being said, as I talk about individual player preferences for minutes, I’ll explain my assumptions and how they relate his systems.
Ideally, this piece will serve as an initial foray into how all of these pieces fit into his systems and philosophies. If I’m ever discussing an element of his preference, though, and you’re questioning what it means or where the assumptions are coming from, please feel free to check out those two previously linked pieces on his offensive and defensive systems. They go into detail on the core throughlines from his previous teams and then how he changes things up given different personnel.
As another reminder, the minute distribution below is not intended to reflect the actuals each player will end up with for entire season. There will be guys who will play in games that aren’t close and against opponents who aren’t as competitive. There will surely be the occasional spot minutes due to foul trouble, possible injury, or other atypical situations. So, when you see someone with a “0 MPG” that doesn’t literally mean they will never see the floor in most cases. These minute projections are supposed to signify usage against a difficult opponent in a regular season game that is contested until the final possession. Basically, the tightest that our rotation will ever get is what I’m projecting below; where do those 200 minutes go?
This is also a good time to add a final preface as to the impact of Coach Odom’s system. Previously, under Tony Bennett, rotations would get very tight by the end of the season – in many cases getting down to 7-8 players who saw meaningful minutes. Coach Odom regularly plays more depth. This isn’t simply to keep more players involved, it’s because his teams run so much. They push the ball in transition after every miss and even after some makes. They will often (personnel contingent) pick up full court and at least apply pressure to the ball the entire way (and I believe they will do that this season). Finally, their defensive style is to fly around and create disruption; leaning on both proactive and reactive help defense. All of these attributes require that key players get more rest and that more players get significant time. I’ll be advocating for a clean 10-man rotation this year, although I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s even a little deeper than that.
Alright, without further ado, let’s get into it!
Carter Lang (6’9″ Redshirt Sophomore, Power Forward)
0 MPG
In the past, my threshold for including someone in these write-ups was whether or not they were a scholarship player. I made an exception to write about Carter Lang last year due to the nature of him leaving a scholarship position at Vanderbilt to join our team. With the increase in scholarships from 13 to 15 for the coming season, some full, some partial, and the general increased ambiguity around roster size/roles, I am going to have to make a more ambiguous judgment call moving forward.
Lang is my cutoff judgment call this year with how deep into the roster I’ll go. As a local who previously was on scholarship at Vanderbilt, there tends to be more noise/hope around him than around most deeper bench players; with fans who were aware of him or watched him play at STAB hoping that he can carve out a role for himself. While I’m not here to say that there will never be any situations where get gets onto the floor in a meaningful moment, I am here to burst the bubble of those hopefuls just a little bit.
It’s true that Lang was a scholarship-worthy player at Vanderbilt, and even started seven games… but there was also a reason he was willing to return home as a preferred walk-on and it’s not solely the familiarity. That Vanderbilt team was not very good, it was prior to the Byington hire, and Lang did struggle metrically on the offense or defensive ends as a big who wasn’t truly imposing enough to act as a long/mobile rim protector but also as one who wasn’t going to stretch the floor (no three-point attempts). Some have the lens that he provides quality depth… but if it’s the kind of depth where you’re at a disadvantage when it’s on the floor… then you really want to stay away from having to use that depth (he does offer very good practice depth, though, which is very valuable – we’re just having a discussion around playing time).
Now, Lang has had two full off seasons since his time with the Commodores. It’s certainly possible that he’s improved his range, mobility, outside shooting… all of it. We got treated to a neat little highlight in the offseason of him luring Johann Grünloh with the shot fake and then blowing by him to the basket. And, by all accounts, the current staff does not view him through the “Preferred Walk-on” lens but, rather, another piece they can use where needed.
Where and when, though? The most common suggestion is that Lang could serve as a third Center when our two seven-footers need rest. Surely, with all of the running there will be some instances where that is needed. The problem is, in these situations, it seems much better just to slide Thijs De Ridder down to the Center position. You only lose an inch of length in so doing, actually gain some bulk and then can benefit from all of De Ridder’s professional athleticism, ball skill, and shooting. I won’t be advocating for this “small ball” lineup very often, as we’ll see later, but I do think it’s superior than playing Lang down there as you may not even be worse defensively (I’d argue you’re likely better) but it adds much more to work with offensively.
Perhaps, in a very strange and unique matchup where the opposing team has two bruising and lengthy bigs and De Ridder needs a rest (and the Centers are likely going to need to support each other’s minutes as much as they can from a fatigue standpoint), you use Lang as the PF instead of Devin Tillis? It’s plausible but I strongly doubt preferable because, while Tillis may struggle at times on the defensive end, he is used to guarding up in size and his shooting/ball skills/playmaking will likely be more helpful. In fact, in those scenarios, it’s probably an opportunity to get Tillis some more minutes where he may otherwise feel a little light.
No, the most plausible path to playing time for Lang is a situation where all of Grünloh, Onyenso, and De Ridder are unavailable and even then I think there’s a decent chance they’d turn to one of the next guys on the list instead; especially the Freshman, if he’s available.
Likely better for hometown hopefuls to embrace the positivity he brings to the roster, the quality practices he can support, and that chemistry with his former HS teammates that was evident on Proving Grounds!
Silas Barksdale (6’9″ Freshman, Power Forward)
0 MPG – Redshirt?
I follow the dreaded “R word” for many UVa fans with a question mark, because who knows what it even means to redshirt at this point? Will all players get five years of eligibility automatically at some point in the near future? If so, then he obviously should not redshirt. But, if there is a world in which he can gain an extra year of eligibility by redshirting this season then I think he would be a great candidate for it.
Let me start by saying that I’m very high on Barksdale. All accounts of his work ethic and how seriously he’s approaching his collegiate career are encouraging. In high school there were some questions around where he fit positionally; and there was conversation about him being a smaller, playmaking Center… but also one without a proven outside shot. Since then, though, he’s trimmed his frame down significantly and improved his quickness/mobility; creating the much more concrete vision of him as a lengthy, playmaking, mobile Forward down the road. Barksdale is known for his effort, his energy, his ability to handle the ball, and his skill as an incredibly gifted passer; but a known area of development within his game is that all-important three-point shot. Once again, though, early returns are that he’s been working on that aspect of his game and has already shown some improvement since stepping on Grounds.
There’s a legitimately exciting ceiling here, and I think the long-term comp might actually approximate that Jack Clark role at VCU last year (we’ll talk about him again later on). At 6’10” but with the ability to handle the ball (he’d often be the ball handler on fast breaks when it made sense) and shoot at a threatening clip from outside (34.8% his last year); Clark gave you all of the things Odom wanted offensively while also giving extra support around the rim defensively to help secure the glass and contest shots in the paint. There are many different player-profiles that Odom has used at the PF over the years, from more bruising, hustle players, to more of a 4th guard-type, to more of a pure skill/shooter with size… but this is the player profile that I believe he recruits to when he has his druthers. He can still stretch the floor, the player can still handle the ball; especially to grab-and-go after a defensive rebound (Odom’s system wants at least 1-4 to be able to push the ball as soon as they get a defensive rebound so that everyone else can just take off/fill lanes/spot up), while also supporting the chaos on the defensive end with length, mobility, verticality, etc.
Barksdale has the potential to fit that mold exactly. He just doesn’t need to do it now.
De Ridder and Tillis are more polished and experienced players. Their skill is considerably farther along. In De Ridder’s case, the athleticism is on par and the strength is superior as well (although I do think Barksdale’s upside surpasess both here).
There’s plenty of time for Silas to get reps, work on his game, and come into his own… and I think that’s what he should do. I should also note, when considering these things, I do think flight risk is worth thinking about – both how likely the player is to move on if they don’t get some run and also how impactful it will be if they do. I don’t see a huge risk here. Barksdale followed Odom to UVa likely with a pretty clear understanding that we were going to hit the portal hard for the position. He’s a top 100 prospect but one, as mentioned, with room to develop. If he doesn’t see an opportunity longer term then this could become a conversation; but I have confidence that if he followed Odom to UVa that he was buying the longer-term vision.
Martin Carrère (6’8″ Redshirt Freshman, Small Forward)
0 MPG
If there is a player who will force the rotation out to 11 guys and who plays a bigger role than expected, I believe it will be Carrère. A redshirt last season at VCU, he’s already got a year in Odom’s system on his resume. He’s done the drills, he’s got the conditioning, he’s familiar with the expectations. In fact, often people refer to Elijah Gertrude as being the player with the “most” experience on the team because he’s the only “scholarship” player who has been at UVa the two-years prior. I’d counter that Carrère actually has the most relevant experience as the only player on the roster who has played for Coach Odom already (even if not in a game)!
Where Carrère most stands to develop as a 6’8″ player weighing in at 180lbs is in the weight room with Mike Curtis. He’s supposed to be a fantastic outside shooter and the staff runs him more as a Guard than a Forward in practice; leaning into his ball skills. So, while there’s some speculation that maybe he could also see some time as a true stretch PF… it’s probably more likely as a Sam Lewis alternative that he could find his way onto the floor. With so many quality guard options though, not to mention Lewis’s presence as that potential lengthier wing-stopper option who might also be the best spot-up shooter on the team, it’s unlikely that Martin carves out a significant role for himself this year.
The best player comp for him longer term to a player under Odom’s system is probably Sean Bairstow at Utah St. that one 2022-2023 season when he shot 38.6% from deep. Bairstow was used as the true SF on the roster, playing alongside Steven Ashworth and Max Shulga. He was primarily a slasher, screener, and cutter, who could create mismatches around the rim and spot up from the corner (not a good outside shooter for his career but he had a very effective season out there to end his career with the Aggies – Carrère should be able to more effectively deliver in this way). The difference was that Bairstow, while wiry himself, had a good 25lbs on Carrère. Spend a little more time putting on frame and Martin could fill that similar mismatch creation role who provides excellent lineup length without compromising ball handling or shooting, down the road.
Chance Mallory (5’10” Freshman, PG)
10 MPG
Chance Mallory is listed as 10 inches shorter than Carrère and 6lbs heavier. I’ll let that simmer for a second when thinking about their readiness to step on the floor and deal with ACC-level physicality. He is built like a running back or a defensive back; quick but strong. Another local from STAB… but he has a top 50-60 recruiting profile. If you haven’t had the opportunity to see Chance play… you should soon; and you’re in for a treat.
Mallory previously committed to UVa prior to CTB’s retirement, decommitted afterward, and then his re-commitment was one of the first things to happen after Coach Odom was announced in the position. Chance’s game aligns so well with what Coach Odom is trying to do. He’s got incredibly deep range, which allows him to extend the defense and then drive behind them into the open space. He can beat his man off of the bounce, is strong through contact as a finisher, and has great touch around the rim with a creative floater suite. He’ll push the ball aggressively. Defensively, he’s strong and pesky at the point of attack and is actually a really good rebounder. The elephant in the room is his size. He’s probably over-listed at 5’10”, which does raise some legitimate defensive concerns with regard to being shot over – and even some offensive concerns. Chance is a great finisher; but is just now having to learn to do so against 7-footers on a regular basis.
All of that being said, Coach Odom has a storied past with regard to playing shorter PGs. We, of course, all remember the 5’8″ KJ Maura at UMBC… but not long after he had the 5’2″(!) Darnell Rogers – the shortest player ever to play D1 basketball as a starter on his roster. Both of those players were quite effective for him because they were talented offensively (none close to Chance in this regard), and because their size was minimized through defensive scheme – allowing them to be aggressive and harass on the outside while funneling drives to a crowded lane on the inside.
Not only is Chance just a much better, skilled, athletic, stronger player than either of these on both ends of the floor, but he has a better rim protection behind him to help with said funneling. While we won’t need to rely on him as a Freshman to pull heavy minutes and lead the whole show, and I don’t even think it’ll be 1-to-1 in terms of PG play when Dallin Hall is resting (we have other guys who can handle those duties when needed), I do think there will be a meaningful role for Mallory this season as a spark plug off of the bench. Instant offense that adds a completely different dynamic to how the primary ball handler on the team plays (and has to be defended). He’ll offer unique defense; the ability to pressure the ball full court, get under the opposition’s dribble. He’ll have the freedom to be physical on the ball without having to worry about getting into foul trouble.
Mallory has the ability to be the change of pace guy who completely tilts the way the game is being played on its axis. This minute projection of 10 may be low as a result, because I could certainly see some contests where he’s just red hot and giving the other team matchup issues and stays on the floor. And, while I do think he’ll be a much bigger part of our plans starting next season, I fully expect him to play meaningful minutes this season while also serving as the “break glass in case of emergency” option to really shake things up. It’s a luxury to have that kind of explosive upside on the roster but where we can dip our toe in and use him as necessary without being forced to rely on his inexperience so early in his young career.
Elijah Gertrude (6’4″ Redshirt Sophomore, Combo Guard)
10 MPG
The forgotten man! Speaking of spark plugs… there’s no player on the roster who stands to benefit more from Coach Odom’s playstyle than Elijah Gertrude. This minute share may also be slightly conservative, but it’s hard to find minutes when you have so many talented players on the roster! A lot will depend on how his injury recovers with sustained use and how it holds up to the demanding schedule of a 30+ game season. Early reports are that he looks as explosive and athletic as ever in practice, and we’ve seen some highlights of him dunking effortlessly that have been pushed to social media… but we also know that they’re being cautious with him and that he hasn’t practiced quite as much as some of the others so far.
How quickly he can ramp up to a full workload and whether he’s truly as explosive of an athlete as he was prior to his injury are my main hesitations in putting his minutes share a little higher. And, while he’s apparently spent a lot of time working on his handle and his shooting, unproven offensive skill is the other question mark when we have so many polished offensive players on the roster.
That being said, two years ago in a system in which we were encouraged to slow the pace of the game and only take the most clear-cut fast break opportunities, Gertrude was still a one-man fast break at times. The way he moves in the open floor with or without the ball makes other athletic players often look like they’re standing in molasses. He’ll constantly pressure the rim after every miss by the opposition in transition, not to mention, he’ll be crashing the glass aggressively on offense! There were so many times two seasons ago where Gertrude made something positive happen when the team was bogged down just by the nature of his hustle and athleticism. Often, it was despite our core strategy. Now, it’s going to be fully synergistic (ha, business!) with our core strategy.
So, that’s all exciting as another jolt of energy to potentially punish an opponent who we’re already wearing out. And truly, if he’s healthy, he should be able to do that at a level that none of our other players can… but the real opportunity and role I see Gertrude filling this year is as a defensive stopper. Our team is talented across the board; and I think we have some capable defenders on the roster, but I imagine the biggest weakness among our core rotation is going to be with perimeter defense. No, I don’t think we’ll be a sieve, and I think a player like Jacari White is likely being underrated as a defender and a player like Sam Lewis has great potential in that area… but other than Lewis if he really buys in and maxes out, there aren’t any other lock down defenders who you just put in the game if you want to make life hard on the hottest opposing guard. I believe that Eli can be that. He’ll be a nightmare to take off of the dribble, will contest shots with great verticality, will help on the glass, and will maximize our ability to swarm/create chaos in rotations and in jumping passing lanes. I can also foresee blocks at the rim when he crashes down from the perimeter playing help defense, creating pick-6s the other way on lazy passes, and other splash plays – but the way he earns his minutes and the way this number could be higher, in my opinion, ties most closely with his ability to taken an opposing guard out of their offensive game.
I really hope there are no setbacks this year. Watching Gertrude in the small glimpses we had two years ago was an absolute treat (he should have gotten so many more minutes after they broke his redshirt), and I’m really excited to see what that looks like in a system that so complements his abilities.
Devin Tillis (6’7″ 5th Year Senior, Power Forward)
13 MPG
This might raise some eyebrows from the “Devin Tillis is an underrated baller” crowd, but it’s less of an indictment of Tillis and more of an affirmation of our other options. Tillis was the best, or second best depending on the day, player on a very good UC Irvine team that was a missed layup away from winning the NIT last year. He brings with him a ton of skill and a ton of basketball savvy.
The most relevant of these skills are his excellent outside shooting, from well-beyond the arc as well, fantastic court vision and passing, and a mid-post game that can create some issues, especially for similarly sized opponents or switch mismatches. There are some questions as to whether the full complement of his offensive skillset will translate to this level, especially around the basket. Tillis is a rare frontcourt player on a major conference team who plays below the rim; but there isn’t much question that he should find a way to be a strong contributor one way or another on the offensive end of the floor.
The problem is on the defensive end. Tillis is an under-athletic and under-sized 4 who is good enough at playing with physicality – think of that old-man defensive game – but who isn’t going to offer you any rim protection and who isn’t quick (struggles with change of direction and close outs when away from the hoop). Last season, he often relied on his 7-foot partner in crime in the frontcourt to help him contest things at the rim and secure the glass, which masked some sins effectively; especially at the Big West level of play. This year, he should have even better protection in the frontcourt between Onyenso and Grünloh. It will be harder to mask defensive issues consistently at this level, but we should probably be able to get by, especially if we pair him with Ugo….
But why settle for getting by when we have another player, in Thijs De Ridder, who offers just as much offensive skill (if not more), but who also brings high-quality athleticism with him to the position? Much of the time when weighing playing time between two quality players, there are tradeoffs to each and you might prioritize certain skills over others with what your team needs. De Ridder really represents only upside here. Perhaps 2-3 percentage points in fewer three-pointers made, but a complete and proven offensive game that has been showcased in the second best professional league in the world, and a fantastic defensive game to boot that turns a question mark into a strength. He shouldn’t need to be supported by the Centers, he should be able to help them hold down the fort as well!
Of course, the pace at which we play and the energy required on both ends will be a lot for a player like De Ridder who is used to larger rotations and more platoon efforts; so there’s still a significant chunk of time Tillis will be needed to come in and contribute. I just think his playing time will, and should, be mostly one-to-one with De Ridder at the PF. We’re going to want Thijs out there for as long as he has the stamina to be playing at his best. A 27-13 minute distribution feels like a good balance, to me.
Another counter-point I’d like to tackle here is the idea that Tillis could share the floor with De Ridder at times instead of playing a Center. A true “Small Ball” lineup, if you will, where all five of our players could shoot. Tony Bennett would be proud, but I don’t expect to see this much; with really the only exception being that both Centers are completely gassed or are, themselves, in foul trouble. Why not? My answer is twofold:
For one, the entire structure of Coach Odom’s defensive system is to keep a rim protecting Center around the lane to contest anything that funnels there. He almost always has his Centers play drop coverage on pick and rolls; choosing to keep them around the rim rather than getting them extended. His half-court defensive system is high pressure. It’s not really a trapping or “Havoc” style system; but it is designed around the on-ball defender playing incredibly aggressively, attempting to hound/disrupt the ball handler. Off the ball, players are aggressive in passing lanes, they’re aggressive (freelancing at times, even) with their rotations trying to make a play on the ball and to proactively impact what the offense is doing. All of this is possible because of the Center staying home around the basket and cleaning up any mistakes or openings that come from a result in the defensive pressure. In fact, when given the opportunity, Odom prefers to add more length, disruption, athleticism, and shot blocking to the PF position rather than leaning small. I give you last year as evidence of this. Jack Clark was a perfect candidate to eat small-ball Center minutes because, even though he was slight, at 6’10” and with good leaping ability, he could have held up decently in there. And yet, despite having access to Clark, there were fewer than 5 minutes per game on average where one of VCU’s two Centers (Luke Bamgboye and Christian Fermin) weren’t on the floor. The reason being, Odom’s systems WANT a true Center out there. If they can shoot, great, but they don’t have to be able to do so (we can talk about the offense later). What they do need to be able to do is protect the rim. When given the option, Odom prefers to have a second PF presence out there who can offer as much length and athleticism around the rim as well; as long as he’s not compromising his shooting/playmaking requirements from the 4. De Ridder is a very nice complementary defensive piece at the PF, but he doesn’t offer the rim protection (or rim-running, either, to the same degree) that Odom covets from his Centers; even worse if attempted to be backed up by Tillis. Small ball is not seen as desirable in this new era unless it’s a personnel necessity – which it isn’t on this roster.
Secondly, one of the big benefits of playing small ball is putting five shooters on the floor and spacing out a defense. Odom doesn’t prioritize that over rim protection anyway… but with Johann Grünloh on the roster, it’s even less of a priority. Grünloh’s outside shooting should give us the ability to get into the 5-out stuff if we want (he’ll still function as a rim-running screener often, as well) without compromising (much) defensively. If Johann is playing around half of the game, that’s more than enough time to rock that package and use some of the more 4-around-1 packages when Ugo is on the floor.
The frontcourt is just too deep with quality players. Before the signing of De Ridder, PF was our biggest question mark and position of need. The Devin Tillis signing gave us a quality dude who has a good deal of experience and should be a stable presence back there – but now I think he’s slotted into the role perfectly suited for him at this level; high-quality depth coming off of the bench and hopefully knocking down a few threes for you in the process while connecting the offense.
Johann Grünloh (7’0″ Freshman, Center)
19 MPG
Given how I’ve talked about him, you might be surprised to see Grünloh next on this list. I really think it will basically be an even timeshare with Ugonna Onyenso, though. Ideally, to me (and I believe to Odom), there will be exactly one of them on the floor at all times. There might be an exception here or there where we play neither (likely foul trouble issues or extremely odd matchup considerations), and I doubt we’ll play both much, either.
It’s just really hard for 7-footers to get up and down the floor as quickly and often as Coach Odom expects; and I think we’re going to want to be rotating through both as much as possible to keep them fresh. I expect there will be plenty of games where the minutes distribution goes either way at the Center position for a variety of reasons; but I firmly suspect they will both see a lot of time and this will be a strength of ours this coming season.
So, why did I give the slight nod to Onyenso over Johann as the starter? Grünloh likely has more upside with his skill and eye-hand coordination to complement his length. He’s good at running the open floor, is an effortless dunker, a confident finisher around the rim, and has that afore-mentioned ability to stretch the floor. The reason is that Grünloh is more of a finesse player and does concede some strength at times on the interior. He’s got good straight-line speed but isn’t always the quickest laterally. He is a good, but not great, defensive rebounder; sometimes getting overpowered on the glass. He’s used to playing against physical players in the Bundesliga and in international club play; but grinding against the strength in major conference basketball play over the course of a season could still prove to be a slight adjustment. I don’t say any of this because I think Grünloh will struggle at this level. He may need to refine his approach at first, but I think he’ll do quite well. It’s just that; I don’t think this team is going to struggle to score the ball… like, at all. There are too many knock down shooters, too many guys who can create their own shots, the system plays to most of their strengths. I’ve scoured Odom’s offense… and whether or not the Center can step outside and knock down a three doesn’t really impact its efficacy that much. On the flip side, I think it will be much more common that we struggle to get a stop than we struggle to get a bucket. And, in that case, it’s going to benefit us to have our strongest, most imposing defensive presence on the interior to anchor everything.
There are good arguments either way, and I think one might be tempted to make the case that our highest upside lineup is one that includes Grünloh’s offensive ability with him playing at his best on defense. Perhaps having him coming off of the bench early will give way to him starting later in the season? I don’t think there’s much to go after or debunk with those opinions. It’s absolutely going to be true that there are games in which he is part of our best lineup for that game…. I just think that the biggest need on the roster, most commonly, is going to be having that absolute dominant defensive presence back there.
We’ll see, but I’m very excited for our frontcourt pairing and I’m even more excited that we could get up to three more years (although I doubt that many, more than one would be great) of Grünloh in the Blue and Orange! The man has, literally, been a professional.
Sam Lewis (6’7″ Junior, Small Forward)
22 MPG
I came really close to putting Sam Lewis in the starting lineup; and do have his minutes as basically interchangeable with Jacari White. The slight nod being that Jacari might have the ability to run point some, if needed, and offers more positional versatility, where you’re not going to want Lewis to ever be the primary (or likely secondary) ball handler in a lineup.
That being said, if Lewis’s play hits his ceiling, especially on the defensive side of the ball, he could be the single most important player on the roster toward swinging our outcomes in a positive direction. He’s really the only “wing” on the roster in a true sense. He’s got the size and the length to matchup with big guards or overpower smaller ones, while also being really good in the open floor and oh, by the way, being one of the best spot-up shooters in the game. He’s not an athlete with the same level of twitchy quickness or vertical explosiveness as an Elijah Gertrude, but he is very athletic. Fast in the open floor. Good fluidity of movement. Strong. He can finish through contact.
Odom’s offenses often have shooters in the corners and then work a three-man game in the middle of the floor. Most of the time, Lewis will represent a corner three option who you simply cannot leave. He’ll be a menace if unleashed to crash the offensive glass, and I can see some pick and pop options for him with a lot of offensive wrinkles and actions as well. He’d be a perfect one to take advantage of some of the off-ball screening actions – there’s just a lot you can do with him as either a decoy or as an absolutely elite conversion point.
The only reason I’m uncomfortable projecting him for higher minutes is because he doesn’t really fit into that three interchangeable guard mold where any can get the ball in isolation and equally be able to take their man off the bounce when they need to from a standstill. Lewis was a nice downhill finisher and slasher when he got momentum; but he didn’t often just beat guys off of the bounce in isolation and too often relied on the midrange pull up. Additionally, his defensive effort and, especially, alertness, was incredibly inconsistent on a bad (and small) defensive team in Toledo. How instilled are those habits or how much were they a result of being in some uncompetitive games with a team who did not, let’s say, bring that defensive urgency?
Here’s the rub, though… his defense could also be a huge key for us this year. Despite his inconsistency in his effort and mental approach, there were lots of times on tape when he was dialed-in and defending with a high urgency. In those instances, I thought that Lewis was more than capable as a defender; in fact, I really liked his ability to slide and bother his opposition when on the ball, and he had some eye-popping moments where he was able to use his length and closing speed to get into a passing lane and turn that into an opportunity the other way. You wouldn’t have anticipated it if you watched 80-90% of his minutes – but in some of those high-leverage moments he put some smothering defense on tape!
If Odom can get him to buy into the defensive concept and get Lewis to play with that same level of urgency all of the time (especially if he’s not having to log as many minutes as he did in Toledo), that would be huge. In fact, despite all of my side comments about the potential to struggle with our perimeter defense at times, I think there’s a world in which Lewis and Gertrude (along with maybe White or even Chance) offer you some really oppressive and disruptive defensive lineups.
Whether he’s the first guard off of the bench or earns a starting spot, I want Sam Lewis to be playing over half of the game for us and believe that we’re going to be looking back on this offseason and chuckling at how his signing was, comparatively, slept on… and we’ll still (hopefully) have another year of him to come!
Ugonna Onyenso (7’0″ Senior, Center)
21 MPG – Starter
When I was watching Onyenso play defense, the one thing that stood out to me that I wasn’t expecting was how strongly he played. He single-handedly stood up to Hunter Dickinson – the 7’2″, 265lb Center for Kansas – where his team had been sending countless (ineffective) doubles previously. His fronting of the post was terrifying… basically enveloped huge dudes and didn’t offer a place to pass the ball. He held up to contact from would-be offensive rebounds with ease. Frankly, on the defensive side of the ball, he was the big and athletic dude that you put in there to give the opposition’s big and athletic dude fits!
With Kentucky for two seasons prior to going to KSU, he was a starter in his Sophomore year for the (blue) Wildcats. His block rate that season was the highest of ALL TIME in that storied program’s history. For context, Anthony Davis, widely thought of as one of the best defensive bigs in college basketball history was number two on that list. College basketball reference has Onyenso’s block rate in his Sophomore season at 15.1% vs. Davis’s best season of 13.7%.
Onyenso is just one basketball season removed from truly dominant rim protection.
So, what happened at Kansas State? That’s much too long of a topic for this piece but, needless to say, he didn’t really get much of an opportunity after Jerome Tang spent his NIL savings on Coleman Hawkins as a stretch 5; relegating Onyenso to just 11 minutes per game (down from almost 19 at Kentucky). The long and the short of it is that Kansas State didn’t really have a plan for how to use him effectively with the rest of their roster and things went off the rails a bit. That being said, while he wasn’t the dominant force of defensive nature he showed in Lexington, he still put some really solid defensive moments on tape and I’m going to be very surprised if he doesn’t revert much closer to his Kentucky form in this system and with this opportunity in playing time.
The sneaky element to all of this is that UVa’s staff have been downright effusive about Ugo all offseason; talking about how much more developed his offense is than expected and how he’s a much better shooter than they realized. His FT shooting % did skyrocket between year 2 and 3… but there just wasn’t the volume at the stripe nor anything on tape that would have tipped this as being a reliable development. Apparently, he’s even hit a few threes in practice! Now, while I’m not counting on that in game situations – we’re not going to be a 5-out style offense with him on the floor – I do think he’ll knock down a jumper here or there when left completely alone.
None of that really matters, though. While Odom’s offensive systems can certainly take advantage of having five outside shooters on the floor at any moment, more often than not he’s played with just 4. The Center is truly different in his offense; used primarily as a screener, rim runner, and offensive rebounder (sometimes post up presence but Ugo won’t be used there often) around which the other four players revolve. Ugo is very good at all of those things. His range on lobs is fantastic and his presence around the rim applies constant pressure such that opposing Centers have to stay close. It’s true that he’s not the kind of player you’re going to throw the ball into the post to and have him create his own offense… but he really doesn’t have to be for the offense to be good! I should also add that he’s very good at sprinting the floor to the rim in transition and offering his team an easy bucket if the defense is anything less than alert. The transition game was also something Kentucky loved when he was there, and he has a lot of experience getting up and down.
I just think it’s going to be so valuable to have that guy back there on defense who can cover for so many mistakes; especially with a new team gelling together. I really do think Ugo is going to play the safety net role incredibly well and how good at it he’ll be is under-appreciated at the moment.
But, I think the downright misunderstanding at the moment is the idea that he’s going to hold our offense back and that we need to get Grünloh on the floor to keep it from struggling. While it’s possible that Johann will be the cherry on top on that end at times, I believe that Ugo will play his role on that end very well also; acting more as an enabler for the other four guys around him to get their looks by getting them open on a screen and forcing a hard recovery from the opposition because it’ll be the easiest two points of the game if they don’t.
This is me, thrilled, because I’m excited about both of our Center options and actually feel like we’re going to be committed to using them in ways that suit their strengths this season! But I do give the slight nod to Ugo as the starter because I believe his defense will be just what this roster needs without limiting us in other ways.
Jacari White (6’3″ Senior, Shooting Guard)
23 MPG – Starter
Let me just say that I’m very high on the Jacari White train. People are expecting Thomas to be the scorer, Hall to be the PG, there’s excitement for the Euros and there’s mounting enthusiasm for Lewis’s role and his frame. I echo all of those things, but please don’t sleep on Jacari! What White offers, especially when he’s on the floor with Hall and Thomas, is positional interchangeability 1-3. Any of those guys can get the ball at the end of the shot clock and have the ability to create something – so it doesn’t really matter where you are within the flow of hot potato in the offense when they’re all on the floor. Any of those guys could also probably be assigned to cover any guard on the other team (White being the quickest and likely most disruptive of the three). Any of them would be fine catching a kick out beyond the arc, pulling up from deep off of the dribble. Point being, if we’re running through a Ryan Odom offensive set; you don’t need any of those guards to be playing any one specific role – they can all take whichever one makes the most sense at the time the play is happening.
While he’s not as strong as Malik Thomas, there’s actually a ton of similarity in how they play offense. The body control, the ability to pull up off of the dribble and get great balance on their jumper, the creative finishing around the hoop. Jacari is smaller but a little more athletic. I don’t think he’ll need to often, but he could absolutely play PG if called on; and I could see some lineups with he, Thomas and Lewis on the floor as kind of an ultra-shooting look, or lineups with he, Gertrude, and Lewis on the floor as probably our best defensive trio on the perimeter.
The strengths of his game are probably being overshadowed a bit by the talent around him. He isn’t likely going to be the best at anything… but he’s also probably the most complete player with the fewest weaknesses of anyone in our backcourt. He’s just that well-rounded guy who does everything pretty well and some things very well. I expect there are going to be more games than most anticipate where he’ll lead the team in scoring. I expect there are going to be times where Thomas and De Ridder defer to White because he’s hot or got the better matchup to create something in a big moment. I also expect he’s going to adjust to moving up in quality of play very well.
As meaningful games start, we’ll get a little bit more information about how our guards play together and what rotations make sense. It’s possible it will make more sense to start the game with Lewis and then to turn to Jacari for a pop off of the bench because he could probably enter for any of the three guards at that point. But, at least the way I’m thinking about it now, I think it makes most sense to sort of blur the lines into positionless basketball 1-3 with Jacari in the starting lineup and then to start subbing in to answer specific needs or questions posed by the opposition. Either way, whether he’s a 6th man extra-ordinaire or a starter who helps to confuse where our attack is coming from, there’s going to be a significant role for Jacari in our backcourt this season!
Dallin Hall (6’4″ Senior, Point Guard)
25 MPG – Starter
I’ve made the case to myself that this is a low minutes estimate… and I’ve made one that this is high. Common sense says that as our lone veteran true PG, Dallin Hall should be closer to the 30-minute mark. Completely fair. He’s a very good PG who, aside from Onyenso, has previously played on the best college team and regularly against the best competition of any domestic players on the roster. He’s battle tested, controls the game well, facilitates incredibly well, plays under control, is an underrated athlete, is strong, can get to the rim, rebounds well… all of those Point Guardy things you want your Senior leader to have.
The thing is… I just think there are a lot of guys on this roster who are also good with the ball in their hands. Hall is a very good outside shooter but, on this roster, aside from Gertrude and the Centers, he’s probably the least reliable… and his free throw rate (67% last year, 64% for his career) is mind-bogglingly low for a good shooter otherwise. It’s like the more he thinks, the worse he is and the more he reacts, the better he is. I also think that, while he’s a pretty good defender who can certainly be a plus defender in the right matchups; he’s also probably one of the weaker defenders on the roster we could put out there for the type of high-pressure, aggressive defense we’re trying to create.
I write that above and acknowledge how it sounds – he’s still good at all of those things (except FT shooting)! I still have him slotted at 25 minutes per game; the third highest on the team as a result. My point is more, I don’t think he should be thought of as indispensable out there. There will be games where Chance is hot, there could be games when either Thomas or White are good options out there because we just don’t want to get either of them or Lewis off the floor… and that will be just fine. There may even be times where we play Gertrude at point to try to be even more aggressive on both ends….
Point being, I don’t think we’re looking at (nor should we) a situation like we’re used to seeing where we play our starting PG as many minutes as we can without them collapsing. The best versions of this team will probably have Dallin Hall running the point in most situations… but we should have a lot of flexibility in how we use our 6-man guard rotation that involves keeping Hall rested and fresh as well.
Thijs De Ridder (6’8″ Junior, Power Forward)
27 MPG – Starter
I believe that Thijs De Ridder will be our best player this coming season; but that doesn’t mean he will get the most minutes. We just run so much. He’s used to platooning. There’s a capable player behind him on the depth chart in Tillis who might see the game from a different angle sometimes. 27-minutes is more than enough time to leave his mark on a game throughout the season, with the potential to flex up over the 30-minute mark in the most competitive circumstances.
I don’t think I’ve been this fired up for an incoming UVa player, though. New rules and eligibility driving it, to be sure, but this is a player old enough to be graduating who is, literally, a professional with multiple seasons in the second-best domestic league in the world under his belt! He was the most efficient player on a team that won the FIBA Europe Cup! Projections to college are often a crap shoot… but this guy is just too good to not… well, be really good!
He can play inside or outside; with a nifty back-to-the-basket game, great touch around the rim, excellent outside and midrange shooting. He gets to his spots off of the bounce and is a good slasher. He finishes with power and runs the floor well. He’s a good passer with good vision and technical execution. All in all, he’s just a physical guy who plays with a lot of strength, has a great motor, and sometimes just bullies his opponent (and these are grown professional men). Defensively, he should pair very well with either Center as someone who can slide his feet on the wing with most any other PF, who can mix it up on the glass on both ends, and someone who can crash down from help position and make something positive happen. Particularly, the duo of Onyenso and De Ridder should be incredibly effective rebounding on either end. It’s hard to describe if you haven’t watched him; but he plays with both control and violence.
I love the flexibility Thijs offers in the Odom system. You can really put him in anywhere, although I don’t expect he’ll be the primary ballhandler often – I could see them giving him some point-forward opportunities in the right matchup. He can serve that Taylor Funk role from Odom’s Utah State days as the skilled PF who runs a lot of pick and pop two and three-man screening actions. You can confidently put him in the shooter’s corner if you’re working on other matchups. You can make the defense worried about the Center’s rim running and surprise with De Ridder in that capacity. But, also, he should be our best isolation player (by a long shot) on the interior. I think there’s a lot we could do while pairing him with Grünloh where Johann commands some attention as a pick and pop guy and we use that to isolate De Ridder with his man on the block and no help nearby. There’s the potential to play high/low with Onyenso on the opposite block and De Ridder in isolation around the elbow with the ability to face up and shoot or drive his man with a teammate in great rebounding position/as a lob threat if the help comes.
On any given night, De Ridder can be the primary point of attack. That will be a viable strategy much of the time and he can get you that offense in a variety of ways against different kinds of matchups. But, what I think makes him such a good fit on this team is that he won’t need to score to be impactful for us, either. All of the hustle plays that you expect from your role players; effort on the glass, getting after loose balls, finding the open shooter on the perimeter, flying around on defense (some of his closeouts are just a thing of beauty); you’re getting those in the package too. I’m sure there will be games where Malik Thomas, Jacari White, even Sam Lewis go off on the scoreboard and De Ridder still feels like our best player who left the greatest mark on the game because he was involved in so many different ways. My theory is that De Ridder will be called on to score more the harder the defensive competition is; because he’s just so efficient. The games it comes easier for others, he might not need to as much.
Make no mistake, though, Thijs guy significantly raises our ceiling as a team and is the biggest reason that I personally believe most preseason projections are too conservative on our Hoos. Not that preseason rankings are ever creed (Duke would have won the ACC every year CTB did if they were) – but these feel more off base than normal to me because many were already baked before this late addition and then didn’t really change. If you notice a pretty big disconnect between the more national types and those more plugged in, it’s likely that the latter have processed De Ridder’s addition.
Malik Thomas (6’5″ 5th Year Senior, Combo Guard)
30 MPG – Starter
If Jacari White signing with us after not having us in his top 5 was the first sign that something was much different with our NIL game this offseason, Malik Thomas’s signing (especially when Gonzaga had been heavily involved) was the (first) big neon flashing one. Thomas led the WCC in scoring last season and was tied for second in steals. He was a true three-level scorer who could knock down the open look from the spot up and off the bounce, could get to a midrange pull up, get all the way to the hoop, and could even post up undersized players (he’s listed at 6’5″… reads more like 6’4″, but is very strong and physical). Additionally, his ability to get to the line was a huge asset; he’s got a knack for drawing contact and is a fantastic FT shooter. This keeps his scoring baseline high even in the rare instances when he’s having an off shooting night – he’ll still get those looks from the charity stripe. He’ll be called on likely to be the lead scorer for us at volume, although he shouldn’t have to shoulder as much of the burden as he did at San Francisco.
This wasn’t just a situation where he feasted on poor opponents, either. Thomas just absolutely went off to close the season last year – putting up 27 points against Gonzaga in the WCC Semi finals, before scoring 21 and 36 respectively in the first two rounds of the NIT. He had 22 against Boise St., 25 against Memphis, 34 against Santa Clara (at top 60 team last year, per Kenpom)… you get it; the guy can fill it up which he has shown against quality college teams with a worse supporting cast than he’ll have at UVa. In addition to being so proven at scoring the ball in such a variety of ways, though, I’ve also got Thomas as the lead minutes-getter because he’s the best suited of our guards to play any of the three guard positions.
Thomas acted as the back-up PG quite often at San Francisco, and although he was still more scoring-focused in that role; he withstood pressure well. He has made comments this offseason about working to facilitate more and take on more non-scoring responsibilities to help the team win games. He’s most natural at SG, but he’s got the strength to match up with many SFs which he did quite often in San Francisco; guarding the wing. In fact, it was more often the quick-twitch, smaller guards who gave him bigger issues that that bigger wings (he covered up to 6’8″ players, at times, effectively). As a result of this versatility, there’s really never going to be a combination of any of the other two of our guards on the floor where Thomas will feel miscast.
That being said, we’ve got a deep group and 10 minutes of rest to keep him fresh will be well-served… but rest isn’t the only reason I didn’t go above 30 minutes for my ideal projection. As skilled as Thomas is offensively; he’s not among our best three defensive guards. On ball he was over-aggressive at times, taking too many chances lunging at the ball and allowing himself to get beaten by quickness in the process. Away from the ball, he was overly focused on ball denial to his man, to the point where he would often be unaware of the play unfolding around him (and sometimes where he’d get beaten back door). He was strong on the ball and a good rebounder; but San Francisco would often sub him out of the game on defense and put him back in on offense at the end of close contests.
Now, while I will say that I expect this to still be the weakest part of his game, and I also expect there will still be times we pull him out when we need a defensive stop; I do think that Odom’s scheme accentuates his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. For one, the interchangeability of our guards (and the type of players he can defend) will likely allow us to place him on the opposition’s weakest scorer 1-3 (or 2-3 if he’s playing with Chance). Secondly, Odom is going to require sound defense; but Thomas’s willingness to try to pressure the ball and take risks will fit well into the pressure system we’re going to play. I expect Thomas’s high steal rate will benefit from the ability to attack on defense. Thirdly, the combination of Onyenso and Grünloh playing drop coverage and protecting the rim will provide a safety net that should mitigate some of the opportunities created for the opposition by Thomas’s (and the whole team’s) aggression. San Francisco did not offer him the same luxury and most defensive mistakes or lapses were punished with easy baskets around the rim.
Basically, I don’t think Thomas’s defense is ever going to be considered an area of strength for us this season, but I do think that we’re well-positioned to both get the most out of his defensive strengths and minimize his defensive vulnerabilities. Additionally, whatever vulnerabilities remain should be far outweighed by his offensive contributions. This isn’t going to be a situation, I don’t believe, where a team can or will just try to attack Thomas when he’s on the floor as like a focused strategy. The fall off in his defensive quality isn’t like that. But, if they do, we should be able to move him around some and change his cover responsibility. This is also where a player like Elijah Gertrude could find a defensive role as an answer to a question.
I’m really excited to see what Thomas does this season. He should be the second most important player on the roster. He’s the guy who will provide a baseline for our scoring and who we should be able to turn to create something against most opponents when we need a bucket. He’s the guy we’ll want taking the clutch shot or free throws at the end of a game (although there are a lot of guys on this roster I’m comfortable with taking a final shot). I can’t imagine too many defenses or game situations (if any) where Malik Thomas isn’t going to be a fantastic answer and give us options in how we can attack!
In Conclusion
Optimism often runs rampant prior to a new season; new players and new possibilities get the imagination churning. In this case, I think it’s especially true because the promise of what Odom, his system, and his roster management approach offer feels like a direct contrast/response to where the program stood previously and the cracks in the armor that had been appearing. But in this case, I think the optimism is well-justified and is probably even a little overly cautious at the moment.
This is a talented group of players who fit very well into the idealized version of what Coach Odom likes to run. The pieces all make sense together, there’s a high level of athleticism and playmaking, and almost everyone on the roster can really shoot the lights out of the ball. Imagine last year’s VCU team but with 6-7% better outside shooting as a team, better (and stronger) interior defense, and more reliable inside scoring. That team would be really good – and I think that’s a very realistic vision for what this team can be.
We’re exactly a month away from real action and scrimmages are coming this month! Talk soon!
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