I pondered what I was going to do for this one because it’s another game against one of the worst teams in college basketball… after having just done well against two real tests. And we played… completely dominantly at times and pretty poorly at others. I do think the team has a potential concern keeping their concentration, at times, and staying fully locked in when it’s goa a huge lead. That being said, I’m not going to sit here and wring my hands about a 24-point win when we’ve clearly shown we can also blow the doors off of better teams.
This game doesn’t really tell me much about how we’ll do against that next level of talent nor was there a ton more to cover thematically that we haven’t tackled recently. It was a bit of a disappointing offensive rebounding performance and a bit disappointing on defense… but I think some of that is also engagement once they got out to a big lead before the break. We did keep the soft hedge in our defensive repertoire in this one, which was marginally surprising as I expected we’d revert back; so it does seem like they aren’t happy with straight drop coverage all of the time.
That’s something we can explore in a different contest. What I’ve decided to do with this one prior to our break is a quick check-in with each of our core 9 players, talk about what their role is shaping up to be so far vs. what it could ideally be, and how they’re doing compared to my pre-season expectations. I’ll include a clip or two from each that exemplifies what I’m talking about with each.
Let’s go ahead and jump in, and I’m going to kind of go through in order of how much a player has exceeded my preseason expectations, or not. The more positive compared to my expectations, the earlier they’ll appear on the list – which is completely subjective and just based on where my own head was prior to the season:
Chance Mallory
Ah, Chance. I remember, prior to the season, thinking that I was making a somewhat controversial take that he’d have a good 10-15 minutes in him. Fast-forward, and you could make a case that he’s our most important Guard. Many would. I probably would. As it stands, he’s playing about 24mpg; which really is kind of perfect. Because he’s such a fan favorite and because of his clear impact when he hits the court (and because of how much we’ve used our PGs under our previous coaching staff), the temptation is going to be to call for him to start getting a lot more minutes. I think that’s a mistake, at least this season.
Our depth is so good and he plays with such energy that it’s essential to keep him fresh. Bringing him first off of the bench has been a great way to inject a bolt of lightning into the game; changing the pace from what the opposition has been facing. Mallory brings with him the most explosive quickness, but also good strength and skill. He primarily plays on the ball, and likes to be ball-dominant, but can pair with anyone and allow anyone else to bring the ball up the floor due to his immaculate range and quick release. He’s been a creative finisher and has done well to adjust his playstyle to balance looking for his own offense and involving those around him. Most valuable, even, has been his incredible talent for drawing fouls and getting to the FT line, while shooting 80% doing so. He plays the game with a maturity and confidence that goes beyond his years.
On defense, he holds up really well at the point of attack, has a nose for the ball, harasses opposing players while taking chances trying to get steals, and rebounds exceptionally well. We’ve yet to see teams really go at him with intention or try to post him up like you often see with smaller guards (and saw all of the time with Clark back in the day). This is, in large part, due to his strength and physicality, and he’s even gotten a block while contesting a corner three.
The good news is that, despite his efficiency and talent, there’s still many ways he can grow. We’ve seen a few turnovers where he’s sped himself up trying to do just a bit too much. On defense, his biggest struggle is getting back into the plays to contest midrange jumpers if he can’t get over the initial ball screen. That’s where we’ve most seen his size come into play as he can’t really close and feel intrusive and those jumpers feel more open. That being said, if you’ve read my stuff in the past, you know I’m often hard on under-sized players because there’s often hidden ways in which it’s easier for opponents to play against them (and ways in which they struggle).
I don’t have that opinion on Chance – it’s almost all upside here. Let’s take a look at a couple of ways in which he impacts the game through two clips. In this first one, below, he gets the ball after we force a turnover with our guys pushing up in transition. Watch the quickness of the pace and the tightness of the handle. The quick behind-the-back dribble without breaking stride near mid-court jukes and spins his defender around, leaving him trying to recover and get in better defensive position from there. Chance doesn’t simply use that advantage to cross the timeline, he presses it all the way to the free throw line, drawing the defense in on him. Because of that, when Tillis catches the kick out, he’s open enough that he should probably shoot that three – and that’s all just from Mallory playing at full speed. Instead, Tillis defers and passes the ball to the corner, screens, and posts up in the mid-post. This is something Devin loves to do, especially against under-sized teams like UMES. This, in turn, draws the defense to him, though, and now he can swing a cross-court pass over to Mallory who easily and quickly buries the catch and shoot.
I chose that clip because it’s a great example at both the pressure he can put on a defense with his handle and the opportunities he can create for others without being any less of a threat when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands. That’s not something we’ve been able to say of any of our PGs since Ty Jerome; that they were just as much of a threat when they aren’t handling the ball as when they are.
And then this next one, below, is just a great example of his hustle and opportunism. He swipes the inbound pass such that the cameraman can’t even catch it, makes the layup… and then steals the ball again immediately and almost converts that.
How many plays similar to this have we seen from him already this year? It just kind of stacks explosive points in a short time but also forces the opposition to always be on their toes.
So… yeah. If we get four years of Mallory, which I’m more optimistic about than anyone in a while… it’s going to be crazy to see what he’s doing as an upperclassman… because it’s already crazy to see what he’s doing now. I think he’ll be one of the five players we close most games with and turn to in clutch moments; but I still like around where he is in playing time. His emergence has made Thomas having a harder adjustment and Gertrude not yet being able to crack the core lineup far less painful. In actuality, he plays a lot like Thomas just with difference attributes. But while Thomas, who we’ll talk about, is trying to figure out and adjust to his role, Mallory seems to have found that balance pretty naturally. Possibly, because he didn’t have the same expectations on his shoulders.
Sam Lewis
So far, Sam Lewis has been the version of himself of which I imagined he was capable, but didn’t fully expect. This is especially notable after he seemed a little lost and tentative in the two preseason scrimmages. There were some wondering why he was starting. While I’d actually thought Jacari White would start prior to the season, I wrote at the time to be patient with Lewis because of his talent and how well his skillset aligns with what this team needs.
That being said, I still raised some concerns about his defensive intensity, especially away from the ball, before the season, and questioned how much he’d be able to put the ball on the ground outside of transition. All of this, while still noting his incredible upside as a 6’7″ athletic wing who can shoot the lights out of the ball, slash, and has the potential to be an impactful defender with length.
Lewis has taken all of those skills and gradually been building on them over the span of the year to the point where he’s farther along than I’d expected at this point. This is maybe where I’d hoped Senior Sam Lewis would be… now I’m going to have to raise that bar! Not only has he approximated his great shooting from deep last year (40% from three vs. 44%), but he’s shooting better from the floor, has been locked in defensively with length, has helped us substantially on the glass at both ends, and has been more effective off of the bounce and creating for himself and others.
Here’s a good look at him being alert and engaged throughout a defensive possession (unlike often last year), in good defensive positioning throughout, goes and gets the rebound, and then pushes himself in transition. This is a really nice stutter cross-over and he finishes with length and control, as well.
And then here’s one I absolutely love. Hall attempts to hit him as a trailer for three but doesn’t sense the defender and turns it over. Lewis hustles back, times his jump and affects the shot so much that it doesn’t hit the rim. Then, he sprints back full court the other way, beats all but one defender, and Eurosteps his way for a clean finish at the rim!
Like, if I’m Ryan Odom, I’m so proud of Lewis’s effort and result on this play; turning what could have been a momentum-killing negative into an over-whelming positive just by ability and effort. I could show you a handful of clips from last season where, in a similar situation, Lewis gave minimal effort to sprint back on defense. Whether it’s coaching, teammates, being on a competitive team, self-motivation… whatever it is; Sam Lewis is playing with effort all of the time and I am so here for it.
Both of the clips I pulled focused on him in the open floor, because I love that element of his game, and highlighted his increased effort on the defensive end, because that was a concern. He does so many little things for us, though, from good passing and unselfish ball-movement, some nice drives and mid-range shots, of course his outside shooting, really helps our rebounding and is really our only guard who can defend with length and athleticism.
At about 23 minutes per game this year, that number is a little misleading as he’s averaged 26 mpg starting with the Northwestern game and more recently, and just 18.5mph prior to that. His more recent trending is exactly where I’d want to see him; and it’s telling that his time has actually gone up, not declined since the return of Devin Tillis.
Devin Tillis
I want to reiterate here that this is compared to my preseason expectations; this isn’t a valuable player rankings (and he wouldn’t be ahead of some of those lower on this list). Tillis was my worry coming into the year; that he might take too many of Thijs De Ridder’s minutes or that we might be tempted to play small ball with him at the PF and De Ridder at the Center. We’ve been burned too many times by this kind of strategy in recent years.
Never fear, me! Coach Odom seemingly has no intention of decreasing any of our frontcourt’s time due to the availability of Devin and, the opposite, has actually looked for opportunities to play him at the SF some, in addition to backing up TDR. I can’t tell you enough about the warm and fuzzies I got with that confirmation (although his time at VCU and his defensive system also indicated as much).
No, Tillis has played about 16 mpg in his return which has kind of been perfect. The 13 or so to spell TDR and then a couple more at the SF for good measure to add some bigger wrinkles and see what works… but nothing too crazy. His ability to help on the offensive end has been notable, as expected. He’s just a smart player who makes good passes, sees the floor, and can really shoot the ball. We saw the skip pass he threw to Mallory earlier, but here’s a look at what he’s more commonly provided, below.
Here he starts in horns with Onyenso at the 5. Ugo takes the pass, Tillis leans on his own man to clear space, then cuts across toward Mallory. He faces open, and kind of sets an unknowing (or at least it looks that way) screen with his back for Chance. The pass back carries him inside of the three-point line, so he passes back to Ugo and clears through to the opposite corner, where he then takes the kick-out from Lewis and buries the three.
Tillis is shooting a massive 54.5% from three, albeit on low volume, from three so far this season AND 100% from the FT line. Those numbers should come down as he plays more games (remember, only 6 so far) but it’s still incredibly efficient in the opportunities that he’s getting. An elite conversion point so far.
Better yet, though, is that his defense hasn’t been anywhere near as worrisome as I thought, at least not yet. He’s been very good positionally, is doing a pretty decent job of using his physicality to slow down drivers despite not being overly quick, and has contested going straight up to some decent effect. It’s helping that he’s playing alongside the two best shot blockers in the ACC; but his defense at the SF has been a pleasant surprise, as well.
Now, I will say, there are glimpses of the concern that haven’t cropped up significantly yet but have the potential to be something as we roll into conference play. Here’s a play with him at the PF below. He gets lost on a switch with Lewis and is slow to recover back to his man. Fortunately, Ugo slides over and helps, bothering the shot, but Tillis can really do nothing but stand behind the play and watch as the ball goes to the other side of the rim and is put back in by Ugo’s initial man.
This happened quite a bit at UC Irvine where Tillis would often get kind of lost in the shuffle down low as bigger, longer guys played volleyball around the rim. It cropped up a lot when his 7-foot Center counterpart on that team would be drawn to help him and he couldn’t really help recover.
We’ll see where that goes against regular ACC competition but, for now, we’ve been able to mitigate it enough that it’s been more than worth accepting. For now, the role in which he’s been utilized is very apt.
Johann Grünloh
We’d seen that Johann was a skilled big and hoped for exciting things. What I wasn’t sure about personally was whether or not he’d struggle with more physical play, as he often did in Europe, and if he’d be too much of a finesse player. I also wondered if his defensive mobility was going to be able to keep up, or if we were going to need to go more defense/offense with Onyenso. Grünloh really surprised me in how versatile he’s been on both ends; especially the defensive side.
His outside shooting hasn’t even carried over that much yet, still just shooting 30% from deep and a very rough less than 50% (47.1%, to be exact) from the FT line. But, his well-rounded offensive game as a scorer, passer, and stretch player has proven incredibly valuable. Nowhere more so than with his activity in general and attack on the offensive glass. He’s averaging almost three offensive boards per game on the team with the 7th best OR rate in the country.
I thought this one was a good look at a lot of the little things he does adding up to hidden value. It’s a defensive rebound, followed by the confidence to start the break by himself on the dribble prior to flipping it to Lewis, and then the good hustle down the court to set a screen and then crash the glass for an impressive OR in traffic; getting the ball through three UMES players before kicking it out to Thomas.
That’s a great subtle look at Grünloh; keeping momentum and pressure on, facilitating your transition offense, keeping things flowing, and then netting you extra possessions.
And here, below, is a more overt look at his value; sticking with his man and erasing a reverse layup attempt at the rim:
He has the fourth highest blocks per game in all of college basketball and really only his teammate has him for block rate. If I was wondering about how his ability to protect the rim would translate… no longer. In fact, between he and Onyenso, they held Texas’s 7-footer (255lb), Matas Vokietaitis to 7 points on 2-7 shooting from the floor when he’s averaged 15.3ppg on the season. So, definitely shown the ability to hold up to some size, strength, and skill on the interior.
So, yeah. After watching film from him in Germany I thought we were getting an incredibly talented player but possibly one who was rougher around the edges, still a work in progress, and maybe someone who would need a little more time with Mike Curtis to deliver upon his expectations. While the latter will still help him, he’s been much more ready to sustain meaningful contributions than I had hoped.
Ugonna Onyenso
Considering I’d thought he could compete to start and would be in roughly an even timeshare with Johann, I’m still actually positively surprised with Ugo – which speaks to how well both Centers have played.
His natural ability as a rim protector has shown through; and his block rate is insane. In fact, his 2.7 blocks per game is only .2 behind Grünloh in 7 fewer minutes per game. And Johann, as we just discussed, is one of the best shot blockers in the country. Onyenso is probably the best. There’s just so much natural ability and he can make up so much space. Even when he’s beaten sometimes, he’s not.
Here’s a great example, below, of him losing track of his man for a second as he flashes to the elbow, not having to close out hard because he’s still a threat… then actually falling for the pump fake and jumping at the offensive player… only to be able to easily recover on the drive and send the ball into the band.
A band that, by the way, is still yelling “hands up” on free throws when our guys have the ball. Someone’s got to teach them this stuff… but I digress.
I think Ugo has been slightly better as a defender than I expected, but pretty much the same, imposing factor he showed in Kentucky that seemed like it could translate here.
The area I’ve been really impressed, though, is on the offensive side of the ball. He’s averaging 6.5 points per game – easily the highest of his career (almost double any other single season). He’s shown he can shoot from outside a little bit (nothing Earth-shattering at 25% but enough that he isn’t sagged off), he’s been a dangerous lob threat as expected, but it’s his touch around the rim and able to finish after collecting and coming to a standstill that I hadn’t seen previously.
Here’s a neat little play in the game where he starts by screening on Hall’s Iverson cut and then going right into the ball screen, taking the return pass on the roll. His momentum gets stopped and actually three UMES defenders swarm him, but he’s deep near the hoop and lengthy; so I really like how he pivots through this and then the touch he has to lay the ball in.
Ugo’s still got to work on his hands and alertness; especially with blind passes and balls that get to him low. He’s helped cause some turnovers from his unreadiness there. That being said, he’s shown a confidence as a finisher while in traffic that we haven’t seen, to date. It’s a big reason (along with drawing fouls) that his points have jumped up this year and it means that we’re averaging a good 15-16 points per game from our Center position when you combine his contributions with Johann’s.
There’s more skill there than I’d even hoped after positive rumblings this offseason!
Thijs De Ridder
TDR isn’t this low on this list because I’ve been disappointed; far from it. I still think he’s our best and most indispensable player this season. It’s just that I had such high expectations for him because I knew he was so good. He has met those so far.
It’s like, he’s been this good, averaging 16 points and 6 boards per contest, showing a full suite of skills, and I still think he’s adjusting to the game and what his role on the team is.
I’ve been most pleasantly surprised by his outside shooting. At 42.3% from deep, he’s higher than his career averages to date. And this shot from the game really got my attention because look at the release:
Because of the nearing close out, he barely brings the ball down on the catch, shortening and quickening his release… with no ill-effects on the outcome. That’s one way you can identify a quality shooter – the ability to minimize movement in their release when the timing/catch point allow for it. I expected him to be a mid-thirties three-point shooter… and he still might… but over 40% has surpassed my hopes.
It’s his attack and the versatility of ways in which he can score that brings such a steady reliability to the team, though, without ever feel like he’s sucking the air out of the room or demanding the ball. In fact, we’d probably benefit from him putting things on his shoulders a little bit more as the season wears on.
He often will be the one to provide the momentum-breaking bucket. Here, for example, UMES got within 10-points early in the second half, after some really sloppy play on our end. De Ridder takes the ball himself, rejects a screen from Grünloh, and beats his man from the perimeter to the rim with the aggressive finish:
We’ve talked before about how that 4 and 5 pick and roll threat can provide all kinds of issues. Johann can either pick and pop or be a lob threat and TDR can score from all three levels and is a monster when he gets the ball running toward the rim.
That being said, he can score in the midrange, off of the post up, off of the bounce, etc., and offers an eternal mismatch against most defenders. His unselfishness has been evident in his playstyle, he’s been sloppy at times with turnovers, but he’s always giving good energy as a defender, is still our leading scorer, and contributes all over the floor in all of the ways. His well-roundedness has been on full display; I’m just looking forward to that big contest down the road where he just goes off and decides to completely take over a game.
Jacari White
I did think Jacari had a chance to be a starter coming into the season; so his 18mpg have been lower than I’d want. That’s primarily been due to Chance and Sam’s minutes, though, so we can’t complain too much. He’s starting to eat into Malik’s time some, though, because he does just bring so much pop to the offensive side of the ball. I’d say that White has been every bit as talented as we saw in his most explosive games last year, like against Butler. His ability to shoot it from deep off of the bounce or contorting his body into awkward angles on the move:
Has been awesome. We saw him absolutely combust against Dayton – but it’s not just that game. His 50.9% three-point shooting on over five attempts per game… many of which are shots like that above or off the bounce which are so difficult. He’s been the best and most impressive shooter on the roster so far this season.
Additionally, he plays with such a spry energy where he’s always being aggressive; which translates to finding and facilitating for others as well. Here, below, you see him whip a pass down to Ugo to draw a foul pretty late in the shot clock when nothing else was going on.
His assist rate per minute played is the highest of his career, but his turnover rate per minute, because of that aggression is second highest on the team among the guards in the core rotation (also behind Thomas).
I’ve also been a little disappointed in his defense so far. There have been some rotational miscommunications and just some general plays where he’s getting beaten that you wouldn’t expect having watched him play previously. I think he definitely has the ability to improve in this area and, again, it mostly appears mental. I think with some more reps and opportunity, he’ll start to become a pest.
All of this being said, this is actually the player I’d like to see get the most increase to his minutes so, again, this list isn’t about which players I think are positively contributing the most, it’s about comparisons to expectations. I had high expectations for Jacari – more so as an impactful two-way player rather than more of an insane microwave on offense. He’s been the latter, though, and the potential is there for the former. I’d love to see him finish the season playing over half of the game, on average. For what it’s worth, our three best five-man lineup combinations that qualify all have Jacari in them and all are fairly similar in construction:
#1. Mallory/White/Lewis/De Ridder/Onyenso
#2. Mallory/White/Lewis/De Ridder/Grünloh
#3. Mallory/Hall/White/De Ridder/Grünloh
They’ve all got Mallory, De Ridder and, yes, White being used in that SG capacity (Hall typically defends the would-be SF in that lineup).
Dallin Hall
Dallin has taken some criticism, I think, primarily in contrast to Mallory and that he’s ostensibly the starter over Mallory. I’m not necessarily sure that’s a bad thing, though, because allowing Hall to get other players into the flow of the game and then injecting Mallory into the lineup has its merits and has been working quite well. He also plays quite well with Mallory.
I don’t think Hall has been bad. In fact, when you look at all of the things different players offer, Hall offers the calm. He takes what’s there, doesn’t and doesn’t force what isn’t – which makes him a relatively safe play but also one who isn’t going to create as much out of nothing. His defense is fine to good. He struggles more with quickness and does better guarding strength or guarding up in size. He had a really bad couple of games defensively, against Butler and Queens, but has been steady otherwise.
If anything, his offensive confidence has been growing throughout the season. He started the season cold from deep but, don’t look now, he’s actually up to 41.4% now and is fully confident just taking the opportunity when the defense gives it to him now:
That’s a welcome sign as well as his career high (by over 15%!) free throw shooting. What looked like it might be one of those situations where teams would start to pick their poison when defending the outside shot… and Dallin would be the poison they were willing to accept… now he’s just making them pay for it.
Offensively, he’s often the one playing with the most intention and steadiness. What I mean by that is like the clip below where he starts off by being patient, waiting for Grünloh to seal his man in the post, and delivering a bounce pass. When Johann doesn’t really do anything with it and dribbles it back out, Hall is undeterred and just runs the pick and roll and delivers the lob pass to him:
He’s our leading assist man with 3.7 per, and in a world where a lot of our guys (Mallory, Thomas, White, even TDR sometimes) are moving a mile a minute, he’s got more methodical approach, at times.
While we might be able to deal with a little less Hall, I absolutely wouldn’t want to deal with a lot less and think his penchant for clutch play is going to come plenty in handy throughout the season. It already has against Northwestern.
Where some of the disappointment does come in, though, is in his finishing and lack of explosives. We, as a team, missed too many layups and easy baskets in this game; but Dallin was a significant portion of that and is shooting a career-worst 34.8% from the floor despite shooting a career best from deep (and better than his % from the field). Basically, he’s only making 23.5% of his two-point FG attempts on the year. It’s nice to have him out there as a floor general. It’s great to have him getting other players involved. It’s fantastic that he’s found his outside shot and is thriving out there… but we need him to be a more effective driver. If he can threaten finishing himself, then it will be easier for everyone else, and he’ll draw more free throws (also generating at the lowest rate of his career).
As with all of our depth, but especially with our Guards, we want them all as fresh as possible… but you still have to weigh the value they’re bringing as defenders along with how they contribute on offense. Hall’s offensive perspective and contribution are different and valuable in how he steady’s the team and helps others contribute – but how do you rate that against some of the other splash offensive or steady defensive contributions some of our other guys offer? At 25.2 minutes, he’s playing the second most time on the team behind TDR. I wouldn’t trim a ton, but maybe this is where you find some of that additional time for Jacari and/or don’t trim from him if Malik gets going.
Which brings us to….
Malik Thomas
Thomas is the only player I’m accompanying with more than two clips; twice that. It’s because he has fallen short of delivery so far… but he’s also flashed so much potential and, I believe, is still supremely important to the upside of this team.
I’ve talked much of this season about his defensive struggles. He’s struggled with switches and rotations and seems to lose concentration at times; his over-aggression putting him in bad positioning with him lacking the quickness to recover. I’ve made the case that playing him with Dallin Hall has been especially rough, at times, due to the nature of how they slide. Giving up so much quickness on the perimeter at once has been a recipe for some easy baskets.
That being said, his offensive ability is undeniable, and we’re waiting on that to consistently provide more value than any defensive lapses. When it does, we can start to unlock some really scary offensive combinations without, ideally, giving up too much on the defensive end. And we have seen it. Against Marshall, he went for 18 points in just 19 minutes, shooting 4-5 from three and 7-9 from the floor. Against Butler, he went for 24 points on 9-17 shooting in our only loss… but also seemed like one of our few players who felt comfortable playing in that environment. Much of the team looked to him (and Chance) to help manufacture offense when not much else was working. As a team, we’ve worked on our passing and team basketball since then, but it was nice to see Malik step up in the moment.
As the season has progressed, though, the cost/benefit analysis has not been working out in his favor and he’s seen his minutes decrease. He averaged 30mpg at Greenbrier but has only averaged 17mpg in the four games since; including a season-low 13 minutes against Dayton. The team, too, has been playing its best basketball since this change. So, what’s going on with his offensive game?
I think he’s struggling to marry his playstyle with the teams, along with the expectations that he feels/has put on himself. That last part is a bit of reading the tea leaves because I haven’t spoken with him and am not in his head – but it’s watching him and the way he plays. He’s been a great teammate at least optically; staying engaged on the bench, cheering for his teammates, trying to share the ball… but he does seem to be in his head on the court and also trying to force things at times.
The most obvious element is his shooting. His 31.3% from deep on the season is 8% worse than the worst of his past two seasons. There are times where it feels completely natural (mostly when he’s playing in flow as we’ll see later); but others, like the look below, where he appears to really be over-thinking and almost aiming his shot:
It’s a cool action to get him free. Using Johann as a hub, representing a pin down screen for Hall who rejects and lets Malik pop… but he hesitates, gets a deep knee bend, feels like he’s aiming, and misses poorly.
Having watched his previous tape a lot, that’s a very un-Malik Thomas-feeling shot. But, when he’s had a little momentum in the game and is playing a little more in flow; we still get moments like this one, below. We’re up twenty. He’s pushing the ball in transition, takes a ball screen, gathers a slight mis-dribble, and just launches without much thought – mostly muscle memory.
That’s absolutely deadly, and is a great way snowball points fast against a defense that isn’t fully set nor expecting such a quick shot. It’s a good look for Malik if he’s shooting it in flow because they don’t get a good contest on it, and it’s the prime kind of shot that leads to an offensive rebound opportunity if there is a miss.
Okay, keep those two shots in mind, put a pin in them for a second. We’re going to talk about his creation off of the bounce and then tie both concepts together. Thomas is physical slasher and creative finisher who, at his best, does a nice job of supplementing that with trips to the foul line (although he’s just shooting FTs at 75% this year vs. 85% last year).
Here’s a great look and is exactly what we need from him. Nice inside-out dribble to stagger his man, uses the ball screen, uses pacing to freeze the defense and then dart down the lane, ends with a nice finish and trip to the foul line.
That’s a fantastic example of what he can bring to this team. Concentrated finishing that helps get the opposition in foul trouble. Good manipulation of the defense within the flow of the offense.
The problem is that too often, he’s forcing things and jamming the ball into traffic when the opportunity isn’t there. His 1.6 turnovers per game is the highest on the team. It’s mostly from stuff like this, below, where the driving lane closes on him, he takes the ball too far into a sea of hands, and loses control either with his handle or trying to gather.
In this game alone, he had four turnovers against UMES. The one above was similar to two others – him getting tied up and losing a jump ball while driving into traffic, and getting an offensive foul called pushing off in transition against a well-positioned defender. He also had a three-pointer blocked.
So, where do we go from here? The question for Malik is going to be how well he can find and adjust to his role on the team within the offense. What does that actually mean, though? It means, on a team with so many viable scoring options, can he let the game come to him? Can he take what’s there and open rather than trying to force things that aren’t? Can he thread the needle of deferring to others and playing team basketball when the situation calls for it, and then also flipping that switch and taking on more of the scoring burden when that situations calls for it; rather than having that be his sole identity. Or, conversely, does his offensive game rely on being a more ball-dominant player and needing a high percentage of usage?
If the latter is true, it might be an issue that doesn’t have an answer. All of our other guys who are skilled at getting their own bucket: Mallory, White, TDR, have been able to find this balance and navigate what the situation calls for. Sure, they’ve all made plenty of mistakes too, but the efficiency in their usage has been much higher, their empty possessions (turnovers) fewer, and their defense has also all been better (though White’s not as dramatically).
But, I firmly believe that if this team is going to reach its ceiling, we absolutely need Malik Thomas to carve out that role for himself. He doesn’t have to be the guy who puts the offense on his back whenever he’s in – nor should he try to. But he can absolutely be a deadly weapon who, just like Jacari… but in a different way, erupts for points when the opportunities present themselves. We’re going to need his finishing, his FT generation, his (hopefully) hot shooting. We’re going to need the confidence he can add to a lineup of players when he’s on his game. Preseason, he was the lone steadying factor and reliable source of offense! We’re only a handful of games removed from when that’s been true. We could blink and this could all seem like a distant issue and this just a temporary slump.
Easier said than done, but if Malik could just re-calibrate his expectations, put his mental energy into the defensive side of the ball and just play as one of five pieces on offense who will shoot open shots and drive open lanes while keeping the ball moving otherwise… I think we’d see the highest potential for this roster.
One final thought here – kudos to Coach Odom for assembling the kind of depth on this roster where perhaps our most anticipated player can be a little off to start the season and there’s a bunch of other guys capable of filling those shoes more than admirably. Additionally, I love that he’s been willing to alter minutes based on how guys like Thomas have been playing and isn’t tied to the preseason expectations around their production; or what they’ve done historically. You have to be able to adjust real-time to what’s happening, and he’s been all over it – while also not removing Thomas from the starting lineup – showing the belief is still there. I really like the approach.
Elijah Gertrude
No clips here, but worth mentioning that Elijah Gertrude has found himself on the outside looking in of the core rotation once Devin Tillis returned from injury. I was vocal this offseason about believing that he would be able to carve out a role on this team as a defensive stopper and transition player for us. His physical ability is prototypical Odom system. His lack of shooting and offensive polish has probably played a role – but it’s actually his defense that’s been most disappointing and that’s likely kept things from progressing. In the glimpses he’s been in, he’s been missing assignments and rotations far too consistently for someone fresh off of the bench whose primary role needs to be a defensive stopper. He’s also been beaten off of the drive a little too frequently as well.
Now, I still love Eli long-term and think there’s still some mental and physical adjustment to come from not having been able to play competitive basketball for so long (basically three full seasons with a few splotches of playability mixed throughout). I hope that he will continue to grow and develop his game, will stick with the program, and we’ll see him be able to stay healthy and be a key contributor his next two seasons. It’s not impossible that some of that progression will happen throughout this season and he’ll get some more opportunities that he’ll be able to leverage into a role still. That being said, I’m not expecting it based on how things are going, and think we should primarily expect the core nine guys who are playing right now to be the main rotation in competitive minutes.
In Conclusion
I’m absolutely thrilled with how well this team has gelled given the almost entirely new roster. The level of play we’ve been able to reach when firing on all cylinders has been fantastic. I truly believe that we can compete with anyone when we’re playing like that. The consistency and sustainability has been the biggest question (outside of ball room shooting). With spurts of quality also have come lapses and mental mistakes. That’s to be expected, given everything, but it’s where we can tighten things over the season.
I’m always encouraged when I look at a team, it’s playing well, and there are obvious and achievable ways in which it can still improve. I think that’s where we are now – very competitive but not yet maxed out. We aren’t the final product; and we should expect a few more moments throughout the season that make that obvious, but I’m optimistic that we can get there and, when we do, we will be a very difficult out.
Alright, thanks for coming along this slightly different style of game recap. Almost a non-con recap, but we’ve got a struggling Maryland team coming to JPJ on Saturday who… also gave Michigan a good game for about 30 minutes? Let’s not leave this one in doubt… and don’t forget to give Elijah Saunders a warm welcome back!
Enjoy the remainder of the break!
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