Year one of Ryan Odom as Head Coach of the Virginia Men’s Basketball Team is in the books and I must say that I’m very encouraged! Of course, I’d much rather we still be playing and heading into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but it wasn’t meant to be this year. Still, a 30-win season, a 2nd place finish in both the ACC regular season and tournament, a top 10 national ranking when the regular season ended, and a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament – that is an incredibly encouraging start! Keep in mind, we were predicted, on aggregate, to finish 5th in the conference, were ranked in the 40s in pre-season estimates, and this was a roster that was built almost entirely from scratch directly in the wake of a coaching search while turning the page on the most painful season of the CTB era (although he wasn’t coaching at the time, it was his staff and roster it serves as the bookend for that era).
I was considering whether or not a “State of the Program” piece was needed considering it’s all so fresh… but then I thought, of course it is! The fact that it’s still so fresh is a great reason to do one. So, that will be upcoming here over the next few weeks after I have a chance to recharge the batteries from the season grind. In the meantime, you may remember this piece from past seasons (we took a year off last year given how that all unfolded) where I look back at my pre-season piece where I discussed what I thought would be best for playing time and rotations for this season. I’ll review what happened compared to what I’d thought would likely be best at the time and see where I was right, where I was wrong and, if anywhere, where those opinions diverged from what the staff thought. It’s a good opportunity for me to learn about Odom’s tendencies as they relate to OUR team, and to reflect on my pre-season thought process at the time.
Given that there are a full season’s worth of game recaps on the homepage, this will be slightly shorter than my standard pieces as the “show your work” portion of the conclusions drawn are documented in all of those. Basically, I’ll outline what my thought was preseason in terms of playing time, what actually happened, summarize why it played out as it did, and then give a conclusion on whether my pre-season hope was aligned or not with what happened, as well as whether or not the thought was correct, in retrospect. So as a reminder for that rating scale because it can be a bit confusion – was my preseason hope correct or incorrect in terms of what I believe should have happened now that the season is over, and then was I aligned or misaligned in that though with what Odom actually did. Okay! This should be fun – let’s get into it!
Carter Lang, PF
Preseason Hope: 0 MPG
Actual: 2 MPG
Thoughts: I won’t belabor the point on this one but feel like I should still call it out because it was discussed preseason and, inevitably, there are always people who are adamant that he could have a productive role for this team. I’ll just say, I think he was very well-cast in his supporting bench role. He’s a much more competitive practice player than many historic walk-on options, but there really aren’t any situations where he should have been getting game minutes. Even when Tillis was hurt, going smaller OR playing both Centers were more attractive options. I love having Lang on the team from his ties to the city and his camaraderie with the other STAB players on the roster – but, ideally, we can put to bed these discussions. Our bar needs to correctly be set higher, and Odom agreed.
Verdict: Correctly Aligned
Silas Barksdale, PF
Preseason Hope: 0 MPG Redshirt?
Actual: 0 MPG Redshirt
Thoughts: It’s kind of unclear what a redshirt actually means in the current environment. Will there be a ruling that all players get 5 years of eligibility regardless? If so, when will that be applied and how? It’s unclear. It seems like a retroactive nightmare considering some of these four-year post-COVID guys who have just graduated. So, given the current state of things and the team’s roster build, this felt like a solid opportunity to maximize eligibility for a talented player. Here’s the thing – I’m not actually sure it wouldn’t have been better to have him available at times this season both for when Tillis was out of the lineup, then when he got re-injured, and even just when we started playing teams with bigger and more athletic frontcourts. He wasn’t an experienced player, at all, but are we sure it just wouldn’t have been better to have Barksdale out there defending Cam Boozer or Malik Reneau when De Ridder had to rest? I’m not entirely positive that’s the case. That being said, I also have very little knowledge about the development of his offensive game aside from the idea that he’s been working (and succeeding at) extending his range beyond the three-point line comfortably. For as detrimental as Tillis was on the defensive side of the ball to close the season, he still hit some big shots and made some nice passes to help mitigate that damage. The idea that Barksdale as a Freshman with so little experience would have provided such a defensive boon that it would have compensated for a lack of refined offensive game and that would have also been worth burning the redshirt to (ostensibly, if you can keep him) get a full four years out of him… I am finding it hard to believe that calculation. Additionally, Barksdale seemed like a willing redshirt and, in the area of NIL, when you’re borderline to play at all but are still a top 100 recruit-level talent, it’s probably better personally to preserve that eligibility as well. Point being, unlike some redshirt situations of years past, I don’t get any sense of angst or displeasure from the decision. All things considered, I don’t think that having Barksdale available would have helped us beat Duke in the ACC Tournament or to get past Tennessee, and I don’t think we’re at any additional risk of losing him from the decision, so I feel good about where this landed.
Verdict: Correctly Aligned
Martin Carrère
Preseason Hope: 0 MPG
Actual: 4 MPG
Thoughts: Wait, why am showing a Sam Lewis layup off of a Blind Pig action? Is it to illustrate how we had these looks in our offense all year? No, it’s to show an ACC game where we were only up 5 points with a minute to go in the first half and Martin Carrère is running point! He’s 6’9″!
This, I believe, is the staff’s long-term vision for Carrère – or at least their hope for what he could be. After watching him struggle on defense off the ball this year, seeing how much strength he still needs to put on, but being pleasantly surprised with his ball handling, I’m in. At least, this is where the juice is. As a backup wing or even a small ball PF, I’m not that excited. It’s possible that he could develop into a good player there, but he’s got a ways to go and the upside doesn’t wow me. There are a ton of players at the 3 and 4 who can shoot from outside these days; but you get excited about guys who can do that while defending those positions well. They aren’t really mismatches, especially if they aren’t physical presences. In some ways, he could be like a skinny Jake Groves with a little more mobility and better handles. That’s not a differentiator on a team hoping to compete for championships or, at least, deep NCAA runs. Have him as a 6’9″ PG who can shoot, lean on smaller players, and facilitate, though? Use his size and length to his advantage to loom over opposing PGs? We saw the quickness-challenged Rohde do this at 6’6″ somewhat effectively on the ball last season – Carrère appears just as mobile and adds three more inches on top of that. While there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to play that role effectively, he’s certainly not there yet, but that’s where the upside is and I like the imagination of the staff.
All of that being said, he got a few spot minutes here and there in meaningful moments, during the Tillis injury, during some foul trouble issues. There were some flashes where you saw the potential – but by and large he just wasn’t ready this year to contribute yet and wasn’t on the floor during meaningful time down the stretch. Bulk up, keep working on that handle, work on that lateral quickness and see where that shakes out (assuming he stays). But, for this year we were…
Verdict: Correctly Aligned
Elijah Gertrude
Preseason Hope: 10 MPG
Actual: 6 MPG
Thoughts: The minutes don’t look that far off but that was mostly because Eli got a stretch of healthy run while Devin Tillis was hurt during mostly buy games when things weren’t competitive. He was a DNP or just earned end of game minutes primarily as the season closed, though. This is the first one where I whiffed in the preseason, as I truly believed that he’d be a significant portion of the rotation. I also underestimated how much Mallory would play, though, so more on that later. Knowing the pace at which Odom likes to push the ball and how he likes his defenses to pressure, I anticipated that Eli could carve out a role for himself as a shut-down defender and to be a spark plug in transition. You can see his explosiveness in that clip above. And, when he was on the floor, he had a few explosive plays like this that made you sit up and take notice… it was like he was good for one eye-popping thing a game. The problem was, he went 2-13 from three on the season, and when he was in on offense, the ball often stuck, there was over-dribbling, and his lack of ability to punish things from outside was evident. I think we could have lived with that, though, if his defense had lived up to its promise. Instead, his defensive rating in terms of BPR (EvanMiya stat) was third-worst on the team ahead of only Tillis and White to align with his negative offensive rating. It was evident on the floor, too. He wasn’t alert away from the ball and would pretty regularly get lost in his coverages and even his defense on ball wasn’t as suffocating or impactful as you’d expect. Too often, you’d see guys just surprise him and get by him on their drives – something that was surprising to see against a player with Eli’s athleticism. In the end, he found himself on the outside looking in at the rotation, especially once Jacari White regained his health – which was the correct call given how things shook out.
We’ll see what happens with Eli this offseason. It was unfortunate because he still wasn’t fully healthy throughout the offseason prior to this one as he recovered from that knee injury. That dunk at the end of the N.C. State game looked like someone who was finally feeling closer to pre-injury levels (although he showed some flashes of that throughout the season). The thing is, he fits so well into how Odom likes to play with his athleticism. If he can keep improving that three-point shot and get more reps in the defense, he could be someone who explodes next year for us… OR, he could just as easily find himself staring down another disappointing season. I doubt that a player as gifted as he is wouldn’t be able to carve out a role – but of course I thought that prior to this year as well. I hope he stays and his investment in the school and in Mike Curtis pays off for him.
Verdict: Incorrectly Misaligned
Devin Tillis
Preseason Hope: 13 MPG
Actual: 16 MPG
Thoughts: Here’s one where Odom came around to my way of thinking. Over the final 10 games of the season, Tillis averaged 12 minutes per game. Some of this was due to decreased efficacy after re-injuring his knee midway through the year, but this was always a situation where we had the worst depth. Both of our Centers had each other, we had two strong PG options who could also play at the same time and 3 SG/SF options – any could get hot and take over a game. This was a situation throughout the year, and increasingly by the end, where when De Ridder was out, we could expect a drop off, on both ends, but especially on the defensive end. Tillis had some real craftiness to his game, as shown in that clip above, could shoot the ball (37.5% on the season), and made some intuitive passes, but his limited mobility and verticality really made it hard for us to effectively contest shot attempts and secure the glass, especially as we started to play more athletic competition. We went from an attempt to get him more time earlier in the season by playing him at SF some (including a misguided 39 minutes against Virginia Tech in the 3 OT loss) to realizing by the end of the year that he was best utilized to simply spell TDR or to help keep him out of foul trouble. In the instances of Eli or Martin, we had plenty of depth to play through when they didn’t quite get where they needed but, in this instance, it did create one of the few vulnerabilities on the team when Tillis was on the floor and we didn’t really have another recourse. Before the season, this is where most of my misgivings about the roster build were – I correctly identified that Tillis’s game wouldn’t translate as well at this level due to the superior level of athlete he’d be facing on a game-to-game basis. His midrange post-game wasn’t nearly as effective, and his defense often gave the opposition a clear crack to attack.
Next year, if we’re going to be playing so much depth again (as I assume we will), I’d hope this would be a lesson in the importance of size and athleticism at the major conference level, especially in the frontcourt. Don’t get lured in by skill and experience if the ability to create the shots and defend them will be limited.
All of that being said, I’m glad Devin Tillis was on this team. He was ostensibly a great teammate and had the perfect personality to help build the culture under the Ryan Odom era. As a first-year player for us on a roster full of guys who could have been considered mercenaries, on the heels of the CTB era, having a guy who was so outgoing and so willing to engage with the school and community was no small thing. When I look back, I’ll think there was a lesson learned on the ball side, but I’ll still think fondly of Tillis himself and am glad he was able to put his personal stamp on this season.
Verdict: Correctly Aligned (by the end of the season)
Chance Mallory
Preseason Hope: 10 MPG
Actual: 24 MPG
Thoughts: This was easily my biggest miss, which was funny, because I remember thinking that I was being bold predicting him to get 10 minutes per game, and that I was higher on his ability to contribute immediately than most would be. I was sold, like he’s going to be the backup PG to Hall and he’s going to show some flashes that are going to make people really excited for his 2-4 years. Well, that part was true, but I still completely underestimated just how ready he was to contribute and what a spark plug he would be for this team. I just thought it was going to take him a little bit longer to adjust to the speed and size of the collegiate game. Nope. What I was most pleasantly surprised by was his defense. There were times during the end of the season that teams started to go after him off of switches but, for the most part, he held up really well to opponents trying to use their size against him due to his scrappiness and physicality/strength. It wasn’t the inviting place to go that you would normally expect from a 5’10” player on that end. But the best part is that his contributions were wide-reaching and varying. He was a good rebounder, he generated a healthy amount of steals, he protected the ball and had a good assist to turnover ratio, he was crafty and could draw fouls, he had a diversity of ways he could finish in the lane, and he was a good shooter (although that cooled toward the end of the year).
The passion with which he played was infectious too, as you see with him holding up the “Virginia” on his jersey after possibly the most memorable play of the season in the ACC Tournament against Miami. Chance wasn’t just ready to impact the game, he often closed it and was, throughout the season, one of our most important players. Assuming he returns, which is never a given but I’m quite hopeful, it’s going to be exciting to see how it goes with him as the starter, having full reign, and another offseason of work on his game.
Verdict: Incorrectly Misaligned (and thrilled about it)
Jacari White
Preseason Hope: 23 MPG Starter
Actual: 17 MPG
Thoughts: One of Odom’s great strengths throughout the season, I thought, was that he had a good sense of who was playing well and who wasn’t, and he steered playing time toward the end of games pretty dramatically toward guys who were on that night. Jacari is the lone guy, really of everyone, who I thought should have had just a little more run throughout the season. Now, some of his lower minute games come from his wrist injury and he didn’t get as much time when he was first getting back into games – so the actual average would be a little closer to my hope – but still. He wasn’t the starter. I didn’t mind him not starting (certainly over Lewis… but even when Thomas was struggling, I thought it better to keep things stable), but he as certainly worthy of starter’s minutes often. His defense graded out to be the worst of the guards who played heavily in the rotation. I agreed with that throughout the totality of the season, but I actually didn’t think it was that much worse than, say Thomas’s (who improved as the season progressed) by the end of the year and he was often good for a splash steal or a long rebound that turned into quick points. And, really, that was Jacari – the ability to create quick points in a hurry and to get hot out of nowhere. If it was clear he was flamethrowing early, he’d get his run, but too often he was forgotten as an option to give us a little punch or even when he was playing well. For example, against Butler when not much else was working for us in the ball room, Jacari was 5-7 from the floor for 14 points but only played 19 minutes. This was likely because Malik Thomas was also playing well – but Sam really wasn’t playing that well, and Chance was over-relied on in that one with Hall in foul trouble. That’s just one example, but it underscored one of the few and slight rotational things that I thought we could improve in that we often viewed it a little too much as either White or Thomas (which – their metrics on the floor together were not good so I get that – but a lot of that was from the early season when they were both the slowest to adjust to the defense and so having them on the floor together hurt more) as opposed to finding a little more space for both to contribute offensively in the same game. Specifically, even though I thought both of our PGs played well together, I didn’t think we needed to play Hall and Mallory together quite as much and could have carved out a little more space for Jacari. Maybe you just shave like 2-3 mins per game from Dallin and like 1 minute from each of your other three guards and now, suddenly, you’ve got White back up in that 23 min range. Toward the end of the season, in most games, both White and Thomas were clicking on offense, so getting just a little more time for each without it coming at the cost of the other would have been better. Or even, for example, in the games where he’s absolutely cooking – Dayton, FSU, Wright State… he still only got 24, 21, and 24 minutes in those games respectively – and two were very close throughout! In fact, his highest minute total for the season was 28 (twice) and one of those was the final game ostensibly due to Thomas hurting his wrist on a fall. Raising his ceiling for minutes more would have also been better in addition to raising his floor. It’s hard when you have five quality options across three guard positions, but I do feel comfortable saying that if White had been given a little more consistent playing time that would have been a little more ideal.
Verdict: Correctly Misaligned
Ugonna Onyenso
Preseason Hope: 21 MPG Starter
Actual: 19 MPG
Thoughts: This is my favorite receipt to bring out because there really wasn’t much fanfare about Onyenso after his season at Kansas State. There were questions about his attitude (which is absolutely crazy in retrospect), there were national people not even including him in their assessments about the team and making the case that if he was contributing much it would be a bad sign for UVa. There was also the prevailing thought that Grünloh was going to be a star as a potential Day 2 NBA prospect and European pro, and would play the bulk of the minutes. Having watched intently how Odom runs his systems and then watching the film on both, I was convinced that they’d basically have an even time share this season, play a full 40 minutes between them (basically no small ball), AND that was a good thing because Ugo was going to be a better defensive presence in Odom’s drop coverage which we would value. I made the case that we’d probably value his defensive edge over Grünloh’s offensive contributions given our roster design (although Johann was/is also a good defender back there). Well, all of that kind of came together and, by the second half of the season, even though we didn’t change our actual starters, Ugo was playing starter’s minutes. Both did a very good job in their roles (I thought our Center position was our strongest all year – and is why we lead the country in blocked shots and were also one of the top offensive rebounding teams), but Ugo’s defense did become the most valued element as the quality of our opponents and the pressure they could put on the rim improved (some of this was also necessitated by Johann’s wrist injury – but Ugo was playing well even before that). He shattered the ACC Tournament record for blocked shots and held the ACC, and likely National, Player of The Year to 3-17 shooting from the floor in that game. He fit the defensive scheme perfectly and was just a force of nature back there in defense of the rim with the second highest block % in the country and best at the major conference level. What came as a surprise, though, was that his offensive game was much better than he showed on tape at any of his previous stops. That three-point shot is the thing everyone talked about (which, at 28%, wasn’t really very good but it was still impressive that he would take them to force the defense to guard him out there and he did hit some big ones), but he was just an all-around better finisher around the rim than previously shown. He was always a dangerous lob threat and he always ran the floor well, but it was his strength and confidence with the ball and his patience to gather and go up in traffic (and to make the shot) that was much better than advertised. All-in-all, I felt spot on about this one and it’s going to be hard to replace Onyenso’s level of athleticism, length, and anticipation next season. If I’m betting, that backup Center role (hoping that Johann returns) is the most likely position we face a quality drop off from this year to next.
Verdict: Correctly Aligned
Johann Grünloh
Preseason Hope: 19 MPG
Actual: 21 MPG Starter
Thoughts: Johann was probably a little underrated this season due to the contrast with Ugo as an interior defender, due to the fact that he hit a little bit of a slump just before the end of the season that he fought through, and due to his broken wrist early in the ACC Tournament keeping him from being able to shoot for the remainder of the season. I’d say, on the whole, this was a bit of an adjustment season for Grünloh – but he was still really good! He was still one of the top 10 shot blockers in the country. He was very good on the offensive glass. His shooting confidence progressed throughout the season to the point where he was shooting at his best prior to the unfortunate injury and managed 35% on the season. He was a good passer, ran the floor well, finished when he had a head of steam going at the rim… all valuable things. In fact, per Evan Miya, he was the fourth most valuable player on the team this past season.
Where I think fans were left wanting, a bit, was that he did kind of disappear a times, he got into foul trouble, he wasn’t as strong around the rim, and his ability to create a basket for himself was severely limited. When he got the ball near the basket with a defender behind him, he’d often need to either kick the ball out or he pretty much just had the hook shot that he’d go do. Johann will, perhaps more than anyone, benefit from a full offseason of bulking up with strength training. If he can stand up to opposing bigs physically just a little bit more, develop a little more of a post-game, and then just keep refining that outside shooting (it really felt like our offense was at its best and everything opened up when he WAS shooting well, like in that Miami game above), I could see him take a huge stride heading into next season. I hope he stays; he will be a fantastic building-block at an important position if he does.
Verdict: Correctly Aligned
Sam Lewis
Preseason Hope: 22 MPG
Actual: 25 MPG Starter
Thoughts: The distinction between starter and not seems minimal here as the minutes desired were pretty close, but I’d argue that both Odom and I slightly undervalued Sam’s import this year – so I’m going to be strict and ding myself here. Coming into the season, I viewed Lewis as more of a pure stand in the corner spot up three-point shooter who was also very good in transition. I commented on his upside but also raised some question marks around his ability to create off of the bounce from a standstill and his ability to stay locked in on the defensive end. Not only did Sam assuage these concerns, I thought he was our most improved player over the course of the season both from where he started and from what he showed at Toledo. He was equally valuable because his player-type (the 6’7″ athletic wing) wasn’t something we had anywhere else on the roster and, although we could adequately play with three guards alongside De Ridder and a Center, it wasn’t quite as good as when Sam was in there and playing well. Now, he wasn’t always playing well, and his time was adjusted accordingly, but more often than not it was incredibly valuable to have him out there, so much so that he earned All ACC Tournament First Team honors. While his season-long usage wasn’t far off my hopes, I think his general role and indispensability by year end was more important and impactful than I’d expected – so I’m going to ding myself a little here.
Specifically, his defense and his help off the ball surprised me compared to what he’d previously shown, and he was much improved at playing with the ball in his hand. That game-tying shot against N.D., above, was not only difficult, but it was a pull-up three which wasn’t nearly as much of his game last year. I think the sky is the limit for Sam (within reason). He showed his ability to impact both ends in a variety of ways while remaining over a 40% three-point shooter. Having been the only player on the roster who has overtly said he IS returning next year, I’m very excited to see how his game is refined in his final collegiate season. He’s already shown the development to compete at the highest collegiate level (while earning honors), and will have a full season of system-familiar under his belt next year.
Verdict: Incorrectly Aligned
Dallin Hall
Preseason Hope: 25 MPG Starter
Actual: 28 MPG Starter
Thoughts: I’d have liked to see just a couple fewer Hall minutes to spread the PGs out just a bit more to make more room for White and Lewis (and Thomas when he was on), but this is still pretty darn close. Hall shouldn’t have been our minutes leader on the team, plain and simple, but some of that is that we just could have played TDR a little more and it wouldn’t have taken a ton to reposition Hall back a few slots. There were less than 7mpg separating the most and 6th most minutes played on the roster and all 9 guys in the core rotation were between 15 and 29 minutes. He’s a confusing player to discuss because a lot of his value didn’t show up on the scoresheet – although he did have the best assist to turnover ratio in the ACC and 19th best in the entire country. He was a very good rebounder for the position, his defense improved dramatically from the early stretches of the season until the end, and he was very switchable due to his size and strength – but he also wasn’t a great defender and wasn’t the most ideal fit for a lot of things Odom loves from his guards regarding quickness and a willingness to be aggressive with his outside shot. In fact, Hall shot the three ball the worst of his career this season at 32%, and although it seemed like he often rose to the occasion in bigger moments, he was reluctant to try to make a significant impact scoring the ball himself unless the game flow seemed like he absolutely needed to. That being said, he still did a really nice job of setting the table for the offense, getting guys where they needed to be, playing good help defense, and just being solid with the basketball. In fact, as the season closed and the games got tight and sweaty against great competition, it was often Dallin’s steadying presence that kept us in games or helped us to claw back in. Of course, that worked for a while against Tennessee until it didn’t at the very end, and we kind of oddly went away from De Ridder after we took the lead by 1 – which ultimately sealed our fate.
Hall’s leadership and experience were welcomed, and he was a great player for Chance to learn from because his skill set wasn’t necessarily great at the things Chance was already good at – but he did some of the things where Mallory has opportunity to grow quite well. Often, he was a stabilizing force at the guard position when each of our other four guys could get a little sped up and a little careless with the ball at times (or make a poor decision). At the end of the day, I think we’ll look back and think that Dallin Hall wasn’t quite the ideal system fit and that we could stand to target a few more player profiles at the position that more ideally fit everything we’re trying to do. That being said, he was still a bit underrated in what he did offer, tempering our collective recklessness. Despite all of this, in my mind, he was still just the slightest bit overplayed, but not for Mallory, for White and, sometimes, Thomas – but not so much that I’m going to say he was out of scope for what his role should have been. A lot of conflicting thoughts around Hall that mostly circle back to fit, while still thinking that he was a successful target that gave this roster a good deal of what it was missing.
Verdict: Correctly Aligned
Malik Thomas
Preseason Hope: 30 MPG Starter
Actual: 23 MPG Starter
Thoughts: Thomas was such a journey this season. He started all year, but his minutes fluctuated pretty dramatically – ranging from a season-low 13 against Dayton to a season-high 33 @SMU. His defense started out probably the worst of any of the guards at ramping up into our system and what was expected of him (White and Hall had their struggles too early). By the end of the year, he was doing much better, though, limiting his fouling, and keeping his man in front. He was always a good rebounder for the position. His shooting never quite got to where his previous to seasons were, neither from the floor, beyond the arc, or even the FT line. Perhaps the pressure of his role or the jump up in competition from the WCC played a part in that – but he actually started off the year at his worst and kind of worked his way back into form throughout the season. Then he slumped again, and then he recovered again. It went in basically two and a half major cycles throughout the year. I think that some of it was a big adjustment from his role at San Francisco vs. what it was here. There, it was almost more of a taking turns playstyle where they would rotate who would be ball-dominant and take shots. Here, the offense was more equal opportunity taking what the defense gave you. Additionally, his ability to force the ball into traffic and also to get to the free throw line was greatly diminished – he took more that 50% fewer free throws this season from last, which was a big blow to his scoring output. He still was the second-leading scorer on the team, but the hope was that he would be the leading scorer who you could count on for volume in most games.
I was impressed by Odom’s willingness to bring in a guy like Thomas, who averaged basically 20ppg and who was so highly sought after, and scale his minutes back dramatically when he wasn’t defending and when his offense was slumping. Odom had a good sense of when guys were off their game and adjusted accordingly most of the year, and he wasn’t influenced by factors like how important a player was expected to be to the team. To his credit Thomas seemed to take all of this well, was ostensibly a very supportive teammate, and continued to work hard to get himself back on the floor in meaningful situations. There was no give up in his game. This was primarily Thomas adjusting to his role and level of competition, but the regrettable element to all of this is that I do think some of Odom’s trust was permanently lost. Or, mainly, that he was pretty quick to steer away from big Thomas minutes unless it was clear he was just cooking. Now, to be clear, most of the time this was a subtle difference. The most glaring element to this was the three-OT game at Virginia Tech where it was clear that Thomas needed more run and wasn’t played nearly enough. After that game, things got much better for him again regarding his time share. In the ACC Tournament Championship game against Duke, he got up to 30 minutes, scored 18-points, and played quite well against the best competition he’d face on the year (after really struggling in Cameron). There were just some slight moments where I thought the game flow could have called on him just a little more. He played really well from basically the second VT game on and didn’t really see a significant minute bump in most situations except for that Duke game. This was even a little more perplexing because he was often acting as a bit of a closer – taking big shots, getting to the foul line, etc., at the end of these games. Again, a smaller minutes discrepancy with White, and it was correct when you look at the full scale of the season, but I think we so got into the habit of closing things down with Hall, Mallory, and then whichever of the other three guards were playing best, we didn’t quickly enough re-evaluate whether we should go away from that toward the end of the year. At the end of the day, I think Odom’s use of Thomas (or reduced) was certainly correct compared to the minute share I’d earmarked for him to start the season, though.
Verdict: Incorrectly Misaligned
Thijs De Ridder
Preseason Hope: 27 MPG Starter
Actual: 28 MPG Starter
Thoughts: De Ridder was our best and most important player this year and it wasn’t even remotely close. He was our leading scorer, leading rebounder, third on the team in FG% despite attempting the most shots, shot 36% from three, and was also third on the team in steals and blocks. He was also easily our most versatile defender (not best, see section on Ugo), who could switch 1-5 and defend pretty much anyone with as much efficacy. Especially surprising to the opposition was when they would get him switched onto their primary ball handler, thinking it was a mismatch, only to be disappointed very quickly. Wise teams toward the end of the season mostly just ran looks to get him switched AWAY from the ball, when they could, or just left his man camping away from the play. Teams started double-teaming him or shading him with help pretty assertively toward the end of the season – even Duke. And even when he didn’t have his offensive game going, his defensive quality was consistent. There were many reasons he made First Team All-ACC. But, aside from all of that, he also had the biggest drop off from his level of play to his backup when he sat… which tied everything into one big package of indispensable. I almost labeled this category “Incorrectly Aligned” because I think closer to 31-33mpg would have actually been better… and the only reason I didn’t is because there was value in keeping him rested throughout the grind of a season with our style of play. In fact, against Tennessee, I think you’d have been better off just playing him as much as you could at that point.
So, really odd, then, that there was this undercurrent (and undercurrent is correct, it wasn’t overly popular, but it was definitely there) of disappointment with him by the end of the year. Perhaps it was because his actual worst game of the year was against Duke in the ACC Tournament Final and with even a below average offensive game and we probably take that trophy. His second worst game was against Hampton… it really wasn’t quality of competition that dictated it. He played very well against plenty of quality PFs Duke the first time, Tennessee, Miami, UNC, NC State, Texas… he held Nick Martinelli to 9 points on 3-12 shooting (he averaged 23ppg on the season). Perhaps it was because there were still visible areas where he could improve his game; especially in limiting turnovers off of the bounce (he actually did dramatically reduce his fouling as the season progressed). Against Tennessee, he played a massive role in bringing the team back from down 9-points multiple times in the second half on his way to a game-high 22-points while shooting 57% from the floor and 67% from three and there were still many like, “well, if he’d played this way in the first half….” That’s not always how it works. Perhaps the undercurrent was because there was an understanding of just how good he was and the desire for him to be more assertive at times – but some of that might actually be a criticism of the offensive system that is often designed for the open shot rather than the player. In fact, when we took the lead 71-70 on his three, he never took a shot the rest of the game from there – which was a pretty big miss considering how he was the key driver of the comeback. Anyway, his presence on the roster gave a lot of skill and toughness and he was the most common player we would get big shots and plays from over the span of the season.
The discussion now that he is very open to staying, in fact, you never know what’s going to happen but I’m going to say at this point it’s more likely than not (and promptly knock on wood) – that prospect should excite all fans of the team. Specifically, if you can somehow keep all of Mallory, Lewis, Grünloh AND De Ridder… and dare I hope, we could have something special cooking next season. Finally, this, along with Johann, was such a successful foray into the international player pool! That has the potential to be hit or miss – and we had two massive hits with regard to translating talent overseas into successful performance here.
Verdict: Correctly Aligned
In Conclusion
And there you have it! This season was probably the most gratifying I’ve had since writing this site primarily because I also had to start fresh. For 15 years prior, there was familiarity with our offensive and defensive systems as well as how CTB was inclined to prioritize and play players. If you were in tune with that, you often had a pretty good sense around what his preferences would be with a player (occasionally you’d be surprised, like with how long it took Jordan Minor to get into the starting lineup or with how much time Kody Stattmann and Armaan Franklin played at the PF) but it was more of an exercise in thinking about where differing from those lines might be beneficial.
This season, it was crunching years of film across three other schools and trying to determine how the pieces Ryan Odom brought in would fit into those preferences. It was gratifying, then, to watch the season play out in roughly the way those seasons informed. To see that and then also to have so few disagreements with how the pieces were used together was a rewarding feeling. So, in addition to enjoying watching the team win 30 games, finish 2nd in the ACC, and break the NCAA Tournament win drought, the writing about and analyzing the team was refreshing personally, as well.
Next year, we’ll see how this momentum continues and, hopefully, we can make a deeper run into the postseason (although Tennessee is playing very formidably and should give us confidence that we weren’t far away ourselves this year, either). I’m going to give things a week or two here as we start to head into portal season, but I will do a broader “State of The Program” piece as well. Then it will be waiting for all of the transfers aligning prior to starting the “Tracking A Transfer” pieces again.
Until then, thanks for reading!
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